Yesterday we talked about the two big central bank events in focus today. Given that the Bank of Japan had an unusual opportunity to decide on policy before the Fed (first at bat this week), I thought the BOJ could steal the show.
Indeed, the BOJ acted. The Fed stood pat. But thus far, the market response has been fairly muted – not exactly a show stealing response. But as we’ve discussed, two key hammers for the BOJ in achieving a turnaround in inflation and the Japanese economy are: 1) a weaker yen, and 2) higher Japanese stocks.
Their latest tweaks should help swing those hammers.
Bernanke wrote a blog post today with his analysis on the moves in Japan. Given he’s met with/advised the BOJ over the past few months, everyone should be perking up to hear his reaction.
Let’s talk about the moves from the BOJ …
One might think that the easy, winning headline for the BOJ (to influence stocks and the yen) would be an increase in the size of its QE program. They kicked off in 2013 announcing purchases of 60 for 70 trillion yen ($800 billion) a year. They upped the ante to 80 trillion yen in October of 2014. On that October announcement, Japanese stocks took off and the yen plunged – two highly desirable outcomes for the BOJ.
But all central bank credibility is in jeopardy at this stage in the global economic recovery. Going back to the well of bigger asset purchases could be dangerous if the market votes heavily against it by buying yen and selling Japanese stocks. After all, following three years of big asset purchases, the BOJ has failed to reach its inflation and economic objectives.
They didn’t take that road (the explicit bigger QE headline). Instead, the BOJ had two big tweaks to its program. First, they announced that they want to control the 10-year government bond yield. They want to peg it at zero.
What does this accomplish? Bernanke says this is effectively QE. Instead of telling us the size of purchase, they’re telling us the price on which they will either or buy or sell to maintain. If the market decides to dump JGB’s, the BOJ could end up buying more (maybe a lot more) than their current 80 trillion yen a year. Bernanke also calls the move to peg rates, a stealth monetary financing of government spending (which can be a stealth debt monetization).
Secondly, the BOJ said today that they want to overshoot their 2% inflation target, which Bernanke argues allows them to execute on their plans until inflation is sustainable.
It all looks like a massive devaluation of the yen scenario plays well with these policy moves in Japan, both as a response to these policies, and a complement to these policies (self-reinforcing). Though the initial response in the currency markets has been a stronger yen.
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Global markets continue to swing around today. Remember, the past couple of days we’ve looked at the three most important markets in the world right now: U.S., German and Japanese 10-year government bonds.
In recent days, German and Japanese debt have swung back into positive territory. That’s a huge signal for markets, and it’s sustaining today – with German 10-year yields now at +8 basis points, and Japanese yields hanging around the zero line, after six months in negative territory.
Stocks are on the slide again, though. And the volatility index for stocks is surging again. Those two observations alone would have you thinking risk is elevated and perhaps a “calling uncle” stage is upon us and/or coming down the pike, especially if it’s a bubbly bond market. If that’s the case, gold should be screaming. It’s not. Gold is down today, steadily falling over the past five days.
So if you have a penchant for understanding and diagnosing every tick in the markets, as the media does, you will likely be a little confused by the inter-market relationships of the past few days.
That’s been the prevailing message from the Delivering Alpha conference today in New York: Confusion. Delivering Alpha is another high profile, big investor/best ideas conference. There are several conferences throughout the year now that the media covers heavily. And it’s been a platform for big investors to talk their books and, sometimes, get some meaningful follow on support for their positions.
Interestingly, one of the panelist today, Bill Miller, thinks we’ll see continued higher stocks, but lower bonds (i.e. higher yields/rates). Miller is a legendary fund manager. He beat the market 15 consecutive years, from the 90s into the early 2000s.
Miller’s view fits nicely with the themes we talk about here in my daily notes. Still, people are having a hard time understanding the disconnect between this theme and the historical relationship between stocks and bonds.
Let’s talk about why …
Historically, when rates go up, stocks go down — and vice versa. There is an inverse correlation.
This see-saw of capital flow from stocks to bonds tends to happen, in normal times, when stocks are hot and the economy is hot and the Fed responds with a rate hiking cycle. The rate path cools the economy, which puts pressure on stocks. That’s a signal to sell. And rising rates creates a more attractive risk-adjusted return for investors, so money moves out of stocks and into bonds.
But in this world, when the Fed is moving off of the zero line for rates, with the hope of being able to escape emergency policies and slowly normalize rates, they aren’t doing it with the intent of cooling off a hot economy (as would be the motive in normal times). They’re doing it and praying that they don’t cool off or destabilize a sluggishly growing economy. They’re hoping that a slow “normalization” in rates can actually provide some positive influence on the economy, by 1) sending a message to consumers and businesses that the economy is strong enough and robust enough to end emergency level policy. And by 2) restoring some degree of proper function in the financial system via a risk-free yield. Better economic outlook is good for stocks. And historically, when rates are lower than normal (under the long term average of 3% on the Fed Funds rate), P/E multiples run north of 20 – which gives plenty of room for multiple expansion on expected earnings (i.e. supports the bullish stocks case).
That’s why I think stocks go higher and rates go higher in the U.S. I assume that’s why Bill Miller (the legendary fund manager) thinks so too. It all assumes the ECB and the BOJ do their part – carrying the QE torch, which translates to, standing ready to act against any shocks that could derail the global economy.
But even if the Fed is able to carry on with a higher rate path, they continue to walk that fine line, as we discussed yesterday, of managing a slow crawl higher in key benchmark market rates (like the 10-year yield). An abrupt move higher in market rates would undo a lot of economic progress by killing the housing market recovery and resetting consumer loans higher (killing consumer spending and activity).
We headed into the weekend with a market that was spooked by a sharp run up in global yields. On Friday, we looked at the three most important markets in the world at this very moment: U.S. yields, German yields and Japanese yields.
On the latter two, both German and Japanese yields had been deeply in negative yield territory. And the perception of negative rates going deeper (a deflation forever message), had been an anchor, holding down U.S. market rates.
But in just three days, the tide turned. On Friday, German yields closed above the zero line for the first time since June 23rd. Guess what day that was?
Brexit.
And Japanese 10-year yields had traveled as low as 33 basis points. And in a little more than a month, it has all swung back sharply. As of today, yields on Japanese 10-year government debt are back in positive territory – huge news.
So why did stocks rally back sharply today, as much as 2.6% off of the lows of this morning – even as yields continued to tick higher? Why did volatility slide lower (the VIX, as many people like to refer to as, the “fear” index)?
Here’s why.
First, the ugly state of the government bond market, with nearly 12 trillion dollars in negative yield territory as of just last week, served as a warning signal on the global economy. As I’ve discussed before, over the history of Fed QE, when the Fed telegraphed QE, rates went lower. But when they began the actual execution of QE (buying bonds), rates went higher, not lower (contrary to popular expectations). Because the market began pricing in a better economic outlook, given the Fed’s actions.
With that in mind, the ECB and the BOJ have been in full bore QE execution mode, but rates have continued to leak lower.
That sends a confusing, if not cautionary, signal to markets, which is adding to the feedback loop (markets signaling uncertainty = more investor uncertainty = markets signaling uncertainty).
Now, with government bond yields ticking higher, and key Japanese and German debt benchmarks leaving negative yield territory, it should be a boost for sentiment toward the global economic outlook. Thus, we get a sharp bounce back in stocks today, and a less fearful market message.
Keep in mind, even after the move in rates on Friday, we’re still sitting at 1.66% in the U.S. 10-year. Before the Fed pulled the trigger on its first rate hike, in the post-crisis period, the U.S. 10-year was trading around 2.25%. As of last week, it was trading closer to 1.50%. That’s 75 basis points lower, very near record lows, AFTER the Fed’s first attempt to start normalizing rates. Don’t worry, rates are still very, very low.
Still, the biggest risk to the stability of the bond market is, positioning: The bond market is extremely long. If the rate picture swung dramatically and quickly higher, the mere positioning alone (as the longs all ran for the exit door) would exacerbate the spike. That would pump up mortgage rates, and all consumer interest rates, which would grind the economy to a halt and likely destabilize the housing market again. And, of course, the Fed would be stuck with another crisis, and little ammunition.
As Bernanke said last month, the Fed has done damage to their own cause by so aggressively telegraphing a tighter interest rate environment. In that instance, he was referring to the demand destruction caused by the fear of higher rates and a slower economy. But as we discussed above, the Fed also has risk that their hawkish messaging can run market rates up and create the same damage.
Bottom line: The Fed is walking a fine line, which is precisely why they continue to sway on their course, leaning one way, and then having to reverse and shift their weight the other way.
This time last month, the famed oil trader—and oil bull—Andy Hall was dealing with a sub-$40 oil market again. And he was again explaining losses to investors in his multi-billion dollar hedge fund.
A guy that has made a career, and hundreds of millions of dollar in personal wealth, picking tops and bottoms in oil, had entered 2016 coming off his worst year ever. And 2016 started even worse.
I’ve talked about the oil price bust extensively, at the depths of the decline in January and February. While most were glorifying the benefits of a few extra bucks in the pockets of consumers from low gas prices, we walked through the ugly outcome of persistently low oil prices. It would be another global financial crisis, as failing energy companies and defaulting oil producing countries would crush banks, and the dominos would fall from there. Unfortunately, the central banks don’t have the ammunition to pull the world back from the edge of disaster for a second time.
With that, central banks stepped in with more easing in the face of the oil price threat, and oil bounced sharply.
Hall’s fund bounced sharply too, running up nearly 25% for the year, by the end of June. But he gave a lot of it back by the time July ended. And now, again, oil is closer to $40 than $50. Thanks to a report yesterday, that oil supplies were bigger than expected, the price of crude has fallen 10% since Friday of last week.
Hall was the CitigroupC +0.13% oil trader who made billions of dollars for the bank energy trading arm, Phibro, in the early-to mid-2000s. He was one of the first to load up on oil futures in 2002, when oil was sub-$30, on the thesis that a boom in demand was coming from China.
He reportedly made $800 million in profits for Citi in 2005 from his original bullish bet. He then made more than $1 billion in 2008 for the bank, as oil prices soared to $147 a barrel and then abruptly crashed. He profited handsomely from both sides, earning a payout from Citi of more than $100 million.
So he’s a guy that has been very right about turning points, and big trends. And he’s been pounding the table for much higher oil prices. He thinks oil prices are in for a “violent reversal” (higher). With an important OPEC meeting scheduled for later this month, Hall, in a past investor letter, reminded people how powerful an OPEC policy shift can be. In 1986, the mere hint of an OPEC policy move sent oil up 50% in just 24 hours.
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Last Thursday, everyone was awaiting the Friday Jackson Hole speech from Yellen. I suggested that, while all eyes were on Yellen, maybe Kuroda (the head of the BOJ) would steal the show: “he could conjure up some Bernanke style QE3. Not a bad bet to be long USD/JPY and dollar-denominated Nikkei through the weekend (ETF, DBJP or DXJ).”
Indeed, Yellen was short on clarity as we’ve discussed in recent days. As of this afternoon, stocks are now unchanged from Thursday afternoon (just prior to her speech). And the 10-year yield is right where it was before she spoke — and looking like a coin flip on which direction it may break. The pain is lower, so it will probably go lower.
As for Kuroda, he did indeed steal the show, at least in terms of market impact. On Saturday, Kuroda hit the wires saying its negative rate policy was far from reaching the limit and said they would act with more QE or deeper negative rates “without hesitation.” That’s a greenlight for buying Japanese stocks and selling the yen (buying USD/JPY).
The Nikkei is up 1.5% from Friday’s close, and USD/JPY is up 2.7% (yen down).
Was Kuroda telegraphing another big round of fresh QE (as Bernanke did in 2012)? Maybe. He said inflation remains vulnerable in Japan and is responding “differently” (i.e. worse) to shocks like falling oil prices.
Inflation in Japan, even after rounds of unprecedented QE, is back in negative territory and has been for five consecutive months of year-over-year deflation. The U.S. economy looks like its running hot compared to Japan. It’s not a bad bet to expect Japan to act first, with more QE, to pump asset prices, and then the Fed would have a little more breathing room to make another hike (either December) or early next year.
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The Fed’s Janet Yellen was the focal point for markets for the week. She had a scheduled speech at the annual Fed conference at Jackson Hole.
When her speech was finally made public Friday morning, the response in markets was uncertainty (the most used word for the past nine years).
Stocks went up, then down. Yields went down, then up.
So what do we make of it? Let’s start with the headlines that hit the wire Friday morning.
The world was wondering if Yellen would support the messaging from some of her fellow Fed members–that a September rate hike is on the table. Or would she continue the backstepping (dovish speak) the Fed has done for the past five months. The answer was ‘yes.’ She did both.
Yellen said the case for rate hikes has strengthened (yellow marker) because the data is nearing their goals (employment and inflation–the white marker). Ah, rate hike. But then she said the Fed expects inflation to hit the target 2% in the next few years (circled)! And then talked about the strategy for more QE. Huh? And then to top it off, she said they might move the goalposts. They might move the inflation target higher, and start targeting GDP. That means they would be happy to leave conditions ultra accommodative until those higher targets are met. Clearly dovish.
As I said Thursday, they want to raise rates to get the financial system closer to proper functioning, but they don’t want to cause a recession. The Fed wants to raise short-term rates, but promote a flatter yield curve (i.e. promote expectations that the economy will continue to be soft) to keep the market interest rates low, which keeps the housing market on the rails and the economic activity on the rails.
Remember, we talked about the piece Bernanke wrote a couple of weeks ago, where he suggested exactly this type of perception manipulation from the Fed, to balance the need to raise rates, without killing the economy.
That looks like the game plan.
Have a great weekend!
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
As we head into the end of August, people continue to parse every word and move the Fed makes. Yellen gives a speech later this week at Jackson Hole (at an economic conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed), where her predecessor Bernanke once lit a fire under asset prices by telegraphing another round of QE.
Still, a quarter point hike (or not) from a level that remains near zero, shouldn’t be top on everyone’s mind. Keep in mind a huge chunk of the developed world’s sovereign bond market is in negative yield territory. And just two weeks ago Bernanke himself, intimated, not only should the Fed not raise rates soon, but could do everyone a favor — including the economy — by dialing down market expectations of such.
But the point we’ve been focused on is U.S. market and economic performance. Is the landscape favorable or unfavorable?
The narrative in the media (and for much of Wall Street) would have you think unfavorable. And given that largely pessimistic view of what lies ahead, expectations are low. When expectations are low (or skewed either direction) you get the opportunity to surprise. And positive surprises, with respect to the economy, can be a self-reinforcing events.
The reality is, we have a fundamental backdrop that provides fertile ground for good economic activity.
For perspective, let’s take a look at a few charts.
We have unemployment under 5%. Relative to history, it’s clearly in territory to fuel solid growth, but still far from a tight labor market.
What about the “real” unemployment rate all of the bears often refer to. When you add in “marginally attached” or discouraged job seekers and those working part-time for economic reasons (working part time but would like full time jobs) the rate is higher. But as you can see in the chart below that rate (the blue line) is returning to pre-crisis levels.
In the next chart, as we know, mortgage rates are at record lows – a 30 year fixed mortgage for about 3.5%.
Car loans are near record lows. This Fed chart shows near record lows. Take a look at your local credit union or car dealer and you’ll find used car loans going for 2%-3% and new car loans going for 0%-1%.
What about gas? In the chart below, you can see that gas is cheap relative to the past fifteen years, and after adjusted for inflation it’s near the cheapest levels ever.
Add to that, household balance sheets are in the best shape in a very long time. This chart goes back more than three decades and shows household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income.
As we’ve discussed before, the central banks have have pinned down interest rates that have warded off a deflationary spiral — and they’ve created the framework of incentives to hire, spend and invest. You can see a lot of that work reflected in the charts above.
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We’ve talked about the recent public portfolio disclosures that have made in recent days by the world’s biggest investors.
And as we’ve discussed, the 13F filings only offer value to the extent that there is some skilled analysis applied. Loads of managers file 13Fs every quarter. And the difference in manager talent, strategies, portfolio sizes … run the gamut.
Through our research of over 15 years, among the most predictive factors in these filings is the presence of high conviction positions. To put it simply, the bigger the position relative to the size of their portfolio, the better. Concentrated positions show conviction. Conviction tends to result in a higher probability of success, especially when the investor has a controlling stake and is influencing (or seeking to influence) management. At that stage, these positions will show up first, before the quarterly 13F filing, in more timely filings called a 13D (or 13G) filings.
Here’s a look at a specific case that fits that profile, with some detail on why it matters.
If we look across high conviction positions among the recent 13F filings, among the highest, we find Carmike Cinemas (symbol CKEC). Mittleman Brothers, a $410 million hedge fund and value investment advisor, runs a concentrated portfolio, and owns 9.6% of the CKEC.
The stake represents (as of the most recent 13F filing) more than 31% of its long U.S. equity portfolio (more than 18% of its overall portfolio). That’s a huge stake.
After fees the Mittleman Brothers have returned 17% annualized since inception (2003). So we have a manager that has doubled the S&P 500 over the 14 years, runs a concentrated portfolio, and has an ultra-high conviction stock in CKEC. And in this particular case, they have the ability to influence the outcome in CKEC.
The fund filed a 13D on Carmike back in March, which means they intended to influence management. Mittleman has since been trying to block a sale of Carmike to AMC Entertainment Holdings for a value they deem “unacceptably low.”
At the time of the first takeover offer, the stock traded at just around $25 (so a $30 takeout would be a 20% premium). The stock now trades at $31. But based on industry multiples, Mittleman argues the company should be sold for no less than $40, and as much as $47. The bid has since been raised, but remains at levels Mittleman has deemed unacceptable.
The moral of the story: As we know, management’s mandate in public companies is to maximize shareholder value, but unfortunately it doesn’t always happen (most of the time, only after their interests are maximized). That’s why siding with influential shareholders that are fighting to maximize your return on investment is critical. In the case of Carmike, you have management that is willing to give away the company for as little as 70 cents on the dollar (according to view of one of its biggest shareholders).
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
Yesterday was the deadline for all big investors to submit, to the SEC, a public snapshot of their portfolios for the quarter ended June 30th.
On that note, as we’ve discussed, this information is covered hot and heavy by the media. You often see headlines like these (these are actual headlines from yesterday): “Activist hedge fund ValueAct takes about 2 percent stake in Morgan Stanley” or “George Soros sells off Apple stake during the second quarter.”
On the above stories, if you own Morgan Stanley should you feel good about it? Conversely, if you own Apple, should you be worried? The heavy coverage of the topic both online and on television implies “yes” to both, which likely gets the average investor stirring. But there’s never context given as to whether or not the information is meaningful, and there’s never evidence given as to what the results tend to be for those that follow. The reason is, it requires a lot of hard work, experience, ingenuity and proprietary research to draw any conclusions from the information.
Still, it’s safe to assume the UK event had considerable influence on the holdings of the world’s biggest investors. Global markets swung violently on the news back in June. Remember, between June 23rd and June 27th, the S&P 500 fell as much as 5.7%. It made it all back the subsequent four days.
So given the timing of the portfolio snapshot with the Brexit fears, let’s talk about Apple, the most widely held stock in the world and the largest constituent in the market cap weighted S&P 500. The headlines were scrolling fast and furious on Apple yesterday, following the filings from billionaire investors David Einhorn, George Soros and Chase Coleman – all of which sold Apple shares in the quarter. Now, it’s important to understand that these funds can trade Apple with virtual anonymity between quarters. The stock is too large for anyone one investor to take a 5% “activist” stake, which would trigger the requirement of a 13D filing with the SEC, which would require updated filings (or amendments) within 10 days of any change in the position size (sell one share, you have to report it).
On that note, let’s start some perspective on Einhorn’s Apple stake: Going into the second quarter Einhorn’s biggest position, by far, was Apple. He had 15% of his fund in the stock (a huge position). It would only make since that he would trim the position and neutralize some risk into an uncertain macro event. In fact, in his second quarter letter, Einhorn brags that they have done a good job of “trading” Apple (i.e. managing the downside). Still, as of the end of Q2, Apple was a very large position, at 12% of his fund.
What about the tech investing genius billionaire Chase Coleman? Coleman had 9% of his $7 billion fund (long public equities) in Apple going into the second quarter. By the end, he had cut it by 75%. Again, playing defense into Brexit. Apple stock is 16% higher than it traded on June 30. Coleman may very well have put the full position back on since the June 30 snapshot (likely).
George Soros? First, we should note that Soros is the world’s best global macro investor. He’s an agile investor that will load up on a theme and just as quickly reverse course and position for another probable outcome. For a career, Soros’ bread has been buttered betting on the unexpected outcome. That’s where the big wins come. Brexit was unexpected, thus his trimming of Apple, the stock with the biggest contribution to his view on a slide in the S&P 500.
And then we have arguably the greatest investor of all-time, Warren Buffett. While others ran from Apple, Buffett increased his stake by more than 55%. Why? Buffett has made his living for more than 50 years buying good companies when everyone else is selling. As he says, “be greedy when others are fearful.”
That’s a sliver of perspective on the popular 13F filings of the past few days. As I said yesterday, the presence of a big investor in a stock is rarely valuable information. Only a small percentage of those reporting investors have the powerful combination of size, influence and portfolio concentration to make their presence alone a potential catalyst for change in a company/and a repricing of the stock.
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Following a quiet week on the news and economic data front, this week will have plenty of events and catalysts for markets, as we sit at record highs in U.S. stocks.
We talked last week about the sharp bounce back in oil. That bounce continues today (+2.5%), and is being driven by comments from Saudi Arabia that an oil production freeze may finally come to put a floor under oil.
Why does it matter? OPEC, led by its biggest oil producer, Saudi Arabia, has rigged oil prices for the better part of two years in an attempt to ward off new shale industry competition. That brought the U.S. energy industry to its knees earlier this year, before central banks stepped in with “stimulus” measures that happened to bottom out oil and double the price in just weeks. Still, low prices are finally reaching the breaking point for all oil producers (including the Saudis and fellow OPEC countries).
So higher oil (above $40) takes shock risk off of the table for global markets. As such, global stocks continue to climb. It started in China this morning, with a 3% plus rise (as we said in early July, It May Be Time To Buy Chinese Stocks).
Among the events this week, the biggest investors in the world are filing required quarterly public portfolio disclosures with the SEC (13F filings). This is where we get a glimpse into their portfolios.
Of course, it’s a widely covered event these days by the media. And there’s interesting information to be gleaned. But of 400 or so top funds/investors, only 20-30 have the combination of size/influence and hold a concentrated portfolio of high conviction investments to make the prospect of following their lead, productive. Most of the lot allocate across so many stocks their portfolio performance mirrors the broader indices.
Of this small group of investors, what’s most valuable are the timely public disclosures (13D filings) they make when they’ve taken a controlling interest in a company with the intent to create change — their conviction level, and their clear and articulated game plan for unlocking value.
With filings continuing throughout the day today, we’ll talk more this week about the value of following the lead of some of the best investors in the world.
Follow The Lead Of Great Investors Like Warren Buffett In Our Billionaire’s Portfolio
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
