Global markets continue to swing around today. Remember, the past couple of days we’ve looked at the three most important markets in the world right now: U.S., German and Japanese 10-year government bonds.
In recent days, German and Japanese debt have swung back into positive territory. That’s a huge signal for markets, and it’s sustaining today – with German 10-year yields now at +8 basis points, and Japanese yields hanging around the zero line, after six months in negative territory.
Stocks are on the slide again, though. And the volatility index for stocks is surging again. Those two observations alone would have you thinking risk is elevated and perhaps a “calling uncle” stage is upon us and/or coming down the pike, especially if it’s a bubbly bond market. If that’s the case, gold should be screaming. It’s not. Gold is down today, steadily falling over the past five days.
So if you have a penchant for understanding and diagnosing every tick in the markets, as the media does, you will likely be a little confused by the inter-market relationships of the past few days.
That’s been the prevailing message from the Delivering Alpha conference today in New York: Confusion. Delivering Alpha is another high profile, big investor/best ideas conference. There are several conferences throughout the year now that the media covers heavily. And it’s been a platform for big investors to talk their books and, sometimes, get some meaningful follow on support for their positions.
Interestingly, one of the panelist today, Bill Miller, thinks we’ll see continued higher stocks, but lower bonds (i.e. higher yields/rates). Miller is a legendary fund manager. He beat the market 15 consecutive years, from the 90s into the early 2000s.
Miller’s view fits nicely with the themes we talk about here in my daily notes. Still, people are having a hard time understanding the disconnect between this theme and the historical relationship between stocks and bonds.
Let’s talk about why …
Historically, when rates go up, stocks go down — and vice versa. There is an inverse correlation.
This see-saw of capital flow from stocks to bonds tends to happen, in normal times, when stocks are hot and the economy is hot and the Fed responds with a rate hiking cycle. The rate path cools the economy, which puts pressure on stocks. That’s a signal to sell. And rising rates creates a more attractive risk-adjusted return for investors, so money moves out of stocks and into bonds.
But in this world, when the Fed is moving off of the zero line for rates, with the hope of being able to escape emergency policies and slowly normalize rates, they aren’t doing it with the intent of cooling off a hot economy (as would be the motive in normal times). They’re doing it and praying that they don’t cool off or destabilize a sluggishly growing economy. They’re hoping that a slow “normalization” in rates can actually provide some positive influence on the economy, by 1) sending a message to consumers and businesses that the economy is strong enough and robust enough to end emergency level policy. And by 2) restoring some degree of proper function in the financial system via a risk-free yield. Better economic outlook is good for stocks. And historically, when rates are lower than normal (under the long term average of 3% on the Fed Funds rate), P/E multiples run north of 20 – which gives plenty of room for multiple expansion on expected earnings (i.e. supports the bullish stocks case).
That’s why I think stocks go higher and rates go higher in the U.S. I assume that’s why Bill Miller (the legendary fund manager) thinks so too. It all assumes the ECB and the BOJ do their part – carrying the QE torch, which translates to, standing ready to act against any shocks that could derail the global economy.
But even if the Fed is able to carry on with a higher rate path, they continue to walk that fine line, as we discussed yesterday, of managing a slow crawl higher in key benchmark market rates (like the 10-year yield). An abrupt move higher in market rates would undo a lot of economic progress by killing the housing market recovery and resetting consumer loans higher (killing consumer spending and activity).
We headed into the weekend with a market that was spooked by a sharp run up in global yields. On Friday, we looked at the three most important markets in the world at this very moment: U.S. yields, German yields and Japanese yields.
On the latter two, both German and Japanese yields had been deeply in negative yield territory. And the perception of negative rates going deeper (a deflation forever message), had been an anchor, holding down U.S. market rates.
But in just three days, the tide turned. On Friday, German yields closed above the zero line for the first time since June 23rd. Guess what day that was?
Brexit.
And Japanese 10-year yields had traveled as low as 33 basis points. And in a little more than a month, it has all swung back sharply. As of today, yields on Japanese 10-year government debt are back in positive territory – huge news.
So why did stocks rally back sharply today, as much as 2.6% off of the lows of this morning – even as yields continued to tick higher? Why did volatility slide lower (the VIX, as many people like to refer to as, the “fear” index)?
Here’s why.
First, the ugly state of the government bond market, with nearly 12 trillion dollars in negative yield territory as of just last week, served as a warning signal on the global economy. As I’ve discussed before, over the history of Fed QE, when the Fed telegraphed QE, rates went lower. But when they began the actual execution of QE (buying bonds), rates went higher, not lower (contrary to popular expectations). Because the market began pricing in a better economic outlook, given the Fed’s actions.
With that in mind, the ECB and the BOJ have been in full bore QE execution mode, but rates have continued to leak lower.
That sends a confusing, if not cautionary, signal to markets, which is adding to the feedback loop (markets signaling uncertainty = more investor uncertainty = markets signaling uncertainty).
Now, with government bond yields ticking higher, and key Japanese and German debt benchmarks leaving negative yield territory, it should be a boost for sentiment toward the global economic outlook. Thus, we get a sharp bounce back in stocks today, and a less fearful market message.
Keep in mind, even after the move in rates on Friday, we’re still sitting at 1.66% in the U.S. 10-year. Before the Fed pulled the trigger on its first rate hike, in the post-crisis period, the U.S. 10-year was trading around 2.25%. As of last week, it was trading closer to 1.50%. That’s 75 basis points lower, very near record lows, AFTER the Fed’s first attempt to start normalizing rates. Don’t worry, rates are still very, very low.
Still, the biggest risk to the stability of the bond market is, positioning: The bond market is extremely long. If the rate picture swung dramatically and quickly higher, the mere positioning alone (as the longs all ran for the exit door) would exacerbate the spike. That would pump up mortgage rates, and all consumer interest rates, which would grind the economy to a halt and likely destabilize the housing market again. And, of course, the Fed would be stuck with another crisis, and little ammunition.
As Bernanke said last month, the Fed has done damage to their own cause by so aggressively telegraphing a tighter interest rate environment. In that instance, he was referring to the demand destruction caused by the fear of higher rates and a slower economy. But as we discussed above, the Fed also has risk that their hawkish messaging can run market rates up and create the same damage.
Bottom line: The Fed is walking a fine line, which is precisely why they continue to sway on their course, leaning one way, and then having to reverse and shift their weight the other way.
Last month we looked at 13F filings. These are the quarterly portfolio disclosures, required by the SEC, of large investors – those managing $100 million or more.
And we discussed 13D filings. These are required when a big investor takes a controlling stake in a company (ownership of 5% or more of the outstanding stock), he/she is required to disclose it to the SEC, through a public filing within ten days over crossing the 5% threshold. If it’s a passive investment, they file a form 13G. If they intend to engage management (i.e. wield influence) they file a 13D.
Bill Ackman, the well known billionaire activist investor, filed a 13D on Chipotle (CMG) yesterday. Today, we’ll take a look at this move.
In this filing, his fund, Pershing Square, disclosed a 9.9% stake in the company. Ackman thinks the stock is “undervalued” and “an attractive investment.”
Chipotle, at its peak valuation last year, was valued more like a high flying tech company. Yet this was a restaurant, albeit an innovator in the fast food business – in fact, they created a new segment in the food business, “fast casual.”
Then came the food crisis- an outbreak of e-coli cases. And the stock has been crushed – cut in half over the past year. Customers have been walking from Chipotle and into the many fast casual alternatives (competition spawned from Chipotle’s innovation).
Who tends to buy the bottom in these situations? Activists.
What’s a quick and easy fix in a sentiment crisis? Change.
To be sure, Chipotle has been drowning in a sentiment crisis. And even though Ackman thinks the company has “visionary leadership” we’ll see if he makes someone in current leadership a sacrificial lamb, in order to repair sentiment in the stock. This power to influence change is one of the few remaining edges in public stock market investing.
Ackman has said in a past letter to investors, “minority stakes in high quality businesses can be purchased in the public markets at a discount,” arising from two factors: “shareholder disaffection with management, and the short term nature of large amounts of retails and institutional investor capital which can overreact to negative short-term corporate or macro factors.” That’s how you identify value. But how do you close the value gap?
Shareholder disaffection with management is a typical qualifier to make it onto the radar screens of activist investors. There’s an opportunity to shake up management, change sentiment, and unlock value.
Last month, we talked about Mick McGuire, a protégé of Bill Ackman. He filed a 13D on Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), and announced a plan for change, and publicly said the stock could double on his game plan — it put a bottom in the stock.
Chipotle is up 5% on the news of Ackman’s involvement. At 42% off of highs, it’s a low risk/ high reward bet to follow Ackman.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
As we headed into the holiday weekend, stocks were sitting near record highs, yields were hanging around near record lows, and oil had been sinking back toward the danger zone (which is sub $40).
In examining the relationship of those three markets, each has a way of influencing the outcome and direction of the others.
First, the negative scenarios: A continued slide in oil would soon sink stocks again, and send yields (the interest rate outlook) falling farther. Cheap oil, in this environment, has dire implications for the energy business, which has a cascading effect, starting with banks, which effects credit and the dominos fall from there.
What about stocks? When stocks are falling, in this environment, it’s self-reinforcing. Lower stocks, equals souring sentiment, equals lower stocks.
What about yields? As we’ve seen, lower yields are supposed to promote spending and borrowing. But, in this environment, it comes with trepidation. Lower yields, especially when much of the world’s government bond markets are in negative yield territory, is having a stifling effect on economic activity, as many see it as a signal of another recession coming, or worse.
Now, for the positive scenarios. Most likely, they all come with intervention. That shouldn’t be surprising.
We’ve already seen the kitchen sink thrown at the stock market. From a monetary policy standpoint, the persistent Fed jockeying through much of the past seven years has now been handed over to Japan and Europe. QE in Europe and Japan continues to promote stability, which incentivizes the flow of capital into stocks (the only liquid alternative for return in a zero and negative interest rate world).
And we’ve seen them influence oil prices as well, through easing, currency market intervention, and likely the covert buying of oil back in February/March of this year (through China, ETFs via the BOJ or an intermediary Japanese bank). Still, OPEC still swings the big ax in the oil market, and it’s been OPEC intervention that has rigged oil prices to cheap levels, and it looks increasingly likely that they will send oil prices higher through a policy move. The news that Russian and Saudi Arabian might coordinate to promote higher oil prices, sent crude 5% higher on Monday.
As for yields, this is where the Fed is having a tough time. They want yields to slowly climb, to slowly follow their policy guidance. But the world hasn’t been buying it. When they hiked for the first time in December, the U.S. 10 year yield went from 2.25%, to 2.30% (for a cup of coffee) and has since printed new record lows and continues to hang closer to those levels than not (at 1.53% today). Lower yields makes it even harder for them to hike because it’s in the face of weaker sentiment.
Last week, we looked at the U.S. 10 year yield. It was trading in this ever narrowing wedge, looking like a big break was coming, one way or the other, following the jobs report on Friday. It looks like we may have seen the break today (lower), following the week ISM data this morning.
What could swing it all in the positive direction? Fiscal intervention.
As we discussed on Friday, the G20 met over the weekend. With world government leaders all in the same room, we know the geopolitical tensions have been rising, relationships have been dividing, but first and foremost priority for everyone at the table, is the economy.
Even those opportunistically posturing for influence and power (i.e. Russia, China), without a stable and recovery global economy, the political and domestic economic outlook is bleak. So we thought heading into the G20 that we could get some broader calls for government spending stimulus was in order.
The G20 statement did indeed focus heavily on the economy. They said, “Our growth must be shored up by well-designed and coordinated policies. We are determined to use all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks’ mandates, but monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth. Underscoring the essential role of structural reforms, we emphasize that our fiscal strategies are equally important to supporting our common growth objectives.”
Keep an ear open for some foreshadowing out of Europe to promote fiscal stimulus – the spot it’s most needed. That would be a huge catalyst for “risk assets” (i.e. commodities, stocks, foreign currencies) and would probably finally signal the top in the bond market.
After a fairly quiet August, we have a full docket of central meetings in the weeks ahead, starting this week. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday.
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This time last month, the famed oil trader—and oil bull—Andy Hall was dealing with a sub-$40 oil market again. And he was again explaining losses to investors in his multi-billion dollar hedge fund.
A guy that has made a career, and hundreds of millions of dollar in personal wealth, picking tops and bottoms in oil, had entered 2016 coming off his worst year ever. And 2016 started even worse.
I’ve talked about the oil price bust extensively, at the depths of the decline in January and February. While most were glorifying the benefits of a few extra bucks in the pockets of consumers from low gas prices, we walked through the ugly outcome of persistently low oil prices. It would be another global financial crisis, as failing energy companies and defaulting oil producing countries would crush banks, and the dominos would fall from there. Unfortunately, the central banks don’t have the ammunition to pull the world back from the edge of disaster for a second time.
With that, central banks stepped in with more easing in the face of the oil price threat, and oil bounced sharply.
Hall’s fund bounced sharply too, running up nearly 25% for the year, by the end of June. But he gave a lot of it back by the time July ended. And now, again, oil is closer to $40 than $50. Thanks to a report yesterday, that oil supplies were bigger than expected, the price of crude has fallen 10% since Friday of last week.
Hall was the CitigroupC +0.13% oil trader who made billions of dollars for the bank energy trading arm, Phibro, in the early-to mid-2000s. He was one of the first to load up on oil futures in 2002, when oil was sub-$30, on the thesis that a boom in demand was coming from China.
He reportedly made $800 million in profits for Citi in 2005 from his original bullish bet. He then made more than $1 billion in 2008 for the bank, as oil prices soared to $147 a barrel and then abruptly crashed. He profited handsomely from both sides, earning a payout from Citi of more than $100 million.
So he’s a guy that has been very right about turning points, and big trends. And he’s been pounding the table for much higher oil prices. He thinks oil prices are in for a “violent reversal” (higher). With an important OPEC meeting scheduled for later this month, Hall, in a past investor letter, reminded people how powerful an OPEC policy shift can be. In 1986, the mere hint of an OPEC policy move sent oil up 50% in just 24 hours.
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We watched oil closely earlier this year. The oil price bust ultimately pulled down stocks. And when oil aggressively bounced off of the bottom, stocks recovered alongside, returning to new record highs.
Today it was oil again.
Stocks oscillated near record highs and following an anticipated Fed event last week had continued to tread water. That gives the bears a low risk trade to sell the S&P 500 against the top (as a take profit, hedge or just a trade), holding out hope that gravity would take hold.
It hasn’t happened. But we did get a catalyst to get it moving lower today, with a bigger than expected oil inventory build. That sent oil down nearly 4% on the day.
Oil stocks took a hit. But the broader stock market held up well, losing just 1/2 percent and recovering most of it by the day’s end.
The market still sits at critical levels going into the jobs number on Friday. Yields continue to chop in this ever tightening wedge (below) — a break looks certain on the jobs number. This is a very important chart.
And stocks are positioned close enough to the highs to encourage some profit taking (if the highs get taken out, you put the position back on … if the highs hold, you may have an opportunity to buy it back cheaper).
It remains a macro story – a central bank story. And that’s the mindset of the market as we head into the end of what has been a rather sleepy August.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
Last Thursday, everyone was awaiting the Friday Jackson Hole speech from Yellen. I suggested that, while all eyes were on Yellen, maybe Kuroda (the head of the BOJ) would steal the show: “he could conjure up some Bernanke style QE3. Not a bad bet to be long USD/JPY and dollar-denominated Nikkei through the weekend (ETF, DBJP or DXJ).”
Indeed, Yellen was short on clarity as we’ve discussed in recent days. As of this afternoon, stocks are now unchanged from Thursday afternoon (just prior to her speech). And the 10-year yield is right where it was before she spoke — and looking like a coin flip on which direction it may break. The pain is lower, so it will probably go lower.
As for Kuroda, he did indeed steal the show, at least in terms of market impact. On Saturday, Kuroda hit the wires saying its negative rate policy was far from reaching the limit and said they would act with more QE or deeper negative rates “without hesitation.” That’s a greenlight for buying Japanese stocks and selling the yen (buying USD/JPY).
The Nikkei is up 1.5% from Friday’s close, and USD/JPY is up 2.7% (yen down).
Was Kuroda telegraphing another big round of fresh QE (as Bernanke did in 2012)? Maybe. He said inflation remains vulnerable in Japan and is responding “differently” (i.e. worse) to shocks like falling oil prices.
Inflation in Japan, even after rounds of unprecedented QE, is back in negative territory and has been for five consecutive months of year-over-year deflation. The U.S. economy looks like its running hot compared to Japan. It’s not a bad bet to expect Japan to act first, with more QE, to pump asset prices, and then the Fed would have a little more breathing room to make another hike (either December) or early next year.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
The Fed’s Janet Yellen was the focal point for markets for the week. She had a scheduled speech at the annual Fed conference at Jackson Hole.
When her speech was finally made public Friday morning, the response in markets was uncertainty (the most used word for the past nine years).
Stocks went up, then down. Yields went down, then up.
So what do we make of it? Let’s start with the headlines that hit the wire Friday morning.
The world was wondering if Yellen would support the messaging from some of her fellow Fed members–that a September rate hike is on the table. Or would she continue the backstepping (dovish speak) the Fed has done for the past five months. The answer was ‘yes.’ She did both.
Yellen said the case for rate hikes has strengthened (yellow marker) because the data is nearing their goals (employment and inflation–the white marker). Ah, rate hike. But then she said the Fed expects inflation to hit the target 2% in the next few years (circled)! And then talked about the strategy for more QE. Huh? And then to top it off, she said they might move the goalposts. They might move the inflation target higher, and start targeting GDP. That means they would be happy to leave conditions ultra accommodative until those higher targets are met. Clearly dovish.
As I said Thursday, they want to raise rates to get the financial system closer to proper functioning, but they don’t want to cause a recession. The Fed wants to raise short-term rates, but promote a flatter yield curve (i.e. promote expectations that the economy will continue to be soft) to keep the market interest rates low, which keeps the housing market on the rails and the economic activity on the rails.
Remember, we talked about the piece Bernanke wrote a couple of weeks ago, where he suggested exactly this type of perception manipulation from the Fed, to balance the need to raise rates, without killing the economy.
That looks like the game plan.
Have a great weekend!
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
Tomorrow is the big annual Fed conference in Wyoming. It typically draws the world’s most powerful central bankers. This is where, in 2012, Bernanke telegraphed a round three of its quantitative easing program.
The economy was still shaky following the escalating sovereign debt crisis in Europe, which had taken Spain and Italy to the brink of default. Draghi and the ECB stepped in first, in late July and made the big “whatever it takes” promise. This is where he threatened to crush the bond market speculators that had run yields up in the government bond markets of Spain and Italy to economic failure levels. He threatened to take the other side of that trade, to whatever extent necessary, in effort to save the future of the euro. It worked. He didn’t have to buy a single bond. The bond vigilantes fled. Yields ultimately fell sharply.
But just a month after Draghi’s threat, it was uncertain at best, that it would work. With that, and given the economies globally were still flailing, Bernanke hinted that more QE was coming at the August Jackson Hole conference.
The combination of those to intervention events ignited global stocks, led by U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is up 55% from the date of Bernanke’s speech and the climb has been a 45 degree angle.
This time, this Jackson Hole, things are a bit more confusing, if that’s possible. The BOJ, ECB and BOE are QE’ing. The Fed has been going the other way. But in the past six months, they’ve backstepped big time.
The hawk talk went quite for a while earlier this year. Even Bernanke has written that the Fed has shot itself in the foot by publishing an optimistic trajectory and timeline for normalizing rate. It has resulted in an effect that has felt like a rate tightening, without them having to act. That’s the exact opposite of they want. They want to hike to restore some more traditional functioning of the financial system, but they don’t want to slow down economic activity. It doesn’t normally work that way, and it hasn’t worked that way.
So now we have Yellen speaking tomorrow, and people are looking for answers. We have some Fed members now wanting to dial back on public projections, as to not continue to negatively influence economic activity (Bernanke’s advice) and others getting in front of camera’s and telling us that a September hike might be in the cards.
But while everyone is looking to Yellen for clarity (don’t expect it), the show might be stolen by another central banker. Haruhiko Kuroda, head of the Bank of Japan, will be in Jackson Hole too. The agenda is not yet out so we don’t know if he’s speaking. But he could conjure up some Bernanke style QE3. Not a bad bet to be long USD/JPY and dollar-denominated Nikkei through the weekend (ETFs, DBJP or DXJ). Full disclosure: We’re long DBJP in our Billionaire’s Portfolio.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
As we head into the end of August, people continue to parse every word and move the Fed makes. Yellen gives a speech later this week at Jackson Hole (at an economic conference hosted by the Kansas City Fed), where her predecessor Bernanke once lit a fire under asset prices by telegraphing another round of QE.
Still, a quarter point hike (or not) from a level that remains near zero, shouldn’t be top on everyone’s mind. Keep in mind a huge chunk of the developed world’s sovereign bond market is in negative yield territory. And just two weeks ago Bernanke himself, intimated, not only should the Fed not raise rates soon, but could do everyone a favor — including the economy — by dialing down market expectations of such.
But the point we’ve been focused on is U.S. market and economic performance. Is the landscape favorable or unfavorable?
The narrative in the media (and for much of Wall Street) would have you think unfavorable. And given that largely pessimistic view of what lies ahead, expectations are low. When expectations are low (or skewed either direction) you get the opportunity to surprise. And positive surprises, with respect to the economy, can be a self-reinforcing events.
The reality is, we have a fundamental backdrop that provides fertile ground for good economic activity.
For perspective, let’s take a look at a few charts.
We have unemployment under 5%. Relative to history, it’s clearly in territory to fuel solid growth, but still far from a tight labor market.
What about the “real” unemployment rate all of the bears often refer to. When you add in “marginally attached” or discouraged job seekers and those working part-time for economic reasons (working part time but would like full time jobs) the rate is higher. But as you can see in the chart below that rate (the blue line) is returning to pre-crisis levels.
In the next chart, as we know, mortgage rates are at record lows – a 30 year fixed mortgage for about 3.5%.
Car loans are near record lows. This Fed chart shows near record lows. Take a look at your local credit union or car dealer and you’ll find used car loans going for 2%-3% and new car loans going for 0%-1%.
What about gas? In the chart below, you can see that gas is cheap relative to the past fifteen years, and after adjusted for inflation it’s near the cheapest levels ever.
Add to that, household balance sheets are in the best shape in a very long time. This chart goes back more than three decades and shows household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income.
As we’ve discussed before, the central banks have have pinned down interest rates that have warded off a deflationary spiral — and they’ve created the framework of incentives to hire, spend and invest. You can see a lot of that work reflected in the charts above.
In our Billionaire’s Portfolio, we’re positioned in deep value stocks that have the potential to do multiples of the broader market—all stocks that are owned and influenced by the world’s smartest and most powerful billionaire investors. Join us today and get yourself in line with our portfolio. You can join here.
