At BillionairesPortfolio.com, we’ve studied the track records of hundreds of billionaire investors and billion-dollar hedge funds. And one man stands above the rest, as the best investor of all-time.
I’m sure most would consider Warren Buffett to be the best investor ever. But the numbers tell a different story. In fact, the greatest investor of all-time is billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn.
Incredibly, both Icahn and Buffett have been building their respective investment empires for close to five decades. And more incredibly, they remain at the top of their profession.
Icahn has, unequivocally, shown superior skill as an investor.
Consider this: Icahn has returned 31% annualized since 1968. That would turn every $1,000 invested with Icahn into $325 million today – an incredible number. Buffett, on the other hand, returned 19.5% annualized during virtually the same time period. Buffett’s growth rate over that length of time is indeed amazing too. But due to the power of compounding, the wealth creation of Buffett, from pure investment returns, pales in comparison to that of Icahn. Icahn’s investment skill has created $65 to every $1 created by Buffett.
So how has Icahn been able to outperform Warren Buffett (and the broad stock market) by so much and for so long?
Of course, Icahn is a dogged shareholder activist and often an agitator of corporate management. Key to his playbook is using power and influence to control his own destiny on stocks he invests in.
When we look strictly across the stocks in his portfolio, without necessarily the story-lines, we can see some portfolio traits that have made Carl Icahn the world’s greatest investor.
Trait #1: The media, mutual funds, CNBC, finance books — they all say having a high win rate is paramount to good investing. They tell you that the most important thing is being right. Like many widely accepted adages, it happens to be dead wrong. Billionaire iconic hedge fund investor, George Soros, says “it’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much money you lose when you’re wrong.”
Over the past 20 years, the stocks in Icahn’s portfolio have a win rate only a tad bit better than a coin toss. But he puts himself in position, so that when he wins, he has the chance to win big! This is the concept of asymmetrical risk to return, a concept often found in the wealth creation of billionaires. They like to invest in opportunities with limited risk and huge potential return.
Among Icahn’s stocks, his winners were almost twice that of his losers.
Trait #2: Icahn became rich by taking concentrated bets throughout his career. As Buffett has famously said, “you only need one or two great ideas a year to get rich.” This is exemplified in Icahn’s portfolio. His big win on Netflix garnered a 463% return in just 12 months, between 2012 and 2013.
Trait #3: Patience is king. You don’t have to go to Harvard or have a Goldman Sachs investing pedigree to have patience. And many times, that can be the difference between making money and losing money in investing. Icahn has an average holding period of over two years.
Trait #4: Risk! When you hunt for big returns, you must be willing to accept drawdowns and losers. Icahn has multiple stocks over the past 20 years that have been full losers (i.e. they went to zero). But when you have a portfolio full of stocks with big potential, in the end the big winners can more than pay for the losers.
With these key themes in his portfolio, Icahn has achieved the greatest track record of any investor alive, and a net worth in excess of $25 billion along the way. And he has done it with a portfolio of stocks that most investors would likely run away from.
Want to invest like the greatest investor of all-time? According to his most recent 13F filings, Icahn’s five biggest stock positions (aside from his holding company) are Apple (AAPL), CVR Energy (CVI), eBAY (EBAY), Federal Modul Holdings (FDML) and Hologic (HOLX).
Billionairesportfolio.com, run by two veterans of the hedge fund industry, helps self-directed investors invest alongside the world’s best billionaire investors. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012.
Stocks have been on a great run and with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan pumping money into the global economy–picking up where the Fed left off–expect it to continue.
Given the low global inflationary environment and the ultra-easy global central bank activity, bond yields in the U.S. have remained subdued, despite the expectation that the Fed will be raising rates for the first time in nine years later this year. The 10-year note is yielding less than 1.9% this morning.
Meanwhile, we’re seeing a rare occurrence in stocks, and an extremely bullish one. For one of the few times in history, stock dividends are paying a yield greater than U.S. Treasurys. The yield on Dow stocks is 2.25% and the yield on S&P 500 stocks is 1.99%.
This positive yield differential for stocks has only happened five other times in history; each time stocks went up big one-month and three-months later.
If that’s not enough, April happens to be the single best month for Dow stocks over the past 50-years.
With this all in mind, here are a few ways to play it:
You could buy the Dow Jones Industrials Average ETF (DIA) or the three times leveraged Dow ETF (UDOW). Or, our favored way at BillionairesPortfolio.com is to invest alongside an influential investor that has huge skin in the game. This gives you an extra layer of protection, a fellow shareholder that has the power and influence to control his own destiny. With that, you could buy these four Dow component stocks, each controlled by one of the top billionaire investors in the world:
1) Apple: Billionaire activist legend Carl Icahnowns Apple. He says it’s worth $200, and he’s recently been adding to his position. Apple has multiple catalysts in April. The company is launching its watch. Apple reports earnings this month, where we could potentially see another stock buyback announcement and/or an increase its dividend.
2) Dupont: Billionaire activist investor Nelson Peltz has nearly 20% of his hedge fund’s assets in Dupont. He owns nearly 1.8% of the company and has asked Dupont to grant him and his team Board seats, as he wants DuPont broken up to unlock value.
3) Dow Chemical: Billionaire activist hedge fund manager Dan Loeb is also agitating for change at Dow. Loeb owns more than $1 billion of Dow shares and the company has just agreed to split off its chlorine business, a byproduct of Dan Loeb’s activist efforts.
4) Coke: Everyone knows Warren Buffett owns Coke. The interesting part is that Buffett has recently orchestrated a huge merger between two of the largest big-brand food companies, Heinz and Kraft. Kraft shareholders made a 35% premium on their shares overnight. Applying the same takeover multiple to Coke, Coke could be worth as much 40% on a private equity buyout.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012, beating even the great Carl Icahn’s record for the same period.
Billionaire investor, Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, has one of the best investing track records in the world.
When you add back fees, Ackman has returned 1,199% since starting his fund in 2004. That compares to 119% in the S&P 500 for the same period. That’s ten times better than the S&P 500.
His short position on Herbalife has been very well documented. In his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, he said “it will” go to zero, and he confidently said his fund is “very short.” This comes after the stock has halved since July of last year.
A billionaire face-off on Herbalife started early 2013, following a presentation by Ackman at the Ira Sohn investment conference in New York, where he made the case for his Herbalife short. It included the accusation that Herbalife was running a ponzi-scheme. At that time, the stock was trading the mid $30s. Months later, billionaires Dan Loeb and Carl Icahn both took shots at Ackman’s thesis, and took long positions in the stock, attempting to squeeze Ackman. It worked, for a while. The stock ultimately ran up to $81 in January of 2014.
Ackman says they “bought a lot of put options” on that run up, “in the $70s and $80s.” Now HLF shares are trading back in the $30s, and Ackman says it’s a race to the bottom. He thinks the stock will either hit zero or the government will step in before that, and shut them down.
At this point, Ackman’s campaign against Herbalife is looking quite good.
Love him or hate him, Ackman is one of the best performing investors on the planet, and for average investors, his portfolio might be one of the easiest to replicate. We know about his Herbalife position. Here’s a look at the seven publicly reported core holdings of Ackman’s $18+ billion Pershing Square fund, as of its recent SEC disclosures. These are positions where Pershing owns more than 5% of a company:
Allergan AGN NaN% (AGN) – AGN represents 34% of his portfolio. He has a $6 billion stake in the company.
Air Products & Chemicals APD +0.72% (APD) – APD represents 17% of his portfolio. He has a $3.1 billion stake.
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP) – CP represents a 14% of his portfolio. He has a $2.6 billion stake.
Burger King Worldwide, Inc. (BKW) – BKW represents 8.5% of his portfolio. He has a stake worth $1.1 billion.
Platform Specialty Products Corp (PAH) – PAH represents 5% of his portfolio. He has a stake worth about $940 million.
The Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC) – HHC represents 3% of his portfolio. He has a stake of $510 million.
Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) – ZTS is a relatively new addition to his portfolio. According Pershing’s recent 13d filing, it has a stake representing about 10% of the Pershing portfolio, or a position valued at about $1.8 billion.
Ackman’s Pershing Square fund also holds small stakes in Fannie and Freddie Mac, as well as at least two undisclosed small positions. But Ackman has more than 75% of his fund’s money in just four stocks – long positions. That shows extraordinary conviction, and it also means he can’t afford to lose. That conviction and confidence is present only because he has the ability to gain control of, and influence on, the companies he invests in.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012.
These days everyone is familiar with big-brand activism, led by billionaires Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman.
Icahn has often made a splash in the media in the past year, using his influence and voice to push for change in big companies. And it works. He has made a huge impact for shareholders in Apple and Netflix. But even though both Icahn and Ackman continue to produce tremendous returns, they have limitations on what activist campaigns they can pursue.
They have size constraints, too. Both run multi-billion dollar portfolios, which all but rules out their ability to participate in smaller company investments. And that’s where smaller funds have an advantage.
One of the best, smaller, and lesser-known activist hedge funds we follow in The Billionaires Portfolio is Becker Drapkin. Becker Drapkin is a $300 million small cap activist hedge fund with an outstanding record of selecting big winners. Their average activist campaign (i.e. stock investment) has returned 130%.
Below are the top four stocks in Becker Drapkin’s portfolio. In each case, the fund owns 5% or more of the stock, which gives them a controlling interest in the company. Plus, one of the biggest determinants of success in an activist campaign is the board seat, and Becker Drapkin has at least one seat on the board of directors at each of these companies.
1) Emcore (EMKR)- This is one of Becker Drapkin’ biggest positions. They own 10% of Emcore, with board seats.
2) Fuel Systems (FSYS)- Becker Drapkin owns more than 9% of FSYS, and has board seats.
3) Comverse (CNSI) – Becker Drapkin has more than 10% of their fund’s assets in this stock, with a board seat.
4) Intevac (IVAC)- Becker Drapkin owns more than 9% of this stock, and has board representation as well.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012, beating even Carl Icahn’s record for the same period.
One of the most profitable ways to piggyback the world’s best billionaire investors and hedge funds is by following their newest positions.
Over the past two weeks there has been significant buying from billionaire investors and hedge funds, which is usually a bullish sign for stocks. Let’s take a look at some of the most recent transactions:
1) Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – Legendary billionaire activist Carl Icahn recently added to his already large position in Chesapeake last week, buying 6.6 million shares at average price of $14.15. That gives Icahn an 11% stake. Chesapeake looks cheap at 9 times earnings, with a dividend yield of 2.5%, and selling at just two thirds of its book value of $21 a share.
2) Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) – Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, of Pershing Square, recently upped his stake in Valeant from 4.9% to 5.7% — at an average price of $196.72. Valeant has been a high flyer. It’s up 38% in 2015 and 54% over the past year. It’s hard to argue with Ackman’s timing. Almost every stock he has purchased over the past 2 years has gone straight up.
3) Manitowoc Company Inc. (MTW) – Billionaire hedge fund manager Larry Robbins, of Glenview Capital Management, initiated a new 6.3% position in Manitowoc — at an average price of $20.41. Manitowoc also happens to be owned by billionaire Carl Icahn. Icahn recently forced the company to split into separate companies, which could potentially unlock $10 of hidden value in this stock according to many wall street analysts.
4) EXA Corporation (EXA) – Billionaire George Soros recently purchased 1.26 million shares of EXA, or 9% of the company, at an average price of $10.10. EXA is small cap software and services company to the automotive industry that has been rumored to be an acquisition target at $16 to $20 share. That would be a 30% to 60% premium from its share price today.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012, beating even the great Carl Icahn’s record for the same period.
Despite the powerful recovery in stocks, the rally has had few believers. All along the way, skeptics have pointed to threats in Europe, domestic debt issues, political stalemates, perceived asset bubbles — you name it. As it relates to stocks, they’ve all been dead wrong.
The S&P 500 is now more than 200% higher than it was at its crisis-induced 2009 lows, and 34% higher than its all-time highs. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is still shy of its March 2000 high of 4816. That creates a scenario for an explosive rise still to come for the Nasdaq.
For those that have been cautious about the level of stocks, many have argued that the economy is fragile. The bond market disagrees. The yield curve may be THE best predictor of recessions historically. Yield curve inversions (where short rates move above longer-term rates) have preceded each of the last seven recessions. Based on this yield curve analysis, the Cleveland Fed puts the current recession risk at just 5.97% — a level more consistent with economic boom times.
With this economic backdrop in mind, our research at BillionairesPortoflio.com shows that stocks will continue to march higher, likely a lot higher.
Consider this: If we applied the long-run annualized return for stocks (8%) to the pre-crisis highs of 1,576 on the S&P 500, we get 2,917 by the end of this year, when the Fed is expected to start a slow process toward normalizing rates. That’s 38% higher than current levels. Below you can see the table of the S&P 500, projecting this “normal” growth rate to stocks.
In addition to the above, consider this: The P/E on next year’s S&P 500 earnings estimate is just 17.1, in line with the long-term average (16). But we are not just in a low-interest-rate environment, we are in the mother of all low-interest-rate environments (ZERO). With that, when the 10-year yield runs on the low side, historically, the P/E on the S&P 500 runs closer to 20, if not north of it. A P/E at 20 on next year’s earnings consensus estimate from Wall Street would put the S&P 500 at 2,454, or 16% higher than current levels for stocks.
What about the impending end to zero interest rates in the United States? Well, guess what? Asset prices are driven by capital flows. Barron’s reports a $1.63 trillion spread between bond-fund inflows and equity-fund outflows from January 2007 to January 2013, said to be the widest spread ever. Over that period, $1.23 trillion flowed into bond funds and $409 billion exited equity funds. This means, an official end to zero interest rates should mean a flood of capital leaving bond markets and entering equity markets.
Now, how might all of this bode for the Nasdaq? In March 2000 when the Nasdaq traded at its all-time highs, the index traded at well over 100 times earnings. And the ten year yield was 6.66%. As an investor, you could exit a market with record high valuations and get a risk free, nearly 7% return on your money in Treasuries. Today, the Nasdaq has a price/earnings multiple of just 21. And the ten year yield is a paltry 2%. This dynamic continues to underpin demand and capital flows favoring stocks.
With that said, here are the top four constituents in the Nasdaq 100, their current valuation and the equivalent investment option in the year 2000, when the Nasdaq last peaked.
1) Apple (AAPL) – Apple trades at just 15 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Microsoft (MSFT), the biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 57 times forward earnings.
2) Google (GOOG) – Google trades at 19 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Cisco (CSCO), the second biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 127 times forward earnings.
3) Microsoft (MSFT) – Microsoft trades at just 16 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Intel (INTC), the third biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 43 times forward earnings.
4) Facebook (FB) – Facebook trades at 39 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Oracle (ORCL), the fourth biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 103 times forward earnings.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012, beating even the great Carl Icahn’s record for the same period.
Yesterday, billionaire hedge fund manager Barry Rosenstein, of the activist hedge fund Jana Partners, said that Hertz ($HTZ), the largest rental car company in the U.S. should triple in price. Rosenstein is taking a page from Icahn on two fronts: 1) Using the media to promote his message, and 2) calling for a stock buyback.
Rosenstein’s fund owns more than 8% of Hertz. And Carl Icahn owns 10% as well. Altogether, hedge funds own more than 50% of the Hertz, even as the stock has dropped nearly 25% over the past six months. Rosenstein said Hertz will be able to buy back as much as 25% of their stock, which should juice earnings and cause the stock to triple in price over the next year.
With two of the best billionaire activists in the world controlling almost 20% of Hertz, this stock is a must own stock for investors in 2015. You can see in the chart below, the stock has based just above $20. Icahn owns most of his stake above $28.
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This past Friday on CNBC, billionaire energy mogul T. Boone Pickens predicted that oil prices would be near $80 by the fourth quarter of this year. His oil prediction is based on the thesis that U.S. energy companies will drastically cut back on production. That would decrease the supply of oil produced, eventually driving prices higher again.
Pickens said the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. declined at the second biggest weekly rate in more than 24 years.
If he’s right, and oil bounces back to levels last seen just two months ago, many small and mid-cap energy stocks are in position to double or triple, by returning to levels traded when oil was last $80. Of course, first oil needs to bottom. For those looking for reasons to believe a bottom is here for oil, at the close today, crude traded into rising 16-year trendline support.
This trend started in December of 1998 and touched in late 2001, and again in late 2008 — each time bouncing aggressively. From those dates, within twelve months oil was 160% higher, 100% higher and 146% higher, respectively.
Through our analysis at BillionairesPortfolio.com, we’ve identified the following five stocks that could double or triple if oil prices go back to $80.
1) Oasis Petroleum (OAS)- Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson owns nearly 10% of this stock. The activist hedge fund SPO Advisory owns 8% and has been buying the stock on almost every dip. When oil was last $80, OAS was trading $30.74 or 130% higher than current levels.
2) SandRidge Energy (SD)- Billionaire hedge fund managers, Leon Cooperman and Prem Watsa own almost 20% of SandRidge. This stock traded above $4 last November, when oil was $80. That’s 185% higher than its current share price today.
3) Gran Tierra Energy (GTE)- This might be the cheapest energy stock on the planet. The company has zero debt, and $1.30 in cash per share, more than half of its current share price of $2.26. With this much cash, you are getting the company’s oil and natural gas assets for a song. When oil was last $80, GTE was trading at $4.64 or 110% higher than current levels.
4) Energy XXI LTD. (EXXI) – If oil goes back to $80 a barrel, EXXI should be worth almost $8 a share. That’s nearly a triple from its current price of $2.80. Energy XXI sold for as much as $24 a share just 7 months ago.
5) Breitburn Energy Partners (BBEP) – Breitburn should be a near triple if oil goes back to $80. The stock already popped today by 22%. BBEP currently sold for $17.56 last November, when oil prices were at $80 a barrel. Breitburn pays an incredible $1 per share dividend, giving the stock a current dividend yield of 15%.
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