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BR caricatureWith a Fed decision queued up for tomorrow, let’s take a look at how the rates picture has evolved this year.

The Fed has continued to act like speculators, placing bets on the prospects of fiscal stimulus and hotter growth. And they’ve proven not to be very good.

​Remember, they finally kicked off their rate “normalization” plan in December of 2015.  With things relatively stable globally, the slow U.S. recovery still on path, and with U.S. stocks near the record highs, they pulled the trigger on a 25 basis point hike in late 2015.  And they projected at that time to hike another four times over the coming year (2016).

​Stocks proceeded to slide by 13% over the next month.  Market interest rates (the 10 year yield) went down, not up, following the hike — and not by a little, but by a lot.  The 10 year yield fell from 2.33% to 1.53% over the next two months.  And by April, the Fed walked back on their big promises for a tightening campaign.  And the messaging began turning dark.  The Fed went from talking about four hikes in a year, to talking about the prospects of going to negative interest rates.

​That was until the U.S. elections.  Suddenly, the outlook for the global economy changed, with the idea that big fiscal stimulus could be coming.  So without any data justification for changing gears (for an institution that constantly beats the drum of “data dependence”), the Fed went right back to its hawkish mantra/ tightening game plan.

​With that, they hit the reset button in December, and went back to the old game plan.  They hiked in December.  They told us more were coming this year.  And, so far, they’ve hiked in March and June.

​Below is how the interest rate market has responded.  Rates have gone lower after each hike.  Just in the past couple of days have, however, we returned to levels (and slightly above) where we stood going into the June hike.

But if you believe in the growing prospects of policy execution, which we’ve been discussing, you have to think this behavior in market rates (going lower) are coming to an end (i.e. higher rates).

As I said, the Hurricanes represented a crisis that May Be The Turning Point For Trump.  This was an opportunity for the President to show leadership in a time people were looking for leadership.  And it was a chance for the public perception to begin to shift.  And it did. The bottom was marked in Trump pessimism.  And much needed policy execution has been kickstarted by the need for Congress to come together to get the debt ceiling raised and hurricane aid approved.  And I suspect that Trump’s address to the U.N. today will add further support to this building momentum of sentiment turnaround for the administration. With this, I would expect to hear a hawkish Fed tomorrow.

Join our Billionaire’s Portfolio today to get your portfolio in line with the most influential investors in the world, and hear more of my actionable political, economic and market analysis. Click here to learn more. 

 

September 6, 2016, 3:30pm EST

As we headed into the holiday weekend, stocks were sitting near record highs, yields were hanging around near record lows, and oil had been sinking back toward the danger zone (which is sub $40).

In examining the relationship of those three markets, each has a way of influencing the outcome and direction of the others.

First, the negative scenarios: A continued slide in oil would soon sink stocks again, and send yields (the interest rate outlook) falling farther. Cheap oil, in this environment, has dire implications for the energy business, which has a cascading effect, starting with banks, which effects credit and the dominos fall from there.

What about stocks?  When stocks are falling, in this environment, it’s self-reinforcing.  Lower stocks, equals souring sentiment, equals lower stocks.

What about yields?  As we’ve seen, lower yields are supposed to promote spending and borrowing.  But, in this environment, it comes with trepidation.  Lower yields, especially when much of the world’s government bond markets are in negative yield territory, is having a stifling effect on economic activity, as many see it as a signal of another recession coming, or worse.

Now, for the positive scenarios.  Most likely, they all come with intervention. That shouldn’t be surprising.

We’ve already seen the kitchen sink thrown at the stock market.  From a monetary policy standpoint, the persistent Fed jockeying through much of the past seven years has now been handed over to Japan and Europe.  QE in Europe and Japan continues to promote stability, which incentivizes the flow of capital into stocks (the only liquid alternative for return in a zero and negative interest rate world).

And we’ve seen them influence oil prices as well, through easing, currency market intervention, and likely the covert buying of oil back in February/March of this year (through China, ETFs via the BOJ or an intermediary Japanese bank).  Still, OPEC still swings the big ax in the oil market, and it’s been OPEC intervention that has rigged oil prices to cheap levels, and it looks increasingly likely that they will send oil prices higher through a policy move.  The news that Russian and Saudi Arabian might coordinate to promote higher oil prices, sent crude 5% higher on Monday.

As for yields, this is where the Fed is having a tough time.  They want yields to slowly climb, to slowly follow their policy guidance.  But the world hasn’t been buying it.  When they hiked for the first time in December, the U.S. 10 year yield went from 2.25%, to 2.30% (for a cup of coffee) and has since printed new record lows and continues to hang closer to those levels than not (at 1.53% today).  Lower yields makes it even harder for them to hike because it’s in the face of weaker sentiment.

Last week, we looked at the U.S. 10 year yield. It was trading in this ever narrowing wedge, looking like a big break was coming, one way or the other, following the jobs report on Friday.  It looks like we may have seen the break today (lower), following the week ISM data this morning.

What could swing it all in the positive direction?  Fiscal intervention.

As we discussed on Friday, the G20 met over the weekend.  With world government leaders all in the same room, we know the geopolitical tensions have been rising, relationships have been dividing, but first and foremost priority for everyone at the table, is the economy.

Even those opportunistically posturing for influence and power (i.e. Russia, China), without a stable and recovery global economy, the political and domestic economic outlook is bleak.  So we thought heading into the G20 that we could get some broader calls for government spending stimulus was in order.

The G20 statement did indeed focus heavily on the economy. They said, “Our growth must be shored up by well-designed and coordinated policies. We are determined to use all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates, but monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth. Underscoring the essential role of structural reforms, we emphasize that our fiscal strategies are equally important to supporting our common growth objectives.”

Keep an ear open for some foreshadowing out of Europe to promote fiscal stimulus – the spot it’s most needed. That would be a huge catalyst for “risk assets” (i.e. commodities, stocks, foreign currencies) and would probably finally signal the top in the bond market.

After a fairly quiet August, we have a full docket of central meetings in the weeks ahead, starting this week.  The European Central Bank meets on Thursday.

Join us here to get all of our in-depth analysis on the bigger picture, and our carefully curated stock portfolio of the best stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s best investors.

 

 

August 31, 2016, 4:00pm EST

We watched oil closely earlier this year.  The oil price bust ultimately pulled down stocks.  And when oil aggressively bounced off of the bottom, stocks recovered alongside, returning to new record highs.

Today it was oil again.

Stocks oscillated near record highs and following an anticipated Fed event last week had continued to tread water.  That gives the bears a low risk trade to sell the S&P 500 against the top (as a take profit, hedge or just a trade), holding out hope that gravity would take hold.

It hasn’t happened.  But we did get a catalyst to get it moving lower today, with a bigger than expected oil inventory build.  That sent oil down nearly 4% on the day.


Oil stocks took a hit.  But the broader stock market held up well, losing just 1/2 percent and recovering most of it by the day’s end.

The market still sits at critical levels going into the jobs number on Friday.  Yields continue to chop in this ever tightening wedge (below) — a break looks certain on the jobs number.  This is a very important chart.


And stocks are positioned close enough to the highs to encourage some profit taking (if the highs get taken out, you put the position back on … if the highs hold, you may have an opportunity to buy it back cheaper).


It remains a macro story – a central bank story.  And that’s the mindset of the market as we head into the end of what has been a rather sleepy August.

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.  

 

August 27, 2016, 12:00pm EST

The Fed’s Janet Yellen was the focal point for markets for the week. She had a scheduled speech at the annual Fed conference at Jackson Hole.

When her speech was finally made public Friday morning, the response in markets was uncertainty (the most used word for the past nine years).

Stocks went up, then down. Yields went down, then up.

So what do we make of it? Let’s start with the headlines that hit the wire Friday morning.

The world was wondering if Yellen would support the messaging from some of her fellow Fed members–that a September rate hike is on the table. Or would she continue the backstepping (dovish speak) the Fed has done for the past five months. The answer was ‘yes.’ She did both.

Yellen said the case for rate hikes has strengthened (yellow marker) because the data is nearing their goals (employment and inflation–the white marker). Ah, rate hike. But then she said the Fed expects inflation to hit the target 2% in the next few years (circled)! And then talked about the strategy for more QE. Huh? And then to top it off, she said they might move the goalposts. They might move the inflation target higher, and start targeting GDP. That means they would be happy to leave conditions ultra accommodative until those higher targets are met. Clearly dovish.

As I said Thursday, they want to raise rates to get the financial system closer to proper functioning, but they don’t want to cause a recession. The Fed wants to raise short-term rates, but promote a flatter yield curve (i.e. promote expectations that the economy will continue to be soft) to keep the market interest rates low, which keeps the housing market on the rails and the economic activity on the rails.

Remember, we talked about the piece Bernanke wrote a couple of weeks ago, where he suggested exactly this type of perception manipulation from the Fed, to balance the need to raise rates, without killing the economy.

That looks like the game plan.

Have a great weekend!

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.  

 

August 25, 2016, 4:00pm EST

Tomorrow is the big annual Fed conference in Wyoming.  It typically draws the world’s most powerful central bankers.  This is where, in 2012, Bernanke telegraphed a round three of its quantitative easing program.

The economy was still shaky following the escalating sovereign debt crisis in Europe, which had taken Spain and Italy to the brink of default.  Draghi and the ECB stepped in first, in late July and made the big “whatever it takes” promise.  This is where he threatened to crush the bond market speculators that had run yields up in the government bond markets of Spain and Italy to economic failure levels.  He threatened to take the other side of that trade, to whatever extent necessary, in effort to save the future of the euro.  It worked.  He didn’t have to buy a single bond.  The bond vigilantes fled. Yields ultimately fell sharply.

But just a month after Draghi’s threat, it was uncertain at best, that it would work.  With that, and given the economies globally were still flailing, Bernanke hinted that more QE was coming at the August Jackson Hole conference.

The combination of those to intervention events ignited global stocks, led by U.S. stocks.  The S&P 500 is up 55% from the date of Bernanke’s speech and the climb has been a 45 degree angle.

This time, this Jackson Hole, things are a bit more confusing, if that’s possible.  The BOJ, ECB and BOE are QE’ing.  The Fed has been going the other way.  But in the past six months, they’ve backstepped big time.

The hawk talk went quite for a while earlier this year.  Even Bernanke has written that the Fed has shot itself in the foot by publishing an optimistic trajectory and timeline for normalizing rate. It has resulted in an effect that has felt like a rate tightening, without them having to act.  That’s the exact opposite of they want.  They want to hike to restore some more traditional functioning of the financial system, but they don’t want to slow down economic activity.  It doesn’t normally work that way, and it hasn’t worked that way.

So now we have Yellen speaking tomorrow, and people are looking for answers.  We have some Fed members now wanting to dial back on public projections, as to not continue to negatively influence economic activity (Bernanke’s advice) and others getting in front of camera’s and telling us that a September hike might be in the cards.

But while everyone is looking to Yellen for clarity (don’t expect it), the show might be stolen by another central banker.  Haruhiko Kuroda, head of the Bank of Japan, will be in Jackson Hole too.  The agenda is not yet out so we don’t know if he’s speaking.  But he could conjure up some Bernanke style QE3.  Not a bad bet to be long USD/JPY and dollar-denominated Nikkei through the weekend (ETFs, DBJP or DXJ).  Full disclosure: We’re long DBJP in our Billionaire’s Portfolio.

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.  

 

August 16, 2016, 3:45pm EST

Yesterday was the deadline for all big investors to submit, to the SEC, a public snapshot of their portfolios for the quarter ended June 30th.

On that note, as we’ve discussed, this information is covered hot and heavy by the media.  You often see headlines like these (these are actual headlines from yesterday): “Activist hedge fund ValueAct takes about 2 percent stake in Morgan Stanley” or “George Soros sells off Apple stake during the second quarter.”

On the above stories, if you own Morgan Stanley should you feel good about it?  Conversely, if you own Apple, should you be worried?  The heavy coverage of the topic both online and on television implies “yes” to both, which likely gets the average investor stirring.  But there’s never context given as to whether or not the information is meaningful, and there’s never evidence given as to what the results tend to be for those that follow.  The reason is, it requires a lot of hard work, experience, ingenuity and proprietary research to draw any conclusions from the information.

For perspective, these Q2 filings show positioning just five days after the UK voted to leave the European Union.  And this event was broadly speculated to be a crushing blow the global markets and the global economy.  As you recall, we made the case that it was over-exaggerated and could actually be good for markets and the economy by invoking some much needed fiscal stimulus.

Still, it’s safe to assume the UK event had considerable influence on the holdings of the world’s biggest investors. Global markets swung violently on the news back in June.  Remember, between June 23rd and June 27th, the S&P 500 fell as much as 5.7%.  It made it all back the subsequent four days.
So given the timing of the portfolio snapshot with the Brexit fears, let’s talk about Apple, the most widely held stock in the world and the largest constituent in the market cap weighted S&P 500.  The headlines were scrolling fast and furious on Apple yesterday, following the filings from billionaire investors David Einhorn, George Soros and Chase Coleman – all of which sold Apple shares in the quarter.  Now, it’s important to understand that these funds can trade Apple with virtual anonymity between quarters.  The stock is too large for anyone one investor to take a 5% “activist” stake, which would trigger the requirement of a 13D filing with the SEC, which would require updated filings (or amendments) within 10 days of any change in the position size (sell one share, you have to report it).

On that note, let’s start some perspective on Einhorn’s Apple stake:  Going into the second quarter Einhorn’s biggest position, by far, was Apple.  He had 15% of his fund in the stock (a huge position).  It would only make since that he would trim the position and neutralize some risk into an uncertain macro event.  In fact, in his second quarter letter, Einhorn brags that they have done a good job of “trading” Apple (i.e. managing the downside). Still, as of the end of Q2, Apple was a very large position, at 12% of his fund.
What about the tech investing genius billionaire Chase Coleman?  Coleman had 9% of his $7 billion fund (long public equities) in Apple going into the second quarter.  By the end, he had cut it by 75%.  Again, playing defense into Brexit. Apple stock is 16% higher than it traded on June 30.  Coleman may very well have put the full position back on since the June 30 snapshot (likely).

George Soros?  First, we should note that Soros is the world’s best global macro investor. He’s an agile investor that will load up on a theme and just as quickly reverse course and position for another probable outcome.  For a career, Soros’ bread has been buttered betting on the unexpected outcome.  That’s where the big wins come.  Brexit was unexpected, thus his trimming of Apple, the stock with the biggest contribution to his view on a slide in the S&P 500.

And then we have arguably the greatest investor of all-time, Warren Buffett.  While others ran from Apple, Buffett increased his stake by more than 55%.  Why?  Buffett has made his living for more than 50 years buying good companies when everyone else is selling.  As he says, “be greedy when others are fearful.”

That’s a sliver of perspective on the popular 13F filings of the past few days.  As I said yesterday, the presence of a big investor in a stock is rarely valuable information.  Only a small percentage of those reporting investors have the powerful combination of size, influence and portfolio concentration to make their presence alone a potential catalyst for change in a company/and a repricing of the stock.

Follow The Lead Of Great Investors Like Warren Buffett In Our Billionaire’s Portfolio

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.  

August 15, 2016, 4:00pm EST

Following a quiet week on the news and economic data front, this week will have plenty of events and catalysts for markets, as we sit at record highs in U.S. stocks.

We talked last week about the sharp bounce back in oil. That bounce continues today (+2.5%), and is being driven by comments from Saudi Arabia that an oil production freeze may finally come to put a floor under oil.
Why does it matter? OPEC, led by its biggest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, has rigged oil prices for the better part of two years in an attempt to ward off new shale industry competition. That brought the U.S. energy industry to its knees earlier this year, before central banks stepped in with “stimulus” measures that happened to bottom out oil and double the price in just weeks. Still, low prices are finally reaching the breaking point for all oil producers (including the Saudis and fellow OPEC countries).

So higher oil (above $40) takes shock risk off of the table for global markets. As such, global stocks continue to climb. It started in China this morning, with a 3% plus rise (as we said in early July, It May Be Time To Buy Chinese Stocks).

Among the events this week, the biggest investors in the world are filing required quarterly public portfolio disclosures with the SEC (13F filings). This is where we get a glimpse into their portfolios.

Of course, it’s a widely covered event these days by the media. And there’s interesting information to be gleaned. But of 400 or so top funds/investors, only 20-30 have the combination of size/influence and hold a concentrated portfolio of high conviction investments to make the prospect of following their lead, productive. Most of the lot allocate across so many stocks their portfolio performance mirrors the broader indices.

Of this small group of investors, what’s most valuable are the timely public disclosures (13D filings) they make when they’ve taken a controlling interest in a company with the intent to create change — their conviction level, and their clear and articulated game plan for unlocking value.

With filings continuing throughout the day today, we’ll talk more this week about the value of following the lead of some of the best investors in the world.

Follow The Lead Of Great Investors Like Warren Buffett In Our Billionaire’s Portfolio

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.  

 

May 27, 2016, 11:40am EST

As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, we want to talk today about the G7 meeting that took place this week Japan, and how these meetings tend to effect financial markets (namely the key barometer for global markets in this environment, U.S. stocks).  It’s a big effect.

If we look back at the past seven annual meetings of world leaders, there is clearly a direct correlation between their messaging and the resulting performance of stocks.

For context, we’re talking about a period, from 2009-present, that has been driven by intervention and careful confidence massaging by global policymakers.  So it shouldn’t be surprising that coming out of these meetings, post-Lehman, things happen.

Let’s take a look at the chart of the S&P 500 and highlight the spots where a G7 meeting wrapped up (note:  this was actually the G8 prior to 2014, when Russia was ousted from the group).

Source: Reuters, Billionaire’s Portfolio

If you bought stocks following the meeting in Italy, in 2009, you’ve made a lot of money.  The next year, in Canada, same result.  Of course, the world was in very bad shape at the time, and the messaging from both meetings was unambiguously focused on the economy, restoring stability and growth.

By May of 2011, the message was that the recovery was becoming “self sustaining” (a positive tone).  Stocks didn’t push higher, and then fell back later in the year when the European debt crisis spread to Italy, Spain and France.

In 2012, the meeting was hosted in the Washington D.C.  The European debt crisis was at peak crisis.  Greece exiting the euro was on the table and it was stoking fear that Italy and Spain were next to crumble and destroy the European Monetary Union.  The first line of the communiqué was about Europe and the need for economic stimulus.  Stocks went higher and two months later, ECB head Mario Draghi further fueled stocks by stepping in and averting disaster in Europe by saying they would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.

In 2013, G7 leaders, plus Russia met in the UK.  The second statement in the 33 page communiqué focused on economic uncertainty and promoting growth and jobs. Stocks went higher.

In 2014, the meeting was hosted by the European Union.  Russia had been ousted earlier in the year from the G8 for break of international law for its actions in Ukraine. The primary focus was on Russia and promoting freedom and democracy.  The tone on the economy was somewhat upbeat. Stocks went up for a few weeks and then ultimately fell back later in the year in a sharp correction/then sharp recovery.

In 2015, Germany hosted.  The communiqué led with a focus on the refugee crisis.  Stocks followed a similar path to 2014.

Finally, today the 2016 meetings concluded in Japan.  The focus was on the economy.  “Global growth remains moderate and below potential, while risks of weak growth persist.”  And they discuss rising geo-political conflicts as a further burden on the global economy.

So if we look back at these meetings, clearly there is a G7 (G8) effect. If the headline focus is the economy, it tends to be very good for stocks.

Don’t Miss Out On This Stock

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio we followed the number one performing hedge fund on the planet into a stock that has the potential to triple by the end of next month.

This fund returned an incredible 52% last year, while the S&P 500 was flat.  And since 1999, they’ve done 40% a year.  And they’ve done it without one losing year.  For perspective, that takes every $100,000 to $30 million.

We want you on board.  To find out the name of this hedge fund, the stock we followed them into, and the catalyst that could cause the stock to triple by the end of the month, click here and join us in our Billionaire’s Portfolio.

We make investing easy. We follow the guys with the power and the influence to control their own destiny – and a record of unmatchable success.  And you come along for the ride.

We look forward to welcoming you aboard!

Regards,
Bryan

As we head into Memorial Day weekend and stocks (S&P 500) have crossed back over into positive territory again for the year, we want to step back and acknowledge the relative calm in global markets and economies, compared to where we stood just three months ago, and talk about how different the second half is setting up to be.

Remember, just three months ago the S&P 500 was down 11.4%. Small cap stocks were down 17%. When stocks go lower, people predict crashes.  They did.  Oil was trading $26 and some bold people were predicting much lower – and lower for a very long time.

Sure, the world was a scary place when oil was $26.  But we had a binary outcome on our hands.  If oil continued to go lower, and for much longer, the energy industry was done, and the dominoes were lining up. We faced another wave of global economic and financial crisis that would have made the “great recession” look modest.

But if you stepped back and weighed the probability of the outcomes, the evidence was clearly supporting a recovery, not another date with global disaster.

Just days prior to February 11, when oil and global stocks bottomed, we said “a rigged oil market has the ingredients to undo all that the central banks have done for the past nine years to get us to this point. With that, we expect that, as intervention has stemmed the threat of everything that could have derailed recovery up to this point, intervention will be what stems the threat of the falling oil and commodity prices threat.

The central banks manufactured a recovery from the edge of disaster in 2009.  They went “all-in.”  It would be illogical to think they would sit back and watch it all undone by an oil price bust, one that was orchestrated by OPEC in an effort to crush the competitive shale industry.

We already knew how far the world’s biggest central banks would go to preserve stability (perhaps civilization).  They would do pretty much anything — “whatever it takes” in their own words.

So what marked the bottom for oil?  Not surprisingly, it was intervention.
If we fast forward to today, with the trend of positive surprises in European data leading the way, it’s fair to say the state of global markets is getting closer to good.

What does that mean for stocks?

If we look back at 2010 we can see a lot of similarities.  Stocks were hammered in the first half of 2010 by the potential default of Greece – and for energy stocks, the oil spill in the Gulf.  The macro clouds were removed, and in the second half of 2010, the S&P 500 rallied from down 7% to up 15% by year end.

The Russell 2000 was down 6% for the year through July of 2010.  Over the next five months it rallied 34 percentage points to finish UP 27% on the year.

What about energy?  After being down 12% in the first half of 2010, the XLE (the energy ETF tied to a basket of energy stocks) returned 34% off the bottom and 22% for the year.

Also remember, in Fed tightening cycles, stocks tend to go UP not down. We’re officially five months into a Fed tightening cycle stocks are basically flat.

Don’t Miss Out On This Stock

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio we followed the number one performing hedge fund on the planet into a stock that has the potential to triple by the end of the month.

This fund returned an incredible 52% last year, while the S&P 500 was flat.  And since 1999, they’ve done 40% a year.  And they’ve done it without one losing year.  For perspective, that takes every $100,000 to $30 million.

We want you on board.  To find out the name of this hedge fund, the stock we followed them into, and the catalyst that could cause the stock to triple by the end of the month, click here and join us in our Billionaire’s Portfolio.

We make investing easy. We follow the guys with the power and the influence to control their own destiny – and a record of unmatchable success.  And you come along for the ride.

We look forward to welcoming you aboard!

 

May 23, 2016, 5:00pm EST

Last week we talked about Warren Buffett’s new stake in Apple.  Today we want to talk about the investor that recently sold Apple: Carl Icahn.

In a world where information is abundant, markets are priced quite efficiently.  The way a stock re-prices is through CHANGE.

And that’s precisely what the influential investors that we follow in our Billionaire’s Portfolio specialize in.  And that’s why they have such a tremendous record in posting consistent superior returns – and, in turn, building tremendous wealth for themselves and their investors.

No one has done a better job at creating change for shareholders than Carl Icahn – certainly not over the span of the past three decades. That’s why we have 20% of our Billionaires Portfolio in stocks owned and controlled by Icahn.

We consider Icahn the god-father of activism.  Very early on, Icahn found that, among all of the complications people like to add to investing, there is a very simple opportunity to take advantage and capitalize on the simplicities that we all know about human nature.

In his words, “some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.”

I’ll interpret that remark with these three simple points:  1) People will take advantage of opportunities to satisfy their own self-interests. 2) People will find ways to justify their self-serving actions.  3) People will be greedy.

Add this human nature to a concoction called the public equity markets, and you find, among many things, a witch’s brew of bad management teams at publicly traded companies.

To most investors, identifying a company that’s run poorly is a red flag – something to stay away from.

For Icahn, it’s opportunity. It’s blood in the water.  Why?  Because it presents the opportunity for CHANGE. And when you get change, you have a chance to make a lot of money as the stock re-prices to reflect that change.

Icahn has done this over and over throughout his long career. That’s why he has been able to compound money at nearly 30% a year for almost 50-years.  That’s the greatest long-term investment track record in history (as far as we know).  One thousand dollars with Icahn when he started has gone to $275 million.

Even at the age of 80, Icahn has been as vocal and as influential as ever. He influenced Apple to a near double by encouraging Apple to use their treasure chest of cash to buy back stock.  Cash sitting on a balance sheet idle does nothing for shareholders. Share buybacks create shareholder value.
That’s the name of the game. Despite what some CEOs may think, that is precisely why they have been employed, to create shareholder value.  And that is often the change that has to take place (the CEO or the mindset of leadership).

Icahn’s continued investing success can be attributed to one important talent:  He’s a change-maker.  When we follow him, we can be assured that he has a plan for change and that he will fight to make it happen. Plus, when we follow Icahn, we get an added bonus that few, if any, other big time investors summon: Because of his great success, his campaigns tend to attract other influential investors to join in – stacking the odds even more favorably for shareholders.

We’ll talk more about the “Icahn effect” tomorrow.

Don’t Miss Out On This Stock

In our Billionaire’s Portfolio we followed the number one performing hedge fund on the planet into a stock that has the potential to triple by the end of the month.

This fund returned an incredible 52% last year, while the S&P 500 was flat.  And since 1999, they’ve done 40% a year.  And they’ve done it without one losing year.  For perspective, that takes every $100,000 to $30 million.

We want you on board.  To find out the name of this hedge fund, the stock we followed them into, and the catalyst that could cause the stock to triple by the end of the month, click here and join us in our Billionaire’s Portfolio.

We make investing easy. We follow the guys with the power and the influence to control their own destiny – and a record of unmatchable success.  And you come along for the ride.

We look forward to welcoming you aboard!