Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that the world was sitting on every word uttered by a central banker. Those days are likely over — at least to the extreme extent of the past decade. For now, Trump has supplanted central bankers as the most powerful policy maker in the world.
Still, the Fed will meet following their rate hike last month, the second in their very slow hiking cycle – 1/4 point hike twelve months apart. They’ll do nothing this week, but the data tends to be going as desired by the Fed, and other major central banks for that matter (aside from Japan) — meaning, inflation has recovered and is nearing the target zone.
Remember, this time last year, the world was staring down the barrel of DE-flation again. Inflation, central bankers have tools to combat. Deflation is far more difficult, and far less predictable. It can spiral and grind economies to a halt. When consumers are convinced prices will be cheaper in the future, they wait. When they wait, economic activity stalls. With that, deflation tends to create more deflation. The fear of that scenario, and the potential of an irreversible spiral, is why central bankers were cutting rates to negative territory last year.
Where was the imminent deflationary threat coming from? Slow economic activity, but mostly a crash in oil prices.
Central bankers have the tendency to change the rules of the game when it suits them. When inflation is running hot, they may hold off on tightening money by pointing to hot “food and energy” prices. These are temporary influences, as they say. Interestingly, they are much more aggressive, though, when oil prices are creating a deflationary threat – as they did last year.
With that, oil prices have doubled from the lows of last February. So it shouldn’t be too surprising that inflation numbers are rising, and getting close to the desired targets (around 2%) of the central bankers of the U.S., Europe and England.
So will we see a turning point for global central banks (not just the Fed) in the months ahead? The world has already been pricing in the likelihood that the pro-growth policies coming from the Trump administration will take the burden of manufacturing economic recovery off of the central banks.
But we may find that “transitory oil prices” will be the excuse for more inaction by the Fed, and continued QE from the ECB and BOE in the months ahead, which may result in a slower pace of rate hikes than both the Fed projected in December and the market has been anticipating.
Higher rates at this stage: 1) creates problems for the housing recovery, 2) promotes more capital flight from emerging markets like China (which means more dollar strength),and 3) threatens to neutralize the fiscal stimulus and reform coming down the pike for the U.S.
In December, the Fed dialed back their talk about letting the economy run hot (i.e. staying well behind the curve on inflation to make sure recovery is robust). We’ll see if they switch gears again and start explaining away the inflation numbers to oil prices.
For help building a high potential portfolio for 2017, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2016. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Remember, this (animal spirits) is the element that economists and analysts can’t predict, and can’t quantify. It’s not in the forecasts. This is what has been destroyed over the past decade, driven primarily by the fear of indebtedness (which is typical of a debt crisis) and mistrust of the system. All along the way, throughout the recovery period, and throughout a tripling of the stock market off of the bottom, people have continually been waiting for another shoe to drop. The breaking of this emotional mindsethas been underway since the night of the election. And that gives way to a return of animal spirits.
Higher stock prices tend to beget higher stock prices. Trust me, individual investors that haven’t been believers will be calling their financial advisors and logging in to their online brokerage accounts over the coming days. Institutional investors that haven’t been believers, that have been underweight stocks, will be beefing up exposure if they want to compete with their peers (and keep their jobs).
And not only do higher stock prices lead to higher stock prices, but higher stock prices tend to make people feel more confident about the economy, which begets a better economy.
Add to this, the psychological value of Dow 20,000 could finally be a turning point in the divergence of sentiment toward the Trump Presidency. It may serve as a validation marker for those that have been on the fence. And for those in opposition, as I’ve said before, growth solves a lot of problems! When the college grad that’s been relegated to a 10-year career as a barista begins to see signs of opportunity for a better career and a better future, in a stronger economy, the sands of Trump sentiment can shift quickly.
Cleary, Trump entered with a game plan that can pop economic growth. And he’s going 100 miles an hour at executing on that plan. For markets, what he’s doing is creating a sense of certainty for investors. They know what he’s promised, and now they know that he appears to intend on delivering on those promises. And the coordination of growth policies, along with ultra-easy monetary policy (even with tightening in view) serves as risk mitigators for markets. It should limit downside risk, which is what investors care most about. How?
Remember, even at Dow 20,000, stocks are still extremely cheap.
Here’s a review on why …
Reason #1: To return to the long-term trajectory of 8% annualized returns for the S&P 500, the broad stock market would still need to recovery another 48% by the middle of this year. We’re still making up for the lost growth of the past decade. And there’s a lot of ground to make up.
Reason #2: In low-rate environments, the valuation on the broad market tends to run north of 20 times earnings. Adjusting for that multiple, we can see a reasonable path to a 16% return for the year. That’s an S&P 500 earnings estimate of $133.64 times a P/E of 20 equals 2,672 on the S&P 500.
Reason #3: The proposed corporate tax rate cut from 35% to 15% is estimated to drive S&P 500 earnings UP from an estimated $132 per share for next year, to as high as $157. Apply $157 to a 20x P/E and you get 3,140 in the S&P 500. That’s 37% higher.
With this in mind, we are likely entering an incredible era for investing, which will be an opportunity for average investors to make up ground on the meager wealth creation and retirement savings opportunities of the past decade. For help building a high potential portfolio for 2017, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2016. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
For two full months the Trump rally has consisted of higher stocks, higher yields, a higher dollar and higher commodity prices — all on the prospects of hotter growth and a sustainable period of prosperity ahead.
Since the night of November 8th, it’s been “buy it now, prove it to me later” market. But people are expecting there will be a period of time where the markets begin trading in “prove it to me” mode.
Often we see a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” phenomenon in markets — it’s a reflection of investors pricing new information in anticipation of an event, and then selling into the event on the notion that the market has already valued the new information. With that, the period surrounding the January 20th inauguration could be the “sell the rumor” moment (in fact, we may be working on it now).
Many are hoping it could be the second chance given to those that have been left behind in the great Trump reflation rally. The question is, how deep or shallow that correction might be, and how long or short-lived it might me.
I would argue, it’s going to short-lived and shallow (maybe very shallow), for all of the reasons I’ve discussed in this daily note, not the least of which, is a world starving for a return to meaningful and sustainable growth, and the perception that this is the best chance we’ve had and might have, to get the global economy back on track. Trump’s tone today, in his press conference, indeed, indicated that he would waste no time executing on his plan. That favors a short-and-shallow correction scenario for the Trump rally. And shallow corrections are typical of strong trending markets.
With that said, since the election, here’s a view of key markets (taking the last price before the election night whipsaw):
The yield on the 10-year has gone from 1.85% to over 2.64% on the Trump effect. But despite a surprisingly hawkish Fed on December 14th, and even more hawkish fundamental data since, the high in yields, thus far, was marked the day after the Fed meeting last month. And today yields traded just below 2.33%, the lowest since November 30th! For technicians, the 38.2% (Fibonacci) retracement of the entire move is 2.34%. That would be considered a shallow retracement.
The dollar (index) has gone from 97.68 to 103.82, and today trades at 101.28 which is the lowest level since December 14. Commodities (the broad commodity index) have gone from 183 to 193, and today trades at 191. Both have room for another 1% or so lower. The dollar looks very strong.
What about stocks? The S&P 500 has gone from 2,138 to 2,278, and now trades at 2,262. A shallow retracement for stocks of the Trump rally would be about 2,225 (which is about 2% lower from here). Given the policy outlook, those wishing for something deeper may not get the chance – a couple of percentage points from here may be the gift.
For help building a high potential portfolio, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2017. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Over the past year we’ve had a wild ride in global yields. Today I want to take a look at the dramatic swing in yields and talk about what it means for the inflation picture, and the Fed’s stance on rates.
When oil prices made the final leg lower early last year, the Japanese central bank responded to the growing deflationary forces with a surprise cut of their benchmark interest rate into negative territory.
That began the global yield slide. By mid-year, more than $12 trillion dollars with of government bond yields across the world had a negative interest rate. Even Janet Yellen didn’t close the door to the possibility of adopting NIRP (negative interest rate policies).
So investors were paying the government for the privilege of loaning it their money. You only do that when 1) you think interest rates will go even further negative, and/or 2) you think paying to park your money is the safest option available.
And when you’re a central banker, you go negative to force people out of savings. But when people think the world is dangerous and prices will keep falling, they tend to hold tight to their money, from the fear a destabilized world.
But this whole dynamic was very quickly flipped on its head with the election of a new U.S. President, entering with what many deem to be inflationary policies. But as you can see in the chart below, the U.S. inflation rate had already been recovering, and since November is now nudging closer to the Fed’s target of 2%.
Still, the expectations of much hotter U.S. inflation are probably over done. Why? Given the divergent monetary policies between the U.S. and the rest of the world, capital has continued to flow into the dollar (if not accelerated). That suppresses inflation. And that should keep the Fed in the sweet spot, with slow rate hikes.
Meanwhile, there’s more than enough room for inflation to run in other developed economies. You can see in Europe, inflation is now back above 1% for the first time in three years. That, too, is in large part because of its currency. In this case, a stronger dollar has meant a weaker euro. This (along with the UK and Japan) is where the real REflation trade is taking place. And it’s where it’s needed most, because it also means growth is coming with it, finally.
You can see, following Brexit, the chart looks similar in the UK – prices are coming back, again fueled by a sharp decline in the pound, which pumps up exports for the economy.
And, here’s Japan.
Japan’s deflation fight is the most noteworthy, following the administrations 2013 all-out assault to beat 2 decades of deflation. It hasn’t worked, but now, post-Trump, the stars may be aligning for a sharp recovery.
For help building a high potential portfolio, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2017. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
With the Dow within a fraction of 20,000 today, and with the first week of 2017 in the books, I want to revisit my analysis from last month on why stocks are still cheap.
Despite what the media may tell you, the number 20,000 means very little. In fact, it’s amusing to watch interviewers constantly probe the experts on TV to get an anwer on why 20,000 for the Dow is meaningful. They demand an answer and they tend to get them when the lights and a camera are locked in on the interviewee.
Remember, if we step back and detach from the emotions of market chatter, speculation and perception, there are simple and objective reasons to believe the broader stock market can go much higher from current levels.
I want to walk through these reasons again for the new year.
Reason #1: To return to the long-term trajectory of 8% annualized returns for the S&P 500, the broad stock market would still need to recovery another 49% by the middle of next year. We’re still making up for the lost growth of the past decade.
Reason #2: In low-rate environments, the valuation on the broad market tends to run north of 20 times earnings. Adjusting for that multiple, we can see a reasonable path to a 16% return for the year.
Reason #3: We now have a clear, indisputable earnings catalyst to add to that story. The proposed corporate tax rate cut from 35% to 15% is estimated to drive S&P 500 earnings UP from an estimated $132 per share for next year, to as high as $157. Apply $157 to a 20x P/E and you get 3,140 in the S&P 500. That’s 38% higher.
Reason #4: What else is not factored into all of this simple analysis, nor the models of economists and Wall Street strategists? The prospects of a return of ‘animal spirits.’ This economic turbocharger has been dead for the past decade. The world has been deleveraging.
Reason #5: As billionaire Ray Dalio suggested, there is a clear shift in the environment, post President-elect Trump. The billionaire investor has determined the election to be a seminal moment. With that in mind, the most thorough study on historical debt crises (by Reinhardt and Rogoff) shows that the deleveraging of a credit bubble takes about as long as it took to build. They reckon the global credit bubble took about ten years to build. The top in housing was 2006. That means we’ve cleared ten years of deleveraging. That would argue that Trumponomics could be coming at the perfect time to amplify growth in a world that was already structurally turning. A pop in growth, means a pop in corporate earnings–and positive earnings surprises is a recipe for higher stock prices.
For these five simple reasons, even at Dow 20,000, stocks look extraordinarily cheap.
For help building a high potential portfolio, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2017. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
We talked yesterday about the bad start for global markets in 2016. It was led by China. Today, it was a move in the Chinese currency that slowed the momentum in markets. Yields have fallen back. The dollar slid. And stocks took a breather.
China’s currency is a big deal to everyone. It’s the centerpiece of the tariff threats that have been levied from the U.S. President-elect. I’ve talked quite a bit about that posturing (you can see it again here: Why Trump’s Tough Talk On China May Work).
As we know, China, itself, sets the value of its currency every day. It’s called a managed float. They determine the value. And for the past two years, they’ve been walking it lower — weakening the yuan against the dollar. That’s an about face to the trend of the prior nine years. In 2005, in agreement with their major trading partners (primarily the U.S.), they began slowly appreciating their currency, in an effort to allay trade tensions, and threats of trade sanctions (tariffs).
So what happened today? The Chinese revalued its currency — pegged ithigher by a little more than a percent against the dollar. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but as you can see in the chart, it’s a big move, relative to the average daily volatility. That became big news and stoked a little bit of concern in markets, mostly because China was the sore spot at the open of last year, and the PBOC made a similar move around this time, when global marketswere spiraling.
Why did they do it? This time around, the Chinese have complained about the threat of capital flowing out of the country – it’s a huge threat to their economy in its current form. That’s where they’ve laid the blame, on the two year slide in the value of the yuan. With that, they’ve allegedly been fighting to keep the yuan stable and have been stepping up restrictions on money leaving the country. Today’s move, which included a spike in the overnight yuan borrowing rate, was a way to crush speculators that have been betting against the currency, putting further downward pressure on the currency. But it also likely Trump related – the beginning of a crawl higher in the currency as we head toward the inauguration of the new President Trump. It’s very typical for those under the gun for currency manipulation to make concessions before they meet with trade partners.
So, should we be concerned about the move today in China? No. It’s not another January 2016 moment. But the move did drive profit taking in twobig trends of the past two months: the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. With that, the first jobs report of the year comes tomorrow. It should provide more evidence that the Fed will hike a few times this year. And that should restore the climb in the dollar and in rates.
For help building a high potential portfolio, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2017. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Remember this time last year? The markets opened with a nosedive in Chinese stocks. By the time New York came in for trading, China was already down 7% and trading had been halted. That started, what turned out to be, the worst opening stretch of a New Year in the history of the U.S. stock market.
The sirens were sounding and people were gripping for what they thought was going to be a disastrous year. And then, later that month, oil slid from the mid $30s to the mid $20s and finally people began to realize it wasn’t China they should be worried about, it was oil. The oil price crash was a ticking time bomb, about to unleash mass bankruptcies on the energy industry and threaten a “round two” of global financial crisis.
What happened? Central banks stepped in. On February 11th, the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency markets, buying dollars/selling yen. What did they do with those dollars? They must have bought oil, in one form or another. Oil bottomed that day. China soon followed with a move to boost bank lending, relieving some fears of a global liquidity crunch. The ECB upped its QE program and cut rates. And then the Fed followed up by taking two of their projected four rate hikes off of the table (of which they ended up moving just once on the year).
What a difference a year makes.
There’s a clear shift in the environment, away from a world on liquidity-driven life support/ and toward structural, growth-oriented change.
With that, there’s a growing sense of optimism in the air that we haven’t seenin ten years. Even many of the pros that have constantly been waiting for the next “shoe to drop” (for years) have gone quiet.
Global markets have started the year behaving very well. And despite the near tripling from the 2009 bottom in the stock market, money is just in the early stages of moving out of bonds and cash, and back into stocks. Following the election in November, we are coming into the year with TWO consecutive record monthly inflows into the U.S. stock market based on ETF flows from November and December.
The tone has been set by U.S. markets, and we should see the rest of the world start to play catch up (including emerging markets). But this development was already underway before the election.
Remember, I talked about European stocks quite a bit back in October. While U.S. stocks have soared to new record highs, German stocks have lagged dramatically and have offered one of the more compelling opportunities.
Here’s the chart we looked at back in October, where I said “after being down more than 20% earlier this year, German stocks are within 1.5% of turning green on the year, and technically breaking to the upside“…
And here’s the latest chart…
You can see, as you look to the far right of the chart, it’s been on a tear. Adding fuel to that fire, the eurozone economic data is beginning to show signs that a big bounce may be coming. A pop in U.S. growth would only bolster that.
And a big bounce back in euro zone growth this year would be a very valuabledefense against another populist backlash against the establishment (first Grexit, then Brexit, then Trump). Nationalist movements in Germany and France are huge threats to the EU and euro (the common currency). Another round of potential break-up of the euro would be destabilizing for the global economy.
With that, as we enter the year with the ammunition to end the decade long economy rut, there are still hurdles to overcome. Along with Trump/China frictions, the French and German elections are the other clear and present dangers ahead that could dull the efficacy of Trumponomics.
For help building a high potential portfolio, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2017. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Last week we talked about how a visit to Trump Tower was becoming a good predictor of a success for your stock.
Goldman continues to build representation in the Trump administration with the latest addition, Gary Cohn (current COO and President of Goldman Sachs) as the National Economic Council Director. And hedge funder Anthony Scaramucci, a Goldman Sachs alum and current member of the Trump transition team, is rumored to be in the running for a role in the administration. Goldman’s stock continues to rise, as the best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial average since Election Day (up 31%).
And remember, we talked about the visit last week of Masayoshi Son, the Japanese billionaire and majority stake holder in Sprint. Sprint is up 32% since election day.
So now we have the latest, and one of the most important cabinet appointments, Rex Tillerson, who will be Secretary of State. He’s the Chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobil, the biggest energy company in the country and one of the largest publicly traded companies. Exxon was up 2% today, and is up 9% since the election — better than the broader market, but not quite as good as the stocks of some other Trump Tower visitors.
This is a very interesting pick. Given that the President-elect has openly talked about using oil as an economic weapon (on Iraq… “we should have taken the oil”). We now have one of the world’s most respected experts in oil, and in negotiating around oil, charged with stabilizing the middle east and relations with Russia (to name a few). And given that the hot spot of global instability surrounds countries (or regimes) that are highly dependendent on oil revenue (funded by oil revenue), we have a guy that could credibly utilize leverage emerging U.S. supply, and global demand of the developed world, as a bargaining chip. His appointment/presence may also end up yielding a stable oil price environment going forward (tempering the manipulation of price extremes by OPEC).
Follow me and look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up more than 27% this year. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
The last big market event of the year will be Wednesday, when the Fed decides on rates.
As we’ve discussed, from the bottom in rates earlier this year, the interest rate market has had an enormous move. That has a lot of people worried about 1) a tightening that has already taken place in the credit markets, and 2) the potential drag it may have on what has been an improving recovery. But remember, we headed into the Fed’s first post-crisis rate hike, last December, with the 10 year yield trading at 2.25%.
And while rates have since done a nearly 100 basis point round trip, we’ll head into this week’s meeting with the 10 year trading around 2.50%. With that, the market has simply priced-in the rate hike this week, and importantly, is sending the message that the economy can handle it.
However, what has been the risk, going into this meeting, is the potential for the Fed to overreact on the interest rate outlook in response to the pro-growth inititiaves coming from the Trump administration. As we found last year, overly optimistic guidance from the Fed has a tightening effect in this environment. People began bracing ealier this year for a slower economy, if not a Fed induced recession, after the Fed projected four rate hikes this year.
The good news is, as we discussed last week, the two voting Fed members that were marched out in front of cameras last week, both toed the line of Yellen’s communications strategy, expressing caution and a slow and reactive path of rate hikes (no hint of a bubbling up of optimism). Again, that should keep the equities train moving in the positive direction through the year end.
In fact, both equities and oil look poised to take advantage of thin holiday markets. We may see a few more percentage points added to stocks before New Years, especially given the catalyst of the Trump tweet. And we may very well see a drift up to $60 in oil in a thin market.
We’ve had the first production cut from OPEC in eight years. And as of this weekend, we have an agreement by non-OPEC producers to cut oil production too. That gapped oil prices higher to open the week, and has confirmed a clean long term technical reversal pattern in oil.
This is a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern in oil. The break of the neckline today projects a move to $77. Some of the best and most informed oil traders in the world have been predicting that area for oil prices since this past summer.
Follow me and look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up more than 27% this year. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Stocks continue to print new highs. And many continue to doubt the rally (as they have for much of the post-crisis recovery).
They continue to say stocks are priced for perfection, implying that stocks are expensive, and/or that investors are assuming a perfect Presidency from Trump. But remember, we’ve talked about the massive fundamental and technical performance gap that has still yet to be closed, dating back to the 2007 pre-crisis peak. I did this analysis again just a few days after the election. You can see it here: “The Trump Effect Will Make Stocks Extraordinarily Cheap.”
Now, a few days ago, we talked about buying the stocks of the guests of Trump Tower. Goldman comes to mind, as the Wall Street powerhouse has been well represented in the Trump plan, including the new Treasury Secretary appointment. Goldman is the best performing Dow stock over the past month. And we talked about the meeting with Japanese investor, Masayoshi Son, at Trump Tower this week. Son’s gigantic (80%+) stake in Sprint is up 11% sinceTuesday.
With that said, the billionaire activist investor, Carl Icahn, has been out doing interviews the past two days. Let’s talk about Icahn, because there is perhaps no one investor that should benefit more from the Trump administration. Remember, Icahn was an early supporter for Trump. He’s been an advisor throughout and has helped shape policy plans for the President-elect.
What has been the sore spot for Icahn’s underperforming portfolio the past two years? Energy. It has been heavily weighted in his portfolio the past two years. And no surprise, he’s had steep declines in the value of his portfolio the past two years.
But Icahn doesn’t see his energy stakes as bad investments. Rather, he thinks his stocks have been unfairly harmed by reckless regulation. For that, he’s fought. He’s penned a letter to the EPA a few months ago saying its policies on renewable energy credits are bankrupting the oil refinery business and destroying small and midsized oil refiners. And now his activism looks like it will pay off. Yesterday we got an appointee to run the EPA that has been vetted by Icahn (as he said in an interview today) — it’s an incoming EPA chief that was suing the EPA in his role as Oklahoma attorney general. Safe to assume he’ll be friendly to energy, which will be friendly to Icahn’s portfolio.
Icahn’s publicly traded holdings company is already up 28% from election day (just one month ago). But it remains 56% off of the 2013 highs. This is the portfolio of an investor (Icahn) with the best track record in history (30% annualized for almost 50 years). IEP might be one of the best buys in the market.
We have three Icahn owned stocks in our Billionaire’s Portfolio. Follow me and look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up more than 27% this year. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
