The last big market event of the year will be Wednesday, when the Fed decides on rates.
As we’ve discussed, from the bottom in rates earlier this year, the interest rate market has had an enormous move. That has a lot of people worried about 1) a tightening that has already taken place in the credit markets, and 2) the potential drag it may have on what has been an improving recovery. But remember, we headed into the Fed’s first post-crisis rate hike, last December, with the 10 year yield trading at 2.25%.
And while rates have since done a nearly 100 basis point round trip, we’ll head into this week’s meeting with the 10 year trading around 2.50%. With that, the market has simply priced-in the rate hike this week, and importantly, is sending the message that the economy can handle it.
However, what has been the risk, going into this meeting, is the potential for the Fed to overreact on the interest rate outlook in response to the pro-growth inititiaves coming from the Trump administration. As we found last year, overly optimistic guidance from the Fed has a tightening effect in this environment. People began bracing ealier this year for a slower economy, if not a Fed induced recession, after the Fed projected four rate hikes this year.
The good news is, as we discussed last week, the two voting Fed members that were marched out in front of cameras last week, both toed the line of Yellen’s communications strategy, expressing caution and a slow and reactive path of rate hikes (no hint of a bubbling up of optimism). Again, that should keep the equities train moving in the positive direction through the year end.
In fact, both equities and oil look poised to take advantage of thin holiday markets. We may see a few more percentage points added to stocks before New Years, especially given the catalyst of the Trump tweet. And we may very well see a drift up to $60 in oil in a thin market.
We’ve had the first production cut from OPEC in eight years. And as of this weekend, we have an agreement by non-OPEC producers to cut oil production too. That gapped oil prices higher to open the week, and has confirmed a clean long term technical reversal pattern in oil.
This is a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern in oil. The break of the neckline today projects a move to $77. Some of the best and most informed oil traders in the world have been predicting that area for oil prices since this past summer.
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We’ve talked a lot about the set ups for big moves in Japanese and German stocks, as these major stock markets have lagged the recovery in the U.S.
Many have yet to come to the realization that a higher growth, healthier U.S. economy is good for everyone — starting with developed marketeconomies. And it unquestionably applies to emerging market economies, despite the fears of trade constraints.
A trillion dollars of U.S. money to be repatriated, has the dollar on a run that will likely end with USDJPY dramatically higher, and the euro dramatically lower (maybe all-time lows of 0.83 cents, before it’s said and done). This is wildly stimulative for those economies, and inflation producing for two spots in the world that have been staring down the abyss of deflation.
This currency effect, along with the higher U.S. growth effect on German and Japanese stocks will put the stock markets in these countries into aggressive catch up mode. I think the acceleration started this week.
As I said last week, Japanese stocks still haven’t yet taken out the 2015 highs. Nor have German stocks, though both made up significant ground this week. Yen hedged Nikkei was up 4.5% this week. The euro hedged Dax was up 7.6%.
What about U.S. stocks? It’s not too late. As I’ve said, it’s just getting started.
We’ve talked quite a bit about the simple fundamental and technical reasons stocks are climbing and still have a lot of upside ahead, but it’s worth reiterating. The long-term trajectory of stocks still has a large gap to close to restore the lost gains of the past nine-plus years, from the 2007 pre-crisis highs. And from a valuation standpoint, stocks are still quite cheap relative to ultra-low interest rate environments. Add to that, a boost in growth will make the stock market even cheaper. As the “E” in the P/E goes up, the ratio goes down. It all argues for much higher stocks. All we’ve needed is a catalyst. And now we have it. It’s the Trump effect.
But it has little to do with blindly assuming a perfect presidential run. It has everything to do with a policy sea change, in a world that has been starving (desperately needing) radical structural change to promote growth.
Not only is this catch up time for foreign stocks. But it’s catch up time for the average investor. The outlook for a sustainable and higher growth economy, along with investor and business-friendly policies is setting the table for an era of solid wealth creation, in a world that has been stagnant for too long. That stagnation has put both pension funds and individual retirement accounts in mathematically dire situations when projecting out retirement benefits. So while some folks with limited perspective continue to ask if it’s too late to get off of the sidelines and into stocks, the reality is, it’s the perfect time. For help, follow me and look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up more than 27% this year. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Back in early June I talked about the building story for a breakout in natural gas prices.
Oil had doubled off of the bottom, but natural gas had lagged the move. This created really compelling opportunities for the natural gas stocks that had survived the downturn–and for those that had emerged from bankrupcy positioned to be debt-free cash machines in a higher price environment.
We looked at this chart as it was setup for a big trend break …
It was trading at $2.60 at the time and, as I said, “it looked like the bounce was just getting started” and “could be looking at the early stages of a big run in nat gas prices,” especially given that it was trailing the double that had already taken place in oil.
That break happened in October. And natural gas traded above $3.70 today. Four bucks is near the midpoint of the $6.50-$1.65 range of the past three years. And we’re getting close.
Remember, I said natural gas stocks are a leveraged play on natural gas prices. And back in June I noted the move in Consol Energy (CNX), which had already quadrupled since January. It sounds like you missed the boat? It’s nearly doubled since June!
We have 15% exposure to natural gas related companies in our Billionaire’s Portfolio. Follow me and look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks – they tend to be in first, before stocks like Consol make their moves. Our portfolio is up more than 27% this year. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Stocks continue to print new highs. And many continue to doubt the rally (as they have for much of the post-crisis recovery).
They continue to say stocks are priced for perfection, implying that stocks are expensive, and/or that investors are assuming a perfect Presidency from Trump. But remember, we’ve talked about the massive fundamental and technical performance gap that has still yet to be closed, dating back to the 2007 pre-crisis peak. I did this analysis again just a few days after the election. You can see it here: “The Trump Effect Will Make Stocks Extraordinarily Cheap.”
Now, a few days ago, we talked about buying the stocks of the guests of Trump Tower. Goldman comes to mind, as the Wall Street powerhouse has been well represented in the Trump plan, including the new Treasury Secretary appointment. Goldman is the best performing Dow stock over the past month. And we talked about the meeting with Japanese investor, Masayoshi Son, at Trump Tower this week. Son’s gigantic (80%+) stake in Sprint is up 11% sinceTuesday.
With that said, the billionaire activist investor, Carl Icahn, has been out doing interviews the past two days. Let’s talk about Icahn, because there is perhaps no one investor that should benefit more from the Trump administration. Remember, Icahn was an early supporter for Trump. He’s been an advisor throughout and has helped shape policy plans for the President-elect.
What has been the sore spot for Icahn’s underperforming portfolio the past two years? Energy. It has been heavily weighted in his portfolio the past two years. And no surprise, he’s had steep declines in the value of his portfolio the past two years.
But Icahn doesn’t see his energy stakes as bad investments. Rather, he thinks his stocks have been unfairly harmed by reckless regulation. For that, he’s fought. He’s penned a letter to the EPA a few months ago saying its policies on renewable energy credits are bankrupting the oil refinery business and destroying small and midsized oil refiners. And now his activism looks like it will pay off. Yesterday we got an appointee to run the EPA that has been vetted by Icahn (as he said in an interview today) — it’s an incoming EPA chief that was suing the EPA in his role as Oklahoma attorney general. Safe to assume he’ll be friendly to energy, which will be friendly to Icahn’s portfolio.
Icahn’s publicly traded holdings company is already up 28% from election day (just one month ago). But it remains 56% off of the 2013 highs. This is the portfolio of an investor (Icahn) with the best track record in history (30% annualized for almost 50 years). IEP might be one of the best buys in the market.
We have three Icahn owned stocks in our Billionaire’s Portfolio. Follow me and look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up more than 27% this year. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
As we’ve discussed the Trump administration has been very good for the broad stock market. It’s been even better for certain industries, and certain stocks that have been drawn into the periphery of the administration.
Goldman Sachs has been well represented in the auditions for cabinet members. And now we have an incoming Treasury Secretary with a Wall Street background as a partner at Goldman. That stock is up 27% since November 8th.
Today, the President-elect met with the Japanese billionaire investor Masayoshi Son. Over the past 35 years, Son has built one the largest and most powerful technology conglomerates in the world, a company called Softbank. He told the new incoming President that he planned to invest $50 billion into U.S. companies behind Trump’s economic plan.
So what does Son own that could benefit from a good relationship with the Trump administration? He owns the wireless carrier Sprint. In fact, he (Softbank) owns more than 80% of the company. No coincidence, Sprint was up 4% today on the news of his successful meeting.
Son is likely posturing put a Sprint/T-Nobile merger back on the table. Sprint walked away from efforts to acquire T-Mobile in 2014 after it was clear it would be blocked under increased antitrust enforcement under the Obama administration.
The combined entity would slingshot a “Sprint/T-Mobile” into a three way horse race for first place in the wireless carrier industry. Though the market is only valuing the combined entity at 15%, rather than one-third of the market. That makes both stocks potential doubles. We own Sprint in our Billionaire’s Portfolio.
Source: Statista.com
The Obama administration had its winners and losers (among the winners, outright funding to Tesla, Solarcity … partnerships with Uber and Facebook). Trump will as well. Keeping an eye on who walks into Trump Tower seems to be a good clue.
Follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up more than 24% this year. Join me here.
On Friday, we looked at five key charts that showed the technical breakout in stocks, interest rates, the dollar and crude oil.
All of these longer term charts argue for much higher levels to come. Remember, the big event remaining for the year is the December 14th Fed meeting. A rate hike won’t move the needle. It’s well expected at this stage. But the projections on the path of interest rates that they will release, following the meeting, will be important. As I said Friday, “as long as Yellen and company don’t panic, overestimate the inflation outlook and telegraph a more aggressive rate path next year, the year should end on a very positive note.”
On that note, today we had a number of Fed members out chattering about rates and where things are headed. Did they start building expectations for a more aggressive rate path in 2017, because of the Trump effect? Or, did they stick to the new strategy of promoting a view that underestimates the outlook for the economy and, therefore, the rate path (a strategy that was suggested by former Fed Chair Bernanke)?
The former is what Bernanke criticized the Fed as doing late last year, which he argued was an impediment to growth, as people took the cue and started positioning for a rate environment that would choke off the recovery. The latter is what he suggested they should move to (and have moved to), sending an ultra accommodative signal, and a willingness to be behind the curve on inflation — letting the economy run hot for a while (i.e. they won’t impede the progress of recovery by tightening money).
So how did the Fed speakers today weigh in, relative to this positioning?
First, it should be said that Bernanke also recently criticized the Fed for the cacophony of chatter from Fed members between meetings. He said it was confusing and disruptive to the overall Fed communications.
So we had three speakers today. New York Fed President William Dudley spoke in New York, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard spoke in Phoenix, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks in Chicago. Did they have a game plan today to promote a more consistent message, or was it a more of the disruptive noise we’ve heard in the past?
Fortunately, they were on message. Only Dudley and Bullard are voting members. Both had comments today that spanned from cautious to outright dovish. Dudley, the Vice Chair, wasn’t taking a proactive view on the impact of fiscal stimulus — he promoted a wait and see view, while keeping the tone cautionary. Bullard, a Fed member that is often swaying with the wind, said he envisioned ONE rate hike through 2019. That would mean, one in December, and done until 2019. That’s an amazing statement, and one that completely (and purposely) ignores any influence of what may come from the new pro-growth policies.
This is all good news for stocks and the momentum in markets. The Fed seems to be disciplined in its strategy to stay out of the way of the positive momentum that has developed. And that only helps their cause. With that, if today’s chatter is a guide, we should see a very modest view in the economic projections that will come on December 14th. That should keep the stock market on track for a strong close into the end of the year.
We may be entering an incredible era for investing. An opportunity for average investors to make up ground on the meager wealth creation and retirement savings opportunities of the past decade, or more. For help, follow me in my Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up 24% year to date. That’s more than three times the performance of the broader stock market. Join me here.
Over the past year we’ve talked a lot about the oil price bust and the threat it represented to the global economy. And in past months, we’ve talked about the approaching OPEC meeting, where they had telegraphed a production cut – the first in eight years. Still, not many were buying it.
Remember, it was OPEC created the oil price crash that started in November of 2014 when the Saudis refused a production cut. Ultimately the price of oil fell to $26 a barrel (this past February).
Their strategy: Kill off the emerging threat of the U.S. shale industry by forcing prices well below where they could produce profitably. To an extent it worked. More than 100 small oil related companies in the U.S. filed for bankruptcy over the past two years.
But it soon became evident that cheap oil threatened, not just the U.S. shale industry (which also turned out to threaten the global financial system and global economy), but it threatened the solvency of OPEC member countries (the proverbial shot in the foot).
The big fish, the Saudis, have lost significant revenue from the self-induced oil price plunge, starting the clock on an economic time bomb. They derive about 80% of their revenue from oil. With that, they’ve run up their budget deficit to more than 15% of GDP in the oil bust environment. For context, Greece, the well known walking dead member of the euro zone was running a budget deficit of 15% at worst levels back in 2009.
So OPEC members need (have to have) higher oil prices. Time is working against them. With that, they followed through with a cut today. Remember, back in the 80s when OPEC merely hinted at a production cut, oil jumped 50% in 24 hours. Today it was up as much as 10% on the news. But this cut should put a floor under oil in the mid $40s, and lead to $60-$70 oil next year.
All of this said, given the increase in supply from bringing Iran production back online, and from increasing U.S. supply, no one should be cheering more for the pro-growth Trump economy to put a fire under demand than OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia.
Now, as we discussed this week, oil has been a huge drag on global inflation. With that, the catalyst of a first OPEC cut in eight years driving oil prices higher could put the Fed and other global central banks in a very different position next year.
Consider where the world was just months ago, with downside risks reverting back to the depths of the economic crisis. Now we have reason to believe oil could be significantly higher next year. That alone will run inflation significantly hotter (flipping the switch on the inflation outlook). Add to that, we have a pro-growth government with a trillion dollar fiscal package and tax cuts entering the mix.
As I said yesterday, we may find that the Fed will tell us in December that they are planning to move rates more like four times next year, instead of two.
The market is already telling us that the inflation switch has been flipped. Just four months ago, the 10 year yield was trading 1.32%, at new record lows. And as of today, we have a 10-year at 2.40% — and that’s on about a 60 basis point runup since November 8th.
With that said, there has been a shot in the arm for sentiment over the past few weeks. That’s led to the bottoming in rates, bottoming in commodities and potential cheapening of valuations in stocks (given a higher growth outlook). As a whole, that all becomes self-reinforcing for the better growth outlook story.
And that reduces a lot of threats. But it creates a new threat: The threat of a collapse in bond prices, runaway in market interest rates.
But what could be the Fed’s best friend, to quell that threat? Trump’s new Treasury Secretary said today that he thinks they will see companies repatriate as much as $1 trillion. Much of that money will find a parking place in the biggest, most liquid market in the world: The U.S. Treasury market. That should support bonds, and keep the climb in interest rates tame.
We may be entering an incredible era for investing. An opportunity for average investors to make up ground on the meager wealth creation and retirement savings opportunities of the past decade, or more. For help, follow me in my Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up 24% year to date. That’s more than three times the performance of the broader stock market. Join me here.
Stocks hit new record highs again in the U.S. today. This continues the tear from the lows of election night. But if we ignore the wild swing of that night, in an illiquid market, stocks are only up a whopping 1.2% from the highs of last month — and just 8% for the year. That’s in line with the long term average annual return for the S&P 500.
And while yields have ripped higher since November 8th, we still have a 10 year yield of just 2.32%. Mortgages are under 4%. Car loans are still practically free money. That’s off of “world ending” type of levels, but very far from levels of an economy and markets that are running away (i.e. you haven’t missed the boat – far from it).
Despite this, we’re starting to see experts come out of the wood works telling us that the economy has been in great shape for a while. That’s what this is about – what’s with all the fuss? Not true.
Remember, it was just eight months ago that the world was edging toward the cliff again, as the oil price bust was threatening to unleash another global financial crisis. And that risk wasn’t emerging because the economy was in great shape. It was because the economy was incredibly fragile — fueled by the central banks ability to produce stability, which produced confidence, which produced some spending, hiring and investment, which produced meager growth. But given that global economic stability was completely predicated on central banks defending against shocks to the system, not on demand, that environment of stability was highly vulnerable.
Now, of course, we finally have policies and initiatives coming down the pike that will promote demand (not just stability). If have perspective on where markets stand, instead of how far they’ve come from the trough of election night, we’re sitting at levels that scream of opportunity as we head into a new pro-growth government.
When the economic crisis was in the early stages of unraveling, the most thorough study on past debt crises (by Reinhart and Rogoff) found that delevering periods (the time after the bust) took about as long as the leveraging period (the bubble building period before the bust). With that, it was thought that the deleveraging period would take about 10 years. History gave us the playbook, in hand, from very early on in the crisis.
With that in mind, the peak in the housing market was June of 2006. That would put 10 years at this past June. The first real event, in the unraveling of it all, was the bust of two hedge funds at Bear Stearns in mid 2007. That would put the 10 year mark at seven months out or so.
That argues that we’re not in the late stages of an economic growth cycle that was just unfortunately weak (as some say), but that we should just be entering a new growth phase and turning the final page on the debt crisis. And that would argue that asset prices are not just very cheap now, but will be for quite some time as a decade long (or two) prosperity gap closes.
Follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up 20% this year. That’s almost 3 times the performance of the broader stock market. Join me here.
In my November 2 note (here), I talked about three big changes this year that have been underemphasized by Wall Street and the financial media, but have changed the outlook for the global economy and global markets.
Among them was Japan’s latest policy move, which licensed them to do unlimited QE.
In September they announced that they would peg the Japanese 10 year government bond yield at ZERO. At that time, rates were deeply into negative territory. In that respect, it was actually a removal of monetary stimulus in the near term — the opposite of the what the market was hoping for, though few seemed to understand the concept.
I talked about it earlier this month as an opportunity for the BOJ to do unlimited QE, and in a way that would allow them to keep stimulating the economy even as growth and inflation started moving well in their direction.
With this in mind, the Trump effect has sent U.S. yields on a tear higher. That move has served to pull global interest rates higher too — and that includes Japanese rates.
You can see in this chart, the 10 year in Japan is now positive, as of this week.
With this, the BOJ came in this week and made it known that they were a buyer of Japanese government bonds, in an unlimited amount (i.e. they are willing to buy however much necessary to push yields back down to zero).
Though the market seems to be a little confused by this, certainly the media is. This is a big deal. I talked about this in my daily note the day after the BOJ’s move in September. And the Fed’s Bernanke even posted his opinion/interpretation of the move. Still, not many woke up to it.
What’s happening now is the materialization of the major stimulative policy they launched in September. This has green lighted the short yen trade/long Japanese equity trade again. It should drive another massive devaluation of the yen, and a huge runup in Japanese stocks (which I don’t think ends until it sees the all-time highs of ’89 — much, much higher).
Follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up 20% this year. That’s almost 3 times the performance of the broader stock market. Join me here.
As the Trump rally continues across U.S. stocks, the dollar, interest rates and commodities, there are some related stories unfolding in other key markets I want to discuss today.
The Fed: Janet Yellen was on Capitol Hill today talking to Congress. As suspected, she continues to build expectations for a December rate hike (which is nearly 100% priced in now in the markets). And she did admit that the economic policy plans of the Trump administration could alter their views on inflation — but only “as it (policy) comes.” I think it’s safe to say the Fed will be moving rates up at a quicker pace than the thought just a month ago. But also remember, from Bernanke’s suggestion in August, Yellen has said that she thinks it’s best to be behind the curve a bit on inflation — i.e. let the economy run hotter than they would normally allow to ensure the economic rut is left in the rear view mirror. That Fed viewpoint should support the momentum of a big spending package.
The euro: The euro has been falling sharply since the Trump win, for two reasons. First, the dollar has been broadly strong, which on a relative basis makes the euro weaker (in dollar terms). Secondly, the vote for change in the America (like in the UK and in Greece, last year) is a threat to the euro zone, the European Union and the euro currency. With that, we have a referendum in Italy coming December 4th, and an election in France next year, that could follow the theme of the past year — voting against the establishment. That vote could re-start the clock on the end of the euro experiment. And that would be very dangerous for the global financial system and the global economy. The government bond markets would be where the threat materializes in the event of more political instability in Europe, but we’ve already seen some of this movie before. And that’s why the ECB came to the rescue in 2012 and vowed to do whatever it takes to save the euro (i.e. they threatened to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds in troubled countries to keep interest rates in check and therefore those countries solvent). With that, the events ahead are less unpredictable than some may think.
The Chinese yuan: As we know, China’s currency is high on the priority list of the Trump administrations agenda. The Chinese have continued to methodically weaken their currency following the U.S. elections, moving it lower 10 consecutive days to an eight year low. This has been the trend of the past two years, aggressively reversing course on the nine years of concessions they’ve made. This looks like it sets up for a showdown with the Trump administration, but as history shows, they tend to take their opportunities, weakening now, so they can strengthen it later heading into discussions with a new U.S. government. Still, in the near term, a weaker yuan looked like a positive influence for Chinese stocks just months ago — now it looks more threatening, given the geopolitical risks of trade tensions.
Follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up 20% this year. That’s almost 3 times the performance of the broader stock market. Join me here.
