You can see in the chart above, we’ve dropped 27% over the past 31 days.  The other big drops in crude were in February of 2016 (the crash) and in November of 2014 (OPEC’s refusal to cut oil production).

Interestingly, these historic crude price declines were occurring as the Fed was preparing markets for the beginning of its normalization campaign (i.e. moving rates away from the emergency zero interest rate level).  And it was these price declines that threw a wrench in those plans.

Despite what the central bankers say, oil prices have a big influence on their read on inflation.  Lower oil prices put downward pressure on inflation.  And as oil prices were plunging from 2014 through 2016, the Fed clearly and dramatically held back on their rate hiking plans.

On that note, remember yesterday we talked about the prospects that Powell (Fed Chair) may use the opportunity to dial down expectations of a December rate hike, if we see some soft data this week (growth data from Japan and Europe and inflation data from U.S., Europe and UK).  We now have a big haircut on oil prices to factor into the inflation data.  That too, may give him the excuse to pause on rates.  We’ll hear from him tomorrow at a Dallas Fed meeting.

November 12, 5:00 pm EST

Stocks continue to swing around following last weeks midterm elections.  Perhaps it has something to do with the uncertain outcome that remains in Florida, given the role Florida will play in the 2020 Presidential election.  Perhaps it has something to do with the continuation of the unraveling of the tech giants.

Maybe more importantly, we head into a week with key inflation data hitting for the U.S., Europe and the UK.  And we have Q3 GDP numbers coming from Japan and Europe.  The Japanese economy is expected to have contracted last quarter.

Slowing numbers in Japan and Europe, along with some tame inflation data might give the Fed Chair (Powell) an excuse to dial down expectations of a December Fed hike.  He is scheduled to speak Wednesday afternoon at a Dallas Fed event.

With the idea that the new divided Congress will put the brakes on any new pro-growth economic policies, Powell may be looking for the excuse to slow the pace that rates are rising.  That would be a huge catalyst for stocks.

November 6, 5:00 pm EST

In my note yesterday, we talked about the probable outcomes for the elections.

Whether we see the Republican’s retain control of the house, or lose it, both scenarios should be a greenlight for stocks.

Why? Because the cloud of uncertainty will be lifted. Even if we were to have gridlock in Washington, from here forward, the economy has strong momentum already, and the benefits of fiscal stimulus and deregulation are still working through the system.

Now, given today’s midterm elections are feeling a bit like the Presidential election of 2016 (as a referendum on Trump, this time), I want to revisit my note from election day on November 8, 2016.

As I said at that time, central banks had been responsible for the global economic recovery of the prior nine years, and for creating and maintaining relative economic stability.  And creating the incentives to push money into the stock market (i.e. push stocks higher) played a big role in the coordinated strategies of the world’s biggest central banks.  With that, I said “neither the economic recovery, nor the stock market recovery can be credited much to politicians.  In this environment, in the long run, the value of the new President for stocks will prove out only if there’s structural change. And structural change can only come when the economy is strong enough to withstand the pain. And getting the economy to that point will likely only come from some big and successfully executed fiscal stimulus.”

It turns out, Trump has indeed executed on fiscal stimulus.  And he’s gone aggressively after structural change too (perhaps too early, and with some success, but at a price he may pay for politically).  Still, he’s been able to execute ONLY because he’s had an aligned Congress.

Importantly, the economic policies out of Washington have allowed the Fed to bow-out of the game of providing life support to an economy that was nearly killed by the financial crisis.  That’s good!

November 5, 5:00 pm EST

The elections tomorrow are said to be a referendum on Trump’s Presidency.

And given the sentiment, I think it’s fair to say the surprise scenario for markets would be for Republicans to retain control of Congress.  For that to happen, it looks like the Republicans would need to win 61% of the “toss up” races in the house.  Of those, 84% are currently Republican held.

That scenario would be a vote of confidence for the Trump economic agenda.  And for markets, it would be “risk on,” which would likely draw more attention to the inflation outlook, and the speed at which market interest rates will move. Trump would retain his leverage over China on trade concessions.

Scenario two, would be a split Congress.  If we get a split Congress, the Trump economic plan would likely turn to infrastructure.  The belief is that a Democrat led house would likely be a partner to Trump on a big infrastructure spend.

Though I suspect, given the political atmosphere, they may work to block any further progress on the economic stimulus front, in effort to position themselves for the 2020 Presidential election.   On China trade negotiations, I suspect a split Congress would begin to fight against Trump’s executive order-driven trade wars.  This scenario would mean, gridlock in Washington.

However, after the cloud of election uncertain lifts, both scenarios should be a greenlight for stocks.

Remember, we already have an economy running north of 3%, with record low unemployment, and consumers are sitting on record high household net worth and record low debt service ratios.  Companies are growing earnings at over 20% (yoy), and growing revenues at over 8% (yoy).  And corporate credit market debt is near the lowest levels (relative to market value of corporate equities) of the past 70 years.

So there is plenty of fuel in the economy to continue the trajectory of economic boom.  Maybe most importantly, following the October correction, the tech giants have been pricing out the “monopoly scenario” which paves the way for a broader-based bull market for stocks.