Yesterday, after the Fed shot down concerns of stagflation or any prospects of rate hikes, the December Fed Funds futures posted an outside day (a technical reversal signal), and so did the dollar.

What does that portend?  Rates lower, which is good for stocks.  Dollar lower, which should continue to fuel commodities prices.

Let’s take a look at what might be the best place for investment returns in 2024.

Asian stocks.  We already know Japanese stocks have been on a tear — up as much as 24% this year (at the March highs).

Here’s the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) …

It was up 2.5% overnight and has just broken out of this down trend that started in Q1 of 2021.

And there’s a similar chart in Chinese stocks …

Stocks were in decline to start the year in China, on weak growth prospects for 2024.

The Chinese government responded on January 22 with promises to prop up the stock market.  That was the bottom in FXI and the Hang Seng.

The Chinese central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points on February 5th, to stimulate the economy.  It was the biggest cut in two years, and it put the bottom in the Shanghai Composite (the broad Chinese stock market).

On March 4th the Chinese government said they would target “around 5%” growth this year, at the annual National People’s Congress legislative session — implying more aggressive fiscal and monetary policy fuel.

And with the bottom of U.S. stocks in April (on the de-escalation of Iran/Israel, reduced global risk), Asian stocks have had the relative strength.

We entered the Fed decision today with the 2-year yield above 5% and the S&P 500 having just delivered a down 4.7% month.  And with GDP in the first quarter having just been revised down dramatically, to under 2%.

These are circumstances that were brought to us by the Fed.

By the Fed’s historically high level of real interest rates (Fed Funds rate minus the inflation rate).  And by the Fed’s “sentiment manipulation” (“communications strategy”).

On the latter, the numerous public speaking engagements by Fed officials over the past three months successfully moved market expectations from one extreme (expecting as many as seven rate cuts by year-end) to the other extreme.

How extreme had expectations shifted?

As of yesterday’s close, the interest rate market was pricing in less than one full rate cut by year-end.  And based on recent comments from a voting Fed member, some in the investment community had even begun to speculate that rate hikes could once again be back in play.

Moreover, if we look at the year-end expectations on where the Fed Funds rate will be, it’s projecting higher today than it was back in October.  And at that time, the Fed was projecting an additional rate hike in December, and still engaged in the tightening cycle.

Now, not only does this dramatic swing in market interest rates and expectations tighten financial conditions (adding to an already historically tight real interest rate, set by the Fed), but it increases the risk of a liquidity shock.

With that, as we discussed in my Monday note, it was crucial in today’s Fed decision/press conference that they move the rate expectations pendulum back toward the middle.

So, what did the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, have to say today?

He shot down the notion that Tuesday’s hotter wage report was an inflation concern.

He shot down the notion that the economy is settling into a stagflation stage (i.e. slow growth, high inflation).  He said growth is neither slow, nor is inflation high (relative to historic stagflation periods).

And he shot down the notion that the policy path could include a rate hike as the next move.  He said the discussion at the Fed is not about direction, but “how long to hold rates in restrictive territory.”

This was clearly a dovish message from the Fed today. And it countered a market that was positioned for something ranging from hawkish to very hawkish.

That should take pressure off of the interest rate market.  And should provide support for stocks, coming out of an April retracement.

There was broad-based selling across markets today:  Stocks, bonds, commodities, everything.

It started with hotter than expected wage data (Q1 employment cost index).  With the Fed decision tomorrow, on the back of hotter than expected inflation data in recent months, the influence of rising wages on the inflation picture spooked markets.

But it’s an overreaction.  Why?

Remember, we’re in a productivity boom!

We averaged just 1% productivity growth for the decade prior to the pandemic, and negative 0.7% from the fourth quarter of 2020 through early last year.   Since then, productivity growth has averaged 3.7%.

And as Jerome Powell has said in the past, wage gains should equal productivity gains plus inflation (a formula of non-inflationary wage growth).

The latest inflation of 2.7% plus 3.7% productivity, gives us year-over-year wage gains of 6.4%.   The wage number this morning was 4.2% (year-over-year rise).  That means wages should be rising faster.

With the above said, among the important events of the week (Fed, earnings, Friday’s job report), the Q1 productivity report on Thursday is a big one.

Let’s take a look at a couple of charts as we head into tomorrow’s Fed decision …

 

Relating to the above chart, it’s important to remember that the Fed made an official policy change in the way they evaluate their 2% inflation target back in September of 2020.