For the first time in a decade, the mood at the World Economic Forum in Davos was of optimism and opportunity. And Trump economic policies have had a lot to do with it.
That optimism has continued to drive markets higher this year: global stocks, global interest rates, global commodities – practically everything.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 7% on the year now — just a little less than a month into the New Year. And we’ve yet to see the real impact of tax incentives hit earnings and investment.
But, with the rising price of oil (now above $65), and improving consumption (on the better outlook), we will likely start seeing the inflation numbers tick up.
Now, what will be the catalyst to cap this very sharp run higher in stocks to start the year? It will probably be the first “hotter than expected” inflation number.
That would start the speculation that the Fed might need to move rates faster, and it might speed-up the exit talks from QE in Europe and Japan.
If the inflation outlook triggers a correction (which would be healthy), that would set the table for hotter earnings and hotter economic growth (coming down the pike) to ultimately drive the remainder of stock returns for the year.
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Yesterday we talked about the commodities bull market and the move underway in natural gas.
That all continued today, thanks in part to a comment by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, saying “obviously a weaker dollar is good for us.” When the dollar goes down, commodities prices tend to go up, since they are largely priced in dollars. As such, commodities were the top performers of the day – beginning to gain more momentum at multi-year highs.
But as we’ve seen from this chart, this recovery in commodities, which has dramatically lagged in the reflation trade, has a long way to go.
While the markets reacted as if Mnuchin, the Treasury Secretary, was talking down the dollar, the dollar is already in a long-term bear market cycle.
Remember, we looked at this chart (below) of the long-term dollar cycles back in June…
And I said, “if we mark the top of the most recent cycle in early January, this bull cycle has matched the longest cycle in duration (at 8.8 years) and comes in just shy of the long-term average performance of the five complete cycles. The most recent bull cycle added 47%. The average change over a long-term cycle has been 56%. This all argues that the dollar bull cycle is over. And a weaker dollar is ahead. That should go over very well with the Trump administration.”
The dollar is down about 8% since then and is breaking down technically now.
The dollar index is now down 14% in this new bear cycle. And these are the early innings. Based on the dollar cycle, it has a long way to go, and should last for another 5 to 7 years.
So, this dollar outlook is further support for the case for a big run in commodities we’ve been discussing. And as we observed yesterday, in the case of Chesapeake Energy (CHK), the second largest producer of natural gas in the country, the commodities stocks are still extremely underpriced if this scenario for commodities plays out.
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We talked last week about the prospects of a government shutdown and the little-to-no impact it would likely have on markets.
Here we are, with a shutdown as we open the week, and stocks are on to new record highs. Oil continues to trade at the highest levels of the past three years. And benchmark global interest rates continue to tick higher.
As we look ahead for the week, fourth quarter earnings will start rolling in this week. But the big events of the week will be the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank meetings. The Bank of Japan (the most important of the two) meets tonight.
Remember, we’ve talked about the disconnect we’ve had in government bond yields, relative to the recovering global economy and strong asset price growth (led by stocks). And despite five Fed rate hikes, bond yields haven’t been tracking the moves made by the Fed either. The U.S. 10-year government bond yield finished virtually unchanged for the year in 2017.
That’s because the monetary policy in Japan has been acting as an anchor to global interest rates. Their policy of pegging their 10-year yield at zero, has created an open ended, unlimited QE program in Japan. That means, as the forces on global interest rates pulls Japanese rates higher, away from zero, they will, and have been buying unlimited amounts of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to force the yield back toward zero. And they do it with freshly printed yen, which continues to prime the global economy with fresh liquidity.
So, as we’ve discussed, when the Bank of Japan finally signals a change to that policy, that’s when rates will finally move–and maybe very quickly.
If they choose, tonight, to signal an end of QE could be coming, even if it’s a year from now, the global interest rate picture will change immediately. With that in mind, here’s a look at the U.S. ten year yields going in …
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With a government shutdown over the weekend, today I want to revisit my note from last month (the last time we were facing a potential government shutdown) on the significance of the government debt load.
The debt load is an easy tool for politicians to use. And it’s never discussed in context. So the absolute number of $19 trillion is a guarantee to conjure up fear in people – fear that foreigners may dump our bonds, fear that we may have runaway inflation, fear that the economy is a house of cards. So that fear is used to gain negotiating leverage by whatever party is in a position of weakness. For the better part of the past decade, it was used by the Republican party to block policies. And now it’s being used by the Democratic party to try to block policies.
Now, the federal debt is a big number. But so is the size of our economy – both about $19 trillion. And while our debt/GDP has grown over the past decade, the increase in sovereign debtrelativetoGDP, has been a global phenomenon, following the financial crisis. Much of it has to do with the contraction in growth and the subsequent sluggish growth throughout the recovery (i.e. the GDP side of the ratio hasn’t been carrying its weight).
You can see in the chart below, the increasing debt situation isn’t specific to the U.S.
Now, we could choose to cut spending, suck it up, and pay down the debt. That’s called austerity. The choice of austerity in this environment, where the economy is fragile, and growth has been sluggish for the better part of ten years, would send the U.S. economy back into recession. Just ask Europe. After the depths of the financial crisis, they went the path of tax hikes and spending cuts, and by 2012 found themselves back in recession and a near deflationary spiral – they crushed the weak recovery that the European Central Banks (and global central banks) had spent, backstopped and/or guaranteed trillions of dollars to create.
The problem, in this post-financial crisis environment: if the major economies in the world sunk back into recession (especially the U.S.), it would certainly draw emerging markets (and the global economy, in general) back into recession. And following a long period of unprecedented emergency monetary policies, the global central banks would have limited-to-no ammunition to fight a deflationary spiral this time around.
Now, all of this is precisely why the outlook for the U.S. and global economy changed on election night in 2016. We now have an administration that is focused on growth, and an aligned Congress to overwhelm the political blocking. That means we truly have the opportunity to improve our relative debt-load through growth.
In the meantime, despite all of the talk, our ability to service the debt load is as strong as it’s been in forty years (as you can see in the chart below). And our ability to refinance debt is as strong as it’s been in sixty years.
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government shutdown, washington, wall street, economy
Last week we talked about the big adjustment we should expect to come in the inflation picture. With oil above $60 and looking like much higher prices are coming, and with corporate tax cuts set to fuel the first material growth in wages we’ve seen in a long time (if not three decades), this chart (inflation expectations) should start moving higher…
And with that, market interest rates should finally make a move. As we discussed last week, we will likely have a 10-year yield with a “3” in front of it before long.
Yields have already popped nearly a quarter point since the beginning of the year. But that’s just (finally) reflecting the December Fed rate hike. What hasn’t been reflected in rates, as it has in stocks, is the different growth and wage pressure outlook this year, thanks to the tax cut. Last year, people could argue it wasn’t going to happen. This year, it’s in motion. And the impact is already showing up. We should expect it to show in the inflation data, sooner rather than later.
With that, today we’re knocking on the door of a big breakout in rates (as you can see in the chart below) — which comes in at 2.65%…
As we’ve discussed, the anchor for the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield (and for global rates), even in the face of a more optimistic global economic growth outlook, has been Japan’s unlimited QE (driven by its policy to peg its 10-year at a yield of zero). On that note, last week, the former head of the central bank in India, Raghuram Rajan (a highly respected former central banker), said he thinks both Europe and Japan will exit emergency policies sooner than people think. That’s a positive statement on the global economy and a warning that global rates should finally start moving.
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Yesterday’s slide in stocks was all recovered today, despite the continued threat of a government shutdown. As we discussed yesterday, holding the government budget hostage to make gains on partisan demands hasn’t been enough to move the needle on the stock market the past three times we’ve seen it happen (2013, 1995-1996 and 1990).
Still, incredulously, the chatter about a “top” in stocks was heavy, yesterday afternoon and throughout this morning – given the 300 point move off of the top in the Dow (and accompanied by a sharp slide in bitcoin this morning).
The media and Wall Street experts must need to be reminded daily that we have a huge tax cut hitting this year, into extremely favorable economic conditions (low rates, cheap gas, record low unemployment, record high household net worth, record high consumer credit worthiness), with continued pro-business policies being executed, a major infrastructure spend pursued, and global growth expected to run as hot as we’ve seen since before the financial crisis.
With this in mind, Apple told us today that they plan to repatriate all of their offshore cash (about a quarter of a trillion dollars worth — thanks to a new, massive repatriation tax break), hire 20k people over the next five years and spend $30 billion in capex, to contribute $350 billion to the U.S. economy overall.
So, this is a direct result of incentives. And creating these incentives are the motivations behind the fiscal stimulus policies – all in an effort to achieve the behavior we’re seeing from Apple. Ultimately, it’s all about escaping the dangerously slow economic growth that was manufactured by central banks – so that the 10-year global economic slog doesn’t give way to a full-blown depression. So these incentives are working. Fiscal stimulus is working. And, as we’ve discussed, this should promote the big bounce back in growth that is typical of post-recession recoveries, but has been lacking in this post-financial crisis environment.
Still, people with the most influential voices continue to underestimate the outlook. The Fed is looking for just 2.5% U.S. GDP growth for the year (that’s likely less than what we’ll see for full year 2017). And Wall Street is looking for just 6% growth in stocks (according to this WSJ piece). The S&P 500 is already up 5%.
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Stocks reversed after a hot opening today. With a quiet data week ahead, the focus is on the prospects of a government shutdown.
If this sounds familiar to you, it should. Government debt is the, often played, go-to political football.
It was only last month that we were facing a similar threat. But with some policy-making tailwinds on one side of the aisle, the fight was politically less palatable in December. With that, Congress passed a temporary funding bill to kick the can to this month.
And just three months prior to that, in September, we had the same showdown, same result. The “government shutdown” card was being played aggressively until the hurricanes rolled through. From that point, politicians had major political risk in trying to fight hurricane aid. They kicked the can to December to approve that funding.
Now, the Democrats feel like they have some leverage, and their using the threat of a government shutdown to make gains on their policy agenda. So, how concerned should we be about a government shutdown (which could come on Friday)? Would it derail stocks?
If you recall, there was a lot of fuss and draconian warnings about an impending government shutdown back in 2013. The government was shutdown for 16 days. Stocks went up about 2%. Before that was 1995-1996 (stocks were flat), and 1990 (stocks were flat).
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Stocks have now opened the year up 4%. Global interest rates are on the move, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury trading above 2% for the first time since 2008. Oil is trading in the mid $60s. And base metals are trading toward the highest levels of the young, two-year bull market in commodities.
This all looks like a market that’s beginning to confirm a real, sustainable economic recovery – anticipating much better growth than what we’ve experienced over the past decade.
If that’s the case, we should expect a big adjustment coming in inflation readings. And with that, we should expect a big adjustment coming for global interest rates. We’ll likely have a 10-year yield with a “3” in front of it before long. And that will have a meaningful impact on key consumer borrowing rates (especially mortgages).
On the inflation note, we’ve talked this week about the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and the impact it may have on the path of central bank policies (most importantly, the speed at which QE may be coming to an end in Europe and Japan).
You can see in this chart, the very tight relationship of oil prices and inflation expectations.
Now remember, one of the best research-driven commodities investors (Leigh Goehring) thinks we may see triple-digit oil prices — this year! This has been a very contrarian viewpoint, but beginning to look more and more likely. He predicted a surge in global oil demand (which has happened) and a drawdown on supplies (which has been happening at “the fastest rate ever experienced”). He says, with the OPEC production cuts (from November 2016), we’re “traveling down the same road” as 2006, which drove oil prices to $147 barrel by 2008.
Bottom line, this is an inflationary tale. If we had to search for a market that might be telling us this story (i.e. inflation is finally leaving the station), the first place people might look is the price of gold. What has gold been doing? It has been on a tear. Gold is up 8.3% over the past month.
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Yesterday we talked about the move underway in interest rates. And we talked about the media’s (and Wall Street’s) desperate need to fit a story to the price.
On that note, they had been attributing rising U.S. rates to a vaguely attributed report from Bloomberg that suggested China might find our bonds less attractive. As I said, that type of speculation and chatter isn’t new (i.e. not news). Not only was it not news, China called it “fake news” today.
But as we discussed yesterday, rates are on the move for some very simple fundamental reasons. It’s the increasing probability that we will have the hottest U.S. and global growth in the post-crisis era, this year — underpinned by fiscal stimulus. And that’s inflationary. That’s bullish for interest rates (bearish for bonds).
So, again, money may just be in the early stages of moving OUT of bonds and cash, and BACK into stocks.
But, as we’ve also discussed, the real catalyst that will unshackle market interest rates from (still) near record low levels (globally) is the end of global QE.
And that will be determined by the central banks in Europe and Japan. On that note, the European Central Bank has already reduced its monthly asset purchases (announced last October), and they’ve announced a potential end date for QEin September of 2018. This morning, we heard the minutes from the most recent ECB meeting. And the overwhelming focus, was on stepping up the communication about the exit (the end of emergency policies). And don’t be surprised if European governments follow the lead of the U.S. with tax cuts to accompany the exit of QE.
In support of this outlook, the World Bank just stepped up growth expectations for the global economy for 2018 to 3.1%, saying 2018 is on track to be the first year since the financial crisis that the global economy will be operating at full capacity.
With the above in mind, you can see in this next chart just how disconnected the interest rate market is from the economic developments.
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We talked yesterday about the move underway in market interest rates. Today the yield on the 10-year touched 2.60%. That’s the highest levels since March of last year.
For perspective, let’s take a look at the chart …
Suddenly, rates are all the media can talk about. They specialize in trying to find a story to fit the price.
With that, many have been attributing rising U.S. rates to a vague report out of China. This is from Bloomberg: “Senior government officials in Beijing reviewing the nation’s foreign-exchange holdings have recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasurys, according to people familiar with the matter.”
There’s nothing new about this notion that China could find our bonds less attractive. It has been ongoing chatter for the past decade.
What’s driving interest rates is simple. It’s the increasing probability that this year we will have the hottest U.S. and global growth in the post-crisis era. And with that, commodities prices are rising.
And contributing to all of this (not in a small way), is fiscal stimulus, within which, a corporate tax cut should finally get wages moving higher. This is all inflationary. And this is all bullish for interest rates (bearish for bonds).
So, as I said last week, despite the quadrupling of the stock market, money may just be in the early stages of moving OUT of bonds and cash, and BACK into stocks.
With that, let’s take a look at a longer term picture of rates…
The chart above is a look at the nearly 40-year downtrend in interest rates. You could argue this downtrend broke in 2013, when the Fed said it would begin dialing down it’s QE program (the taper tantrum). But rates went on to make new lows, as the economy continued to flounder under the inability of central banking firepower to get the economy out of stall speed growth. Alternatively, you could argue this multi-decade downtrend in rates broke on election night (2016), when the idea of big, bold (do whatever it takes to get the economy moving) fiscal stimulus was introduced in the U.S.
The question is, if we do indeed get hotter growth, and we get a pick up in inflation, at what point will that formula stop feeding into hotter markets and hotter growth, and start choking off recovery through higher rates. I suspect it could be a couple of years away, given the ground the economy needs to make up for lost time.
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