4/2/20

Two months ago a short selling research firm alleged that there was misreporting of financials at the Chinese coffee giant, Luckin Coffee.  The company denied the report as unsubstantiated speculation with malicious intent.

This morning the company reported that it has suspended its COO and several other employees for misconduct related to fabricating transactions. These are precisely the claims that were made two months ago.

The stock was down more than 80% this morning.  

Who was the biggest loser?

It’s the top shareholder and angel investor in Luckin, the Chinese billionaire Lu Zhengyao.

Zhengyao is a serial entrepreneur. He founded the rental car company Car Inc. in 2007 and took it public in 2014 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.  His former COO is credited with founding the Starbucks competitor, Luckin Coffee in 2017.  In 2019, the company IPO’d on the Nasdaq. 

Zhengyao was the angel investor behind the company and holds 484 million shares.  At yesterday’s close, that stake was valued at over $12 billion.  At the lows this morning, it was valued at $2.2 billion.  Learn more about the stakes of billionaire investors here

 

 

May 19, 2017, 4:00pm EST               Invest Alongside Billionaires For $297/Qtr

Stocks continue to bounce back today.  But the technical breakdown of the Trump Trend on Wednesday

still looks intact.  As I said on Wednesday, this looks like a technical correction in stocks (even considering today’s bounce), not a fundamental crisis-driven sell-off.

​With that in mind, let’s take a look at the charts on key markets as we head into the weekend.

Here’s a look at the S&P 500 chart….

may20 spx

For technicians, this is a classic “break-comeback” … where the previous trendline support becomes resistance.  That means today’s highs were a great spot to sell against, as it bumped up against this trendline.

Very much like the chart above, the dollar had a big trend break on Wednesday, and then aggressively reversed Thursday, only to follow through on the trend break to end the week, closing on the lows.

may19 dollar

​On that note, the biggest contributor to the weakness in the dollar index, is the strength in the euro (next chart).

MAY19 EUR

The euro had everything including the kitchen sink thrown at it and it still could muster a run toward parity.  If it can’t go lower with an onslaught of events that kept threatening the existence of the euro, then any sign of that clearing, it will go higher.  With the French elections past, and optimism that U.S. growth initiatives will spur global growth (namely recovery in Europe), then the European Central Bank’s next move will likely be toward exit of QE and extraordinary monetary policies, not going deeper. With that, the euro looks like it can go much higher. That means a lower dollar. And it means, European stocks look like, maybe, the best buy in global stocks.

​A lower dollar should be good for gold.  As I’ve said, if Trump policies come to fruition, inflation could get a pop.  And that’s bullish for gold.  If Trump policies don’t come to fruition, the U.S. and global growth looks grim, as does the post-financial crisis recovery in general. That’s bullish for gold.

may19 gold

This big trendline in gold continues to look like a break is coming and higher gold prices are coming.

​With all of the above, the most important chart of the week is probably this one …

may19 yields

The 10 year yield has come all the way back to 2.20%.  The best reason to wish for a technical correction in stocks, is not to buy the dip (which is a good one), but so that the pressure comes out of the interest rate market (and off of the Fed).  The run in the stock market has clearly had an effect on Fed policy.  And the Fed has been walking rates up to a point that could choke off the existing economic recovery momentum and, worse, neutralize the impact of any fiscal stimulus to come.  Stable, low rates are key to get the full punch out of pro-growth policies, given the 10 year economic malaise we’re coming out of.​Invitation to my daily readers: Join my premium service members at Billionaire’s Portfolio to hear more of my big picture analysis and get my hand-selected, diverse portfolio of the most high potential stocks.