This week will be a huge week for markets. Stocks continue to hover around record highs. Rates (the 10 year yield) sit at the highest level in three years.
This snapshot alone suggests a world that continues to believe that pro-growth policies “trump” all of the risks ahead. At the very least, it’s pricing in a world without disruptions. But disruptions look likely.
Here’s a look at stocks as we enter the week. Still in a 45 degree uptrend since the election.
But if we take a longer term look, this trendline looks pretty vulnerable to any surprise.
Let’s take a look at the disruptions risks:
There was a chance that the official execution of Brexit may have come as soon as tomorrow — the UK leaving the European Union by triggering Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. That looks unlikely now, but could come in the coming weeks. To this point the Bank of England has done a good job of responding and promoting stability which has led to financial markets pricing in an optimistic outcome.
We have the Fed on Wednesday. They will hike for the third time in the post-financial crisis era. We don’t know at what point higher interest rates, in this environment, might choke off growth that is coming from the fiscal side.
This next chart looks like rates might run to 3% on the 10-year. That would do a number on housing, IF tax reform and an infrastructure spend out of the White House come later than originally anticipated (which is the way it looks).
We also have the Bank of Japan and Bank of England meeting on rates this week. Let’s hope they have a very boring, staying the path, message. That would mean extremely stimulative policies for the foreseeable future 1) in the case of Japan, to continue to promote global liquidity and anchor global yields, and 2) in the case of the UK, to continue to promote stability in the face of uncertainty surrounding Brexit.
Keep this in mind: The Bank of Japan’s big QE launch in 2013 is a huge reason the Fed was able to end QE in the first place, and start its path of normalization. The BOJ launched in April of 2013. Bernanke telegraphed “tapering” a month later. The Fed officially ended tapering on October 29, 2014. Stocks fell 10% into that official ending of Fed QE. On October 31, 2014 (two days later), the BOJ surprised the world with bigger, bolder QE (a QE2). Stocks rallied.
Finally, to end the week, we have a G-20 finance ministers meeting. This is where all of the trade and dollar rhetoric from the new administration will be front and center. So the news/event outlook looks like some waves should be ahead. But any dip in stocks would be a great buying opportunity.
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With today marking eight years from the bottom in the stock market, let’s talk about why it bottomed. And then take look at the run up in stocks since 2008.
First, why did stocks (the S&P 500) turn at 666 on March 9th, 2009?
Policymakers were scrambling to stop the bleeding in banks, trying to unfreeze global credit, and stop the dominos from continuing to fall.
The Fed had already launched a program a few months earlier to buy up mortgage back securities, to push down mortgage rates and stop the implosion in housing. Global central banks had already slashed interest rates in attempt to stimulate the economy. The U.S. had announced a $787 fiscal stimulus package a few weeks earlier. And then finance ministers and central bankers from the top 20 countries in the world met in London on March 14.
Here’s what they said in the opening of their communique: “We have taken decisive, coordinated and comprehensive action to boost demand and jobs, and are prepared to take whatever action is necessary until growth is restored.”
The key words here are “coordinated” and “whatever action is necessary.”
The Fed met four days later and rolled out bigger purchases of mortgages, and for the first time announced they would be buying government debt. This was full bore QE. And it was with the full support of global counterparts, which later followed that lead.
What wasn’t known to that point, was to what extent policymakers were willing to intervene to avert disaster. This statement by G20 finance heads and the action by the Fed let it be known that all options are on the table (devaluation, monetization, etc) — and they were all-in and all together in the fight to stave off an apocalypse. With that, the asset reflation period started. And it started with QE.
With that said, let’s take a look at the chart on stocks and the impact QE has had along the way.
The baton has now been passed to fiscal stimulus in the U.S. But we have the benefit of QE still full bore in Europe and Japan. The question is, can that continue to anchor interest rates in the U.S. and keep that variable from stifling the impact of growth policies.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in a portfolio of deep value stocks that all have the potential to do multiples of what broader stocks do — all stocks owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and we’ll send you our recently recorded portfolio review that steps through every stock in our portfolio, and the opportunities in each.
One of the best investors on the planet, David Tepper, was on CNBC this morning. Let’s talk about how he sees the world and how he is positioned.
What I appreciate about Tepper: He’s a common sense guy.
And his common sense view of the world happens to be in alignment with the view and themes we discuss here every day. So he agrees with me – another thing I appreciate about him.
As you know, Wall Street and the media are always good at overcomplicating the investment environment with their day-to-day hyper analysis. Because of that, they tend to forge a path that moves further and further away from the simple realities of the big picture. That’s actually good. Because it creates opportunity for those that can avoid those distractions.
Right now, as we’ve discussed, the big picture is straight forward. We have a President that wants deregulation, tax cuts and a big infrastructure spend. And we have a Congress in place that can approve it. And this all comes at a time when the world has been in a decade long economic slog following the global financial crisis – in desperate need of growth. With that, we have a Fed that still has rates at very, very low levels. And the ECB and BOJ are still priming the pump with QE.
This is precisely Tepper’s view. He says the bowl is still full, i.e. the stimulus from the monetary policy side is still full, and now we get stimulus coming in from the fiscal side. What more could you ask for (my words) to pump up growth and asset prices, which will likely spill over into a pop in global growth. Still, people are underestimating it. And as he says, the Fed is underestimating it.
Are there risks? Yes. But the probability of growth, with the above in mind, well outweighs the probable downside scenarios. What about execution risk? Even if tax reform and infrastructure are slow to come, Tepper says deregulation is a done deal. It drives earnings and “animal spirits.”
He likes stocks. He likes European stocks. And I think he really likes Japanese stocks, but he stopped short of talking about it (my deduction).
Among the risks: Inflation picking up too fast, which would require the Fed to move faster, which could choke off growth (undo or neutralize fiscal stimulus).
This is why, among other reasons, Tepper’s favorite trade is short bonds. – i.e. higher interest rates. If he’s right and economic growth has a big pop, he wins. If the risk of hotter inflation materializes and rates move faster, he wins.
For context, this is the guy that literally changed global investing sentiment in late 2010 when he sat in front of a camera on CNBC, in a rare high profile TV interview (maybe first), when investing sentiment was all but destroyed by the global financial crisis and the various landmines that kept popping up. Tepper said in a very confident voice that the Fed, by telegraphing a second round of QE, had just given us all a free put on stocks (i.e. the Fed is protected the downside, it’s a greenlight to buy stocks). For all of the market jockeys that were constantly focusing on the many problems in the world, that commentary from Tepper, for some reason, woke them up.
For perspective on Tepper: Here’s a guy that is probably the best investor in the modern era. He’s returned between 35%-40% annualized (before fees) for more than 20 years. He made $7.5 billion in 2009 betting on financial stocks that most people thought were going bankrupt. And he was telling everyone that what the Fed is doing will make ‘everything’ go up. It sparked, in 2010, what is known as the “Tepper rally” in stocks.
When Tepper speaks it’s often smart to listen. And he likes the Trump effect!
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in a portfolio of deep value stocks that all have the potential to do multiples of what broader stocks do — all stocks owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and we’ll send you our recently recorded portfolio review that steps through every stock in our portfolio, and the opportunities in each.
It’s jobs week. Thanks to 1) Trump’s reminder to the country in his address to Congress last week that big economic stimulus was coming, and 2) Yellen’s remarks last week that all but promised a rate hike this month, the market is about as close to fully pricing in a rate hike as possible for March 15.
The last data point for everyone to obsess about going into next week’s Fed meeting will be this Friday’s jobs report.
But as I’ve said for quite a while, the jobs data has been good enough in the Fed’s eyes for quite some time. Nonetheless, they’ve had many, many balks along the path of normalizing rates over the past couple of years. Here’s a look at a chart of the benchmark payrolls data we’ll be seeing Friday.
You can see in this chart, the twelve-month moving average is 195k. The three-month moving average is 182k. The six-month moving average is 182k. This is all fairly consistent with historical/pre-crisis levels.
So the numbers have been solid for quite some time, even meeting and exceeding the Fed’s targets, especially when it comes to the unemployment rate (4.7% last). However, when the Fed’s targets have been met, the Fed has moved the goal posts. When those goal posts were then exceeded, the Fed found new excuses to justify their decisions to avoid the path of aggressive hikes/normalization of rates that they had guided.
Among those excuses: When jobs were trending at 200k and unemployment breached 5%, the Fed started to acknowledge underemployment. Then the lack of wage growth became the focus. Then it was macro issues. To name a few: It’s been soft Chinese economic data, a Chinese currency move, Russian geopolitical tensions, collapsing oil prices, Brexit and weak productivity.
And just prior to the election last year, the Fed became, confusingly, less optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook, which was the justification to ratchet down the aggressive projected path for rates.
I suspected last year, when they did this that they were making a strategic pivot, to set expectations for a much easier path for rates, in hopes to keep people spending, borrowing and investing — instead of promoting a tighter path, which proved for the better part of two years (prior to the election) to create the opposite effect.
Remember, Bernanke (the former Fed Chair) even wrote a public piece on this last August, criticizing the Fed for being too optimistic in its projections for the path of interest rates. By showing the market/the world an expectation that rates will be dramatically higher in the coming months, quarters and years, Bernanke argued in his post that this “guidance” has had the opposite of the desired effect – it’s softened the economy.
A month later, in September, in Yellen’s post-FOMC press conference, she said this in response to why they didn’t raise rates: “the decision not to raise rates today and to wait for some further evidence that we’re continuing on this course is largely based on the judgment that we’re not seeing evidence that the economy is overheating.” Safe to argue, the economy isn’t overheating, still.
Again, as I said on Friday, the only difference between now and then, is the prospects of major fiscal stimulus, which is precisely what the Fed claims to be ignoring/leaving out of their forecasts – a believe it when I see it approach, allegedly.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in a portfolio of deep value stocks that all have the potential to do multiples of what broader stocks do — all stocks owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and we’ll send you our recently recorded portfolio review that steps through every stock in our portfolio, and the opportunities in each.
We closed last Friday with another new weekly record high on the Dow. But we closed with an all-time record low in the German 2-year bund. That development in Europe, weighed on U.S. yields, pulling yields down here from 2.5 to 2.31%.
So we had this divergence between what was happening in stocks and what the bond market was communicating. The bond market was telling us there was growing concern about danger to European economic stability, and therefore global economic stability, in the upcoming French elections. Stocks were telling us, growth is king – the ultimate problem solver, and growth is coming.
With that, Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday night became a major sentiment gauge/the arbiter on which would win out, based on the perception of whether or not the Trump administration could execute on its economic plans.
The vote was “affirmative” for the growth story. Stocks gapped higher to new record highs (closing this week at another weekly record high). And the bond market turned on a dime, following Trump on Tuesday night, and have been climbing since. German yields have bounced. And U.S. yields have bounced. That leads us up to today’s speech from Janet Yellen.
There has been a tremendous shift in the past week in the expectations for a March rate hike. It’s gone from a 27% chance of a March 15 rate hike being priced in last Friday. By Wednesday morning, after Trump’s speech, it was 70%! And we close out the week with an 80% chance of a hike this month.
That additional bump came today on a speech and Q&A session from Janet Yellen today. Here’s the expectations bar she chose to set: She said the Fed would likely be moving faster than it had in 2015 and 2016. It should be said that they only hiked once in 2015 and 2016 because their forecasts proved grossly overly optimistic and they had to adjust on the fly. So they’ve already told us, back in December, that they think it will be three times this year. That’s faster than one. And today she reiterated that today.
And today she also said that if the data continued to improve as they forecast, they can hike this month.
Now, they have a post-FOMC meeting press conference scheduled FOUR more times this year (March, June, September and December). Despite what they suggest, that they could hike at any meeting and just call an impromptu press conference, they would be crazy to introduce such a surprise in markets. Stability and confidence work in their favor. Surprises threaten stability and confidence.
So if they indeed hike three times, they have a narrow window. And if they think they need to hike faster, because perhaps fiscal policy accelerates growth and inflation, they may need to keep the December meeting open for a fourth hike.
But, Yellen and company have recently gone out of their way to tell us that they are not even factoring in fiscal stimulus and deregulation (growth policies) into their view on the economy. They’ll believe when they see it and take that information as it comes, which puts them in an even more vulnerable position to needing more tightening this year, if you take them at their word and trust their forecasting abilities.
So with that in mind, why has the Fed become so bulled up on interest rate picture since December? Is it because the inflation and jobs data has gotten that much better? The unemployment rate has been below 6% (the Fed’s original target) since September of 2014 and below 5% for the past year. And the core inflation rate has been above 2% since November of 2015, which includes all year last year, when the Fed was reversing course on its promises for a big tightening year. That’s near normal employment in the Fed’s eyes and above its target for inflation – a clear signal to normalize interest rates. But they’ve barely budged.
Why? Because last year the global economy looked vulnerable. With that, they threw every other guiding data point out the window and went back to playing defense. And as recent as August of last year, the Fed messaging was quite dovish. What’s the biggest difference between now and then? The prospects of major fiscal stimulus – precisely what they say they are leaving out of their forecasts for now.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in a portfolio of deep value stocks that all have the potential to do multiples of what broader stocks do — all stocks owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and we’ll send you our recently recorded portfolio review that steps through every stock in our portfolio, and the opportunities in each.
Today we heard from Janet Yellen in the first part of her semi-annual testimony to Congress. She gave prepared remarks to the Senate today and took questions. Tomorrow it will be the House. The prepared statement will be the same, with maybe a few different questions.
Remember, just four months ago, the most important actor in the global economy was the Fed. Central banks were in control (as they have been for the better part of 10 years), with the Fed leading the way.
The Fed was the ultimate puppet master. By keeping rates ultra-low and standing ready to act against anything that might destabilize the global economy and threaten to kill the dangerously slow recovery, they (along with the help other major central banks) restored confidence, and created the stability and incentives to drive hiring, investing and spending — which created economic recovery.
When Greece bubbled up again, when oil threatened to shake the financial system, when China’s slowdown created uncertainty, central banks were quick to step in with more easing, bigger QE, promises of low rates for a very long time, etc.. And in some cases, they outright intervened, like when the ECB averted disaster in Italy and Spain by promising to buy unlimited amounts of Italian and Spanish government bonds to stop speculators from inciting a bond market collapse and a collapse of the euro and European Union.
This dynamic of central bank activism has changed. The Fed, and central bank intervention in general, is no longer the only game in town. We have fiscal stimulus coming and structural change underway that has the chance to finally mend the decade long slump of the global economy. That’s why today’s speech by the Fed Chair was no longer the biggest event of the week — not even the day.
The scripts has flipped. Where the Fed had been driver of recovery, they now have become the threat to recovery. So the interest in Fedwatching today is only to the extent that they may screw things up.
Moving too fast on interest rate hikes has the potential weaken or even undo the gains that stand to come from the pro-growth policies efforts from the new administration.
Remember, the Fed told us in December that they projected THREE hikes this year. But keep in mind, they projected FOUR in December of 2015, for 2016, and we only got one. And that was only AFTER the election, and the swing in sentiment regarding the prospects of pro-growth policies.
Remember, Bernanke himself has criticized the Fed for stalling momentum in the recovery by showing too much tightening (i.e. over optimism) in their forecasts. And he argued that the Fed should give the economy some room to run and sustain momentum, fighting inflation from behind.
On that note, the Fed has now witnessed the bumpy path that the new administration is dealing with, and will be traveling, in implementing policy. I would think they would be less aggressive now in their view on rate hikes UNTIL they see evidence of policy execution, and a lot more evidence in the data. Let’s hope that’s the case.
For help building a high potential portfolio for 2017, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2016. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that the world was sitting on every word uttered by a central banker. Those days are likely over — at least to the extreme extent of the past decade. For now, Trump has supplanted central bankers as the most powerful policy maker in the world.
Still, the Fed will meet following their rate hike last month, the second in their very slow hiking cycle – 1/4 point hike twelve months apart. They’ll do nothing this week, but the data tends to be going as desired by the Fed, and other major central banks for that matter (aside from Japan) — meaning, inflation has recovered and is nearing the target zone.
Remember, this time last year, the world was staring down the barrel of DE-flation again. Inflation, central bankers have tools to combat. Deflation is far more difficult, and far less predictable. It can spiral and grind economies to a halt. When consumers are convinced prices will be cheaper in the future, they wait. When they wait, economic activity stalls. With that, deflation tends to create more deflation. The fear of that scenario, and the potential of an irreversible spiral, is why central bankers were cutting rates to negative territory last year.
Where was the imminent deflationary threat coming from? Slow economic activity, but mostly a crash in oil prices.
Central bankers have the tendency to change the rules of the game when it suits them. When inflation is running hot, they may hold off on tightening money by pointing to hot “food and energy” prices. These are temporary influences, as they say. Interestingly, they are much more aggressive, though, when oil prices are creating a deflationary threat – as they did last year.
With that, oil prices have doubled from the lows of last February. So it shouldn’t be too surprising that inflation numbers are rising, and getting close to the desired targets (around 2%) of the central bankers of the U.S., Europe and England.
So will we see a turning point for global central banks (not just the Fed) in the months ahead? The world has already been pricing in the likelihood that the pro-growth policies coming from the Trump administration will take the burden of manufacturing economic recovery off of the central banks.
But we may find that “transitory oil prices” will be the excuse for more inaction by the Fed, and continued QE from the ECB and BOE in the months ahead, which may result in a slower pace of rate hikes than both the Fed projected in December and the market has been anticipating.
Higher rates at this stage: 1) creates problems for the housing recovery, 2) promotes more capital flight from emerging markets like China (which means more dollar strength),and 3) threatens to neutralize the fiscal stimulus and reform coming down the pike for the U.S.
In December, the Fed dialed back their talk about letting the economy run hot (i.e. staying well behind the curve on inflation to make sure recovery is robust). We’ll see if they switch gears again and start explaining away the inflation numbers to oil prices.
For help building a high potential portfolio for 2017, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2016. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Happy New Year! We’re off to what will be a very exciting year for markets and the economy. And make no mistake, there will be profound differences in the world this year, with the inauguration of a new, pro-growth U.S. President, at a time where the world desperately needs growth.
I’ve talked a lot about the “Trump effect.” Clearly, when you come in slashing the corporate tax rate, creating incentives for trillions of dollars of capital to come home, and eliminating overhead and hurdles associated with regulation, you’ll get hiring, you’ll get spending, you’ll get investment and you’ll get growth.
But there’s more to it. Ray Dalio, one of the richest, best and brightest investors in the world has said, there is a clear shift in the environment, “from one that makes profit makers villains with limited power, to one that makes them heroes with significant power.”
The latter has been diminished over the past 10 years.
Clearly, we entered the past decade in an economic and structural mess. But while monetary policy makers were doing everything in their power (and then some) to avert the apocalypse and, later, fuel a recovery, it was being undone by law makers and a lack of fiscal support, swinging the pendulum too far in the direction of punishment and scapegoating.
With that, despite the continued wealth creation of the 1% over the past decade, and the widening of the inequality gap, the power of the wealth creators has been diminished in the crisis period – certainly, the public’s favor toward the rich has diminished. And most importantly, the incentives for creating value and creating wealth have been diminished.
With all of the nuances of change that are coming, and the many opinions on what it all means, that statement by billionaire Ray Dalio might be the most simple and clear point made.
Another good point that has been made by Dalio, as he’s reflected on the “Trump effect.” It’s the element that economists and analysts can’t predict, and can’t quantify. The prospects of the return of “animal spirits.” This is what has been destroyed over the past decade, driven primarily by the fear of indebtedness (which is typical of a debt crisis) and mis-trust of the system.
All along the way, throughout the recovery period, and throughout a tripling of the stock market off of the bottom, people have continually been waiting for another shoe to drop. The breaking of this emotional mindset appears to finally be underway. And that gives way to a return of animal spirits, which haven’t been calibrated in all of the forecasts for 2017 and beyond.
For help building a high potential portfolio, follow me in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 in 2017. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
Over the past two days, we’ve looked back at a couple of the six marketthemes I expected to dominate in 2016. Back in January, I said “central banks are in control, be long stocks.” That was theme number one. And I thought “China’s currency manipulation would come home to roost.” That was theme number six. Both have clearly materialized. As for China, its currency manipulation has become center stage with the incoming President Trump.
Among the six themes we discussed back in January, I also expected the dollar to continue on a big run. I said…
“The dollar is in a long term bull cycle—Be Long Dollars
When we look back at the long term cycles of the dollar over the past 40 years, we see five distinct cycles for the dollar. And these cycles have lasted, on average, about seven years. The most recent cycle is a bull cycle, started in March 2008, yet has underperformed the average of the past six cycles. While the bull cycle appears to be long–in–the–tooth, in terms of duration, the fundamentals for dollar strength have just recently swung massively in favor of the dollar. We have an historic divergence in the monetary policy path of the U.S. relative to Europe and Japan—a very rare occurrence to have the Fed going one direction (toward raising rates) and two major economic powers going the opposite direction, aggressively.
This huge monetary policy divergence dynamic creates the potential for a sharp extension in the dollar over the coming months.”
The dollar has indeed been strong, but only after a correction earlier in the year. In the past week, the dollar index has reached a 14–year high.
With the Fed projecting three hikes next year and Europe and Japan still going the opposite direction (full bore QE), the dollar trend doesn’t look like it will slow anytime soon. And despite what many are warning about what a stronger dollar might do to growth, a strong dollar tends to accompanystrong growth historically (and it doesn’t kill it). On the other hand, it should be fuel for the rest of the world, as cheaper foreign currencies give the weaker global economies a chance to export their way out of an economic rut.
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The last big market event of the year will be Wednesday, when the Fed decides on rates.
As we’ve discussed, from the bottom in rates earlier this year, the interest rate market has had an enormous move. That has a lot of people worried about 1) a tightening that has already taken place in the credit markets, and 2) the potential drag it may have on what has been an improving recovery. But remember, we headed into the Fed’s first post-crisis rate hike, last December, with the 10 year yield trading at 2.25%.
And while rates have since done a nearly 100 basis point round trip, we’ll head into this week’s meeting with the 10 year trading around 2.50%. With that, the market has simply priced-in the rate hike this week, and importantly, is sending the message that the economy can handle it.
However, what has been the risk, going into this meeting, is the potential for the Fed to overreact on the interest rate outlook in response to the pro-growth inititiaves coming from the Trump administration. As we found last year, overly optimistic guidance from the Fed has a tightening effect in this environment. People began bracing ealier this year for a slower economy, if not a Fed induced recession, after the Fed projected four rate hikes this year.
The good news is, as we discussed last week, the two voting Fed members that were marched out in front of cameras last week, both toed the line of Yellen’s communications strategy, expressing caution and a slow and reactive path of rate hikes (no hint of a bubbling up of optimism). Again, that should keep the equities train moving in the positive direction through the year end.
In fact, both equities and oil look poised to take advantage of thin holiday markets. We may see a few more percentage points added to stocks before New Years, especially given the catalyst of the Trump tweet. And we may very well see a drift up to $60 in oil in a thin market.
We’ve had the first production cut from OPEC in eight years. And as of this weekend, we have an agreement by non-OPEC producers to cut oil production too. That gapped oil prices higher to open the week, and has confirmed a clean long term technical reversal pattern in oil.
This is a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern in oil. The break of the neckline today projects a move to $77. Some of the best and most informed oil traders in the world have been predicting that area for oil prices since this past summer.
Follow me and look over my shoulder as I follow the world’s best investors into their best stocks. Our portfolio is up more than 27% this year. You can join me here and get positioned for a big 2017.
It’s jobs week. Thanks to 1) Trump’s reminder to the country in his address to Congress last week that big economic stimulus was coming, and 2) Yellen’s remarks last week that all but promised a rate hike this month, the market is about as close to fully pricing in a rate hike as possible for March 15.
