Yesterday we talked about the move underway in interest rates. And we talked about the media’s (and Wall Street’s) desperate need to fit a story to the price.
On that note, they had been attributing rising U.S. rates to a vaguely attributed report from Bloomberg that suggested China might find our bonds less attractive. As I said, that type of speculation and chatter isn’t new (i.e. not news). Not only was it not news, China called it “fake news” today.
But as we discussed yesterday, rates are on the move for some very simple fundamental reasons. It’s the increasing probability that we will have the hottest U.S. and global growth in the post-crisis era, this year — underpinned by fiscal stimulus. And that’s inflationary. That’s bullish for interest rates (bearish for bonds).
So, again, money may just be in the early stages of moving OUT of bonds and cash, and BACK into stocks.
But, as we’ve also discussed, the real catalyst that will unshackle market interest rates from (still) near record low levels (globally) is the end of global QE.
And that will be determined by the central banks in Europe and Japan. On that note, the European Central Bank has already reduced its monthly asset purchases (announced last October), and they’ve announced a potential end date for QEin September of 2018. This morning, we heard the minutes from the most recent ECB meeting. And the overwhelming focus, was on stepping up the communication about the exit (the end of emergency policies). And don’t be surprised if European governments follow the lead of the U.S. with tax cuts to accompany the exit of QE.
In support of this outlook, the World Bank just stepped up growth expectations for the global economy for 2018 to 3.1%, saying 2018 is on track to be the first year since the financial crisis that the global economy will be operating at full capacity.
With the above in mind, you can see in this next chart just how disconnected the interest rate market is from the economic developments.
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As I said on Friday, people continue to look for what could bust the economy from here, and are missing out on what looks like the early stages of a boom.
We constantly hear about how the fundamentals don’t support the move in stocks. Yet, we’ve looked at plenty of fundamental reasons to believe that view (the gloom view) just doesn’t match the facts.
Remember, the two primary sources that carry the megahorn to feed the public’s appetite for market information both live in economic depression, relative to the pre-crisis days. That’s 1) traditional media, and 2) Wall Street.
As we know, the traditional media business, has been made more and more obsolete. And both the media, and Wall Street, continue to suffer from what I call “bubble bias.” Not the bubble of excess, but the bubble surrounding them that prevents them from understanding the real world and the real economy.
As I’ve said before, the Wall Street bubble for a very long time was a fat and happy one. But the for the past ten years, they came to the realization that Wall Street cash cow wasn’t going to return to the glory days. And their buddies weren’t getting their jobs back. And they’ve had market and economic crash goggles on ever since. Every data point they look at, every news item they see, every chart they study, seems to be viewed through the lens of “crash goggles.” Their bubble has been and continues to be dark.
Also, when we hear all of the messaging, we have to remember that many of the “veterans” on the trading and the news desks have no career or real-world experience prior to the great recession. Those in the low to mid 30s onlyknow the horrors of the financial crisis and the global central bank sponsored economic world that we continue to live in today. What is viewed as a black swan event for the average person, is viewed as a high probability event for them. And why shouldn’t it? They’ve seen the near collapse of the global economy and all of the calamity that has followed. Everything else looks quite possible!
Still, as I’ve said, if you awoke today from a decade-long slumber, and I told you that unemployment was under 5%, inflation was ultra-low, gas was $2.60, mortgage rates were under 4%, you could finance a new car for 2% and the stock market was at record highs, you would probably say, 1) that makes sense (for stocks), and 2) things must be going really well! Add to that, what we discussed on Friday: household net worth is at record highs, credit growth is at record highs and credit worthiness is at record highs.
We had nearly all of the same conditions a year ago. And I wrote precisely the same thing in one of my August Pro Perspective pieces. Stocks are up 17% since.
And now we can add to this mix: We have fiscal stimulus, which I think (for the reasons we’ve discussed over past weeks) is coming closer to fruition.
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As we discussed last week, the Presidential address to the joint sessions of Congress last night was a big market event. And as I discussed yesterday, growth and fiscal stimulus needed to be moved to the front burner of the daily narrative. The President delivered last night.
After he began speaking, one of the early headlines on my Reuters feed last night: TRUMP SAYS HE WILL BE ASKING CONGRESS TO APPROVE LEGISLATION THAT PRODUCES $1 TRILLION INVESTING IN INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCED THROUGH BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE CAPITAL.
Bingo! There’s a lot of talk about the inspiration of the speech, but growth is king in this environment, after 10 years of malaise and no improvement in sight. And the focus has shifted to growth. Stocks have had a huge day. Meanwhile, yields have been up but relatively tame. Gold has been down, but relatively tame. And the dollar has been up, but relatively tame.
German 2 year yields, which have been the sour spot, as they’ve slipped toward -1% in the past week, were up bouncing nicely today.
It’s not uncommon to see big global market participants ignore all else in key market moments, and just focus on one spot. That has been the case. And that spot is the stock market. The U.S. stock market is where the impact of a trillion dollar infrastructure spend, a massive tax cut, and broad deregulation can be most directly influenced and, as importantly, stocks are capable to absorbing large, large amounts of capital.
Now, it’s time to revisit some great catch up trades I’ve discussed for a while: German and Japanese stocks. A better U.S. is better for everyone, make no mistake. Hotter growth here, will mean hotter global growth, and it gives Europe and Japan a shot at recovery, especially with their central banks priming the pump with big QE, still.
On that note, let’s take a look at the charts …
So you can see the same period here for U.S., German and Japanese stocks, dating back to 2012, when the European Central Bank stepped in with intervention in the European sovereign bond market (at least promised to do so), that turned global economic sentiment and then then Japan came in months later with promises of a huge stimulus program. All stocks went up.
But you can see, stocks in Europe and Japan have yet to regain highs of 2015, after the oil price crash induced correction.
These stock markets look like a big catch up trade is coming, and it may be quick, following the catalyst of last nights U.S. Presidential address.
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We ended last week with a very strong jobs report, yet the measure of wage pressure was soft. That, for the near term, reduces expectations on how aggressive the Fed might be (but not a lot).
Still, the 10-year yield has drifted lower to start the week. It was 2.50% Friday afternoon. Today it’s closer to 2.40%. When the 10-year yield drifts lower, mortgage rates drift a little lower, back very close to 4% today. This all helps two of the most important tools the Fed has been focused on for the past eight years to drive economic recovery: stocks and housing.
The Trump administration, like the Fed, will need both stocks and housing to continue higher to maintain confidence in the economy, and in the agenda.
Now, on Friday I said Trump was hosting Japan’s Prime Minister Abe in Florida over the weekend for a round of golf at Mar-a-Lago. It looks like it’s this coming weekend, instead.
Interestingly, this comes as the Trump administration made a conscious effort on Friday to refocus the messaging from a protectionist narrative to an economic growth narrative.
Abe will be entering this meeting with President Trump under some peripheral scrutiny about trade imbalances. Japan runs about a $60 billion surplus with the United States. That’s about on par with Mexico, which has become a target for Trump in recent weeks. Still, as I said last week, it’s peanuts compared to China, and that’s where the Trump administration’s real attention lies.
Nonetheless, Abe is expected to come in with a plan to balance trade with the U.S., which includes working together on a big U.S. infrastructure program. And there is still considerable sensitivity surrounding the value of the yen (the Japanese currency).
As we know, under Abenomics, the yen has devalued by about 40% against the dollar. But as China has done often over the past decade, as they have headed into big meetings with global leaders, Japan seems to be walking its currency up in the days heading into the Abe/Trump meeting.
You can see in the chart above, the dollar has been in decline against the yen this year (the orange line falling represents a weaker dollar, stronger yen). The top in the USD/JPY exchange rate this year came when Trump’s chief trade negotiator was named on January 3rd. Robert Lighthizer worked in the Reagan administration and happened to be behind stiff tariffs imposed on Japan during that era on electronics.
Trump’s tough talk on trade, and the market’s continued focus on upcoming elections in Europe (that threaten to continue the trend of nationalism and protectionism) have stocks in Japan and Europe diverging from the strength we’re seeing in U.S. stocks. The Dow is above 20k. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks are still 10% off of the 2015 highs. German stocks are 7% off of 2015 highs.
But as I’ve said, growth solves a lot of problems. In addition to the underlying current of a better performing U.S. economy (with the pro-growth agenda in the pipeline), the data is already improving in both Germany and Japan. I suspect that Europe and Japan will soon be cleared from the fray of the trade protectionist rhetoric, and we’ll start seeing major European stock markets and the Japanese stock market climbing, and ultimately putting up a big number in 2017.
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After the past two weeks, that included a Fed decision, more BOJ action, the approval of Japanese fiscal stimulus, a rate cut and the return to QE for the Bank of England, and a strong jobs report, this week is a relative snoozer.
With that, every headline this week seems to contain the word Trump. Clearly the media thought a post by the former Fed Chairman, the architect of the global economic recovery and interventionist strategies that continue to dictate the stability of the global economy (and world, in general) today, wasn’t quite as important as Trump watching.
On Monday, Ben Bernanke wrote a blog post that laid out what appears to be his interpretation of a shift in gears for the Fed – an important message. Don’t forget, this is also the guy that may have the most intimate knowledge of where the world has been over the past decade, what it’s vulnerable to, and what the probable outcomes look like for the global economy. And he’s advising one of the biggest hedge funds in the world, the biggest bond fund in the world and one of the most important central banks in the world (at the moment), the Bank of Japan. And it’s safe to assume he still has influence plenty of influence at the Fed.
My takeaway from his post: The Fed’s forward guidance of the past two years has led to a tightening in financial conditions, which has led to weaker growth, lower market interest rates and lower inflation.
Why? Because people have responded to the Fed’s many, many promises of a higher interest rate environment, by pulling in the reins somewhat.
To step back a bit, while still in the midst of its third round of QE, the Fed determined in 2012, under Bernanke’s watch, that words (i.e. perception manipulation) had been as effective, if not more, than actual QE. In Europe, the ECB had proven that idea by warding off a bond market attack and looming defaults in Spain and Italy, and a collapse of the euro, by simply making promises and threats. With that in mind, and with the successful record of Bernanke’s verbal intervention along the way, the Fed ultimately abandoned QE in favor of “forward guidance.” That was the overtly stated gameplan by the Fed. Underpin confidence by telling people we are here, ready to act to ensure the recovery won’t run off of the rails — no more shock events.
The “forward guidance” game was working well until the Fed, under Yellen, started moving the goal posts. They gave a target on unemployment as a signal that the Fed would keep rates ultra low for quite some time. But the unemployment rate hit a lot sooner than they expected. They didn’t hike and they removed the target. Then they telegraphed their first rate hike for September of last year. Global markets then stirred on fears about China’s currency moves, and the Fed balked on its first rate move.
By the time they finally moved in December of last year, the market was already questioning the Fed’s confidence in the robustness of the U.S. economy, and with the first rate hike, the yield curve was flattening. The flattening of the yield curve (money moving out of short term Treasuries and into longer term Treasuries, instead of riskier assets) is a predictor of recession and an indicator that the market is betting the Fed made/is making a mistake.
And then consider the Fed’s economic projections that include the committee’s forecasts on interest rates. By showing the market/the world an expectation that rates will be dramatically higher in the coming months, quarters and years, Bernanke argued in his post that this “guidance” has had the opposite of the desired effect — it’s softened the economy.
So in recent months, starting back in March, the Fed began dramatically dialing back on the levels and speed they had been projecting for rates. It’s all beginning to look like the Fed should show the world they are positioned to well underestimate the outlook, rather than overestimate it, as it’s implied by Bernanke. The thought? Perhaps that can lead to the desired effect of better growth, hotter inflation.
This post by Bernanke is reversing some of the expectations that had been set in the market for a September or December rate hike by the Fed. And the U.S. 10-year yield has, again, fallen back — from 1.62% on Monday to a low of 1.50% today. Still, the Fed showed us in June they expect one to two hikes this year. Given where market rates are, they may still be overly hawkish.
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Yesterday we walked through some charts from key global stock markets. As we know, the S&P 500 has been leading the way, printing new highs this week.
U.S. stocks serve as a proxy on global economic stability confidence, so when stocks go up in the U.S., in this environment, there becomes a feedback loop of stability and confidence (higher stocks = better perception on stability and confidence = higher stocks …)
That said, as they begin to capitulate on the bear stories for stocks, the media is turning attention to opportunities in emerging markets. But as we observed yesterday in the charts, you don’t have to depart from the developed world to find very interesting investment opportunities. The broad stock market indicies in Germany and Japan look like a bullish technical breakout is coming (if not upon us) and should outpace gains in U.S. stocks in second half of the year.
Now, over the past few weeks, we’ve talked about the slide in oil and the potential risks that could re-emerge for the global economy and markets.
On Wednesday of last week, we said this divergence (in the chart below) between oil and stocks has hit an extreme — and said, “the oil ‘sharp bounce’ scenario is the safer bet to close the gap.”
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Given this divergence, a continued slide in oil would unquestionably destabilize the fundamentals again for the nascent recovery in energy companies.
With that, and given the rescue measures that global central banks extended in response to the oil bust earlier this year, it was good bet that the divergence in the chart above would be closed by a bounce back in oil.
That’s been the case as you can see in the updated chart below (the purple line rising).
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
At the peak today, oil had bounced 11% in just five trading days. Oil sustaining above the $40 is key for the stability of the energy industry (and thus the quelling the potential knock-on effects through banks and oil producing sovereigns). Below $40 is the danger zone.
In a fairly quiet week for markets (relative to last week), there was a very interesting piece written by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday.
Tomorrow we’ll dig a little deeper into his message, but it appears that the Fed’s recent downgrade on what they have been projecting for the U.S. economy (and the path of policy moves) is an attempt to stimulate economic activity, switching for optimistic forward guidance (which he argues stifled activity) to more pessimistic/dovish guidance (which might produce to opposite).
Remember, we’ve talked in recent months about the effect of positive surprises on markets and the economy. We’ve said that, given the ratcheting down of earnings expectations and expectations on economic data, that we were/are set up for positive surprises. Like it or not, that’s good for sentiment. And it’s good for markets. And it can translate into good things for the economy (more hiring, more investment, more spending).
The positive surprises have been clear in earnings. It’s happening in economic data. It looks like the Fed is consciously playing the game too.
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Today we want to look at some key charts as we head into the week.
First, to step back a bit, as we started last week, we had some big market events ahead of us. Japan was due to approve a big fiscal stimulus plan. The Bank of England was meeting on rates and the U.S. jobs report was on the docket to wrap up the first week of August.
As we discussed Thursday, the BOE announced they’ve returned to the QE game. Japan doubled the size of its stock buying plan. And the jobs report came in Friday with another solid report. As we thought, despite the volatility in the monthly numbers the media likes to overanalyze, the longer term trend continues to clearly argue the health of the job market is in good shape, and not a legitimate concern for the Fed’s rate path.
All together, the events of the week only solidified reasons to be long stocks.
Most importantly, stocks have been, and continue to be, a key tool for central bankers in this global economic recovery. They want and need stocks higher. A higher stock market provides fuel for economic activity by underpinning confidence and wealth creation, which encourages hiring, spending and more investment.
With that, as we’ve said, this is the sweet spot for stocks, where good news is good news for stocks (better outlook triggers capital flows out of cash and bonds, and into stocks), and bad news is good news for stocks (it triggers more stimulus).
When it comes to stocks, back on May 25th, we said “everyone could benefit by having a healthy dose of ‘fear of missing out.’ Stock returns tend to be lumpy over the long run. When we you wait to buy strength, you miss out on A LOT of the punch that contributes to the long run return for stocks.”
Fast forward to today, and the S&P 500 has printed yet another new record high.
But the horse is not already out of the barn on global stocks (including U.S. stocks).
Let’s take a look at the chart on the S&P 500…
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
You can see, we’ve broken out in U.S. stocks (very bullish).
Next, in the UK, the place people were most afraid of, just a little more than a month ago, traded near 14-month highs today and is nearing a breakout to record highs, with support of fresh central bank easing from the Bank of England.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
In the next two charts, we can see the opportunities to buy the laggards, in areas that have been beaten down on broader global economic concerns, but also benefiting directly from domestic central bank easing.
In the chart below, you can see German stocks have fallen hard from the highs of last year, but have technically broken the corrective downtrend. A return to the April highs of last year would be a 19% return for current levels.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
In the next chart, Japanese stocks also look like a break of this corrective downtrend is upon us. A return to the highs of last year would be a 25% run for the Nikkei. As we discussed last week, the sharp ascent in the chart below from the lower left corner of the chart can be attributed to the BOJ’s QE program, which first included a 1 trillion yen stock buying program and was later tripled to three trillion (a driver of the run from around 15k to 21k in the index). Last week, that stock buying program was doubled to six trillion yen.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Given the trajectory of the charts above (global stocks), which both promote and reflect global confidence, and the given lack of consequence that QE has had on meaningful inflation, the world’s inflation-fear hedge, gold, looks like its run into brick wall up here.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Remember, we have a convergence of fresh monetary policy in the world this year, with fiscal policy in Japan, and the growing appetite for fiscal policy in other key economies. That’s powerful fuel for global economic growth, risk appetite and stocks.
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As we’ve said, oil has been quietly sliding over the past three weeks. It closed yesterday more than 20% off of the highs of the year.
And we looked at this chart and said, this divergence has hit an extreme, something has to give.
Source: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Yesterday it was stocks. Today it was a sharp bounce in crude – up 4%. The oil “sharp bounce” scenario is the safer bet to close the gap on the chart above.
Alternatively, oil under $40 puts it in the danger zone for the global economy and broad financial market stability. With that, we had a close in the danger zone, under $40, yesterday. But it may turn out to be just a brief visit.
If we look at the longer term chart, the 200 day moving average comes in right in this $40 area ($40.67). Again, we had a close below yesterday, but a close back above the 200 day moving average today.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, TradingView
For technicians, two consecutive closes below the 200 day moving average would create some concern for this post-oil price bust recovery.
In that case, many companies in the struggling energy sector would be back on bankruptcy watch. But the global economic recovery can’t afford another bout with weaker oil prices, and the ugly baggage that comes with it (oil company defaults, which would lead to financial system instability and sovereign defaults). If two of the best billionaire oil traders in the world are right about oil, and we see $80 in the next year, this dip is a great buying opportunity (for the underlying commodity and energy stocks).
Tomorrow, we hear from the Bank of England. The expectations are that the BOE will cut rates to support economic activity in the face of Brexit uncertainty. But there’s also a decent bet being wagered that the BOE will return to QE (a second post-global financial crisis bond buying program). History tells us that, in this environment, central banks like to save bullets for the moments when crisis and fear is peaking. With that, the BOE may disappoint tomorrow. If so, it could pour some gas on the nascent rise in market rates that started yesterday in Japanese, German and American 10-year yields.
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Yesterday we pointed to the renewed risk that oil represented for stocks.
The persistent bleed in the price of oil for the past three weeks has been with little attention. Even the energy stocks, which have had huge runs since oil bottomed in February, were largely ignoring the slide in the most significant input for those businesses.
As we said yesterday, oil continued to leak lower, even as stocks printed a fresh record high yesterday. As oil went out at the key $40 level, the divergence between oil and stocks had reached an extreme. We said something has to give.
Today, it’s been stocks. Stocks have fallen back, following the lead of further declines in crude — which settles BELOW $40 today.
Why is oil important for stocks?
As we’ve said in a world where stability is king, central bankers have been very sensitive to swings in key financial markets, with the idea that confidence and the perception of stability can quickly become unhinged by market moves. When that happens, it becomes a big, viable threat to the global economic recovery and outlook.
Now, we’ve talked a lot about the divergence between yields and stocks too. In this post-global financial crisis world, when people feel better about the global outlook, they take risk. That means they buy stocks and they move money OUT of the “safe-haven” treasury market. That means yields should move higher, while stock move higher.
That hasn’t been the case. Yields have continued to trade toward the record lows in recent weeks, even as stocks have traded to new record highs. Why? It’s being driven by capital flows and speculation related to central bank action in Japan and Europe. U.S. Treasuries are offering both a relative safe haven, and a positive yield in a world of negative yields. That keeps freshly printed global money flowing into U.S. Treasuries, which drives up price, and drives down the yield.
With that, logic has again been tossed on its head today. Stocks are falling, along with oil. This is typically a trigger for some elevated risk aversion. One would think Treasuries would be rallying today, pushing yields lower. It has been the opposite.
It may have a lot to do with the fiscal stimulus package that was approved today (overnight) in Japan. The central banks have had the pedal pinned to the floor on monetary policy for the better part of the past seven years, and they’ve gotten no help from governments on fiscal stimulus. Today’s move in Japan may represent a changing of the stimulus guard. With that, the bet on lower yields is being reversed, not just in the U.S., but in Europe and Japan.
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Stocks printed another fresh record high in the S&P 500 today before falling back. As we discussed Friday, the BOJ undershot expectations last week, because many thought anything short of full blown debt monetization (to coincide with fresh fiscal stimulus to be approved this week) was a disappointment.
But doubling the size of ETF purchases was kind of a big deal, especially if you consider where their stock buying program has come from (1 trillion yen), where it is now (6 trillion yen), and what it has meant for the performance of Japanese stocks (and global stocks).
Still, just as the Fed opened the door last week to a September rate hike, the BOJ opened the door to a revamp of its current QE program in September.
Remember, the last time the BOJ came in with a doubling down on their QE program (a QE2 for the BOJ) was in October of 2014. That same month, the Fed ended its QE program. As we’ve said, the Fed has only had the confidence to end emergency policies (that includes the beginning of a tightening cycle) because they know the BOJ is there to take the QE torch.
Now, with earnings season nearing an end, we’ve now heard from a majority of the companies in the S&P 500, and the positive earnings surprises continue to provide fuel for stocks.
When earnings reports were kicking off in the middle of last month, we said: “Among the reasons we’ve thought stocks look well underpinned and the economy could be in the early stages of a boom, is that the bar has been set so low, in terms of expectations, that we’re set up for positive surprises — both in earnings and economic data. Surprises create changes in outlooks. And ‘change’ is the primary catalyst that moves/reprices markets.
Last earnings seasons 72% of the companies in the S&P 500 beat expectations. Still, companies dialed down expectations coming into the second quarter. Wall Street then lowers its bar. And they beat.
Like it or not, that’s how Wall Street works and has always worked. FACTSET says on average (the five-year average) 67% of companies in the S&P 500 beat their analyst expectations. And they beat by an average of 4%….As we know, better than expected earnings are fuel for stocks.”
So now 71% of the companies that have reported have beaten expectations on earnings for the past quarter. And 57% have beaten on revenues. The media will continue to point to the lower decline in earnings compared to last year and wonder why stocks are going higher. But, again, that information was priced in, and stocks reprice on change. And earnings beats represent change/ new information.
This week we have another jobs report. Non farm payrolls/job creation is the data point that market participants and the media have been trained for decades to over analyze/over-emphasize. We’ve had and will have undershoots and overshoots on the number. But for the Fed, an unemployment rate around 5% and non farm payroll number averaging 200k a month, the jobs data is in pretty good shape.
The biggest risk to stocks in the very near term is oil. We talked about keeping a close eye on the slide in oil, a market that was, at one point earlier this year, THE most important market in the world.
On that note, we said, “in a world where stability is king, central bankers have been very sensitive to swings in key financial markets, with the idea that confidence and the perception of stability can quickly become unhinged by market moves. When that happens, it becomes a big, viable threat to the global economic recovery and outlook.”
At $26 oil was threatening another global financial crisis. It bounced aggressively after the BOJ stepped in and intervened in USDJPY back in early February. Oil bottomed that day, so did stocks. Soon thereafter, oil doubled and stocks have printed fresh record highs.
But oil has been moving lower in recent weeks. As we said, this will grow in importance, and send negative signals, if it were to continue lower.
It has indeed continued to slide, closing today just above $40. We’ve looked at this chart of oil and the S&P 500.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
When the oil price bust was threatening economic stability, stocks were moving almost tick for tick with the slide in oil. But we’ve had some significant divergence in the past few weeks, with oil going lower and stocks going higher. And oil trades $40 today, which is a huge level. Expect this gap to close, with either a slide in stocks, or a nice bounce on the retracement in oil. We bet on the latter.
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This fund returned an incredible 52% last year, while the S&P 500 was flat. And since 1999, they’ve done 40% a year. And they’ve done it without one losing year. For perspective, that takes every $100,000 to $30 million.
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As I said 
After the past two weeks, that included a Fed decision, more BOJ action, the approval of Japanese fiscal stimulus, a rate cut and the return to QE for the Bank of England, and a strong jobs report, this week is a relative snoozer.
