Over the past week, we’ve talked about the rational reasons to be long stocks. Today we want to walk through a few charts as we end the week.
Stocks
Stocks have set a new record high every day for the entire week. The last time that happened was in 1998. And following that period, stocks went up 50% over the next two years.
Last Friday we talked about the powerful influence of higher stocks. Central banks are well aware. As we’ve said, they want stocks higher, they need stocks higher. It’s the most effective resource they’ve had for restoring and building confidence, and promoting stability, in a low growth, vulnerable world working out of a debt crisis.
With that, we close the week near fresh record highs in U.S. This is 8% off of the bottom just three weeks ago.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
As we came into the week, the post-Brexit laggards had been Japanese and German stocks, and yields in the government bond market.
First, as we’ve discussed this week, the week kicked off with good news out of Japan. They’ve telegraphed a big fiscal stimulus package. And with the BOJ set to meet at the end of the month, and growth and inflation in Japan recently downgraded, Japan is in the position to unleash the powerful combination of both fiscal and (more) monetary stimulus.
With that, Japanese stocks have been on a tear for the week, now 11% off of the Brexit lows. The Nikkei has now fully recovered the sharp post-Brexit declines, and looks like a technical breakout of the correction off of last year’s highs is in the making (i.e. going higher).
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
And as we’ve said, we think Europe will be next to roll out much needed fiscal stimulus.
With that, German stocks aggressively rebounded this week too, led by bank stocks, which had been trading like big bank failures were in the pipeline (namely, Deutsche Bank). But for the German, European and global economy, Deutsche Bank is too big to fail. German stocks also look like a bullish technical break is coming.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Yields
With all of this said, early in the week we discussed the big divergence between record high stocks and record low government bond yields (particularly in the U.S.). And yields are now bouncing…
Germany sold negative yielding 10 year government bonds this week. And now, as we end the week, the German 10 year yield has gone from -20 basis points back into positive territory. This is a big deal and a key area to watch – the zero line.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
The U.S. 10 year traded just under 1.70% going into Brexit. After the UK vote it hit a record low at 1.32%, and goes out this week at 1.59%.
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Remember, we talked earlier in the week about the divergence between record high stocks and record low yields. And we looked back at the performance of stocks following the sharp bounce in yields from the 2012 new record lows. In this environment, yields bounce when sentiment improves. Improved sentiment is good for stocks. In 2012, yields bounced from 1.38% to, ultimately, 3%, and stocks finished up 16% in 2012, and added another 32% in 2013.
Have a great weekend!
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Since the Brexit news in late June we’ve discussed a couple of huge implications that we’ve thought will ultimately find Brexit to be a net positive to the global economy (in fact, a big net positive).
First, central banks have had the pedal to the medal throughout the post-Lehman environment, successfully averting a total disaster and manufacturing a semblance of global economic recovery. The missing piece of the policy puzzle has been fiscal stimulus.
In a debt crisis, it’s hard to convince politicians to stick their necks out and approve spending packages when overindebtedness has taken the world to the brink of total collapse. But they’ve discovered, without growth, the debt problem doesn’t get better, it only becomes more threatening. And fiscal stimulus (to accompany the zero interest rate world) is one of the few viable solutions to end the low and stagnant growth rut the global economy has been mired in for the better part of seven years.
So with the widespread uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote, politicians now have the ammunition/ the excuse to green light fiscal stimulus.
What’s the second “net positive?”
The Brexit fallout may finally give Japan the courage (and also the excuse) to crush the yen.
We discussed this two weeks ago, when Japanese stocks will still sitting near the “Brexit fallout” lows, and yen was strong — yet other markets (including UK stocks, U.S. stocks, oil) had already bounced and recovered.
We said: “We think they can, and will, ultimately destroy the value of the yen — mass devaluation.
Unlike the U.S., which is constrained by “flight to safety” global capital flows and a world reserve currency, Japan has the ingredients to make QE work, to promote demand, and to promote growth. Japan has the largest government debt problem in the world. They have an undervalued currency. They have a stagnating economy with big demographic challenges. They have are in a deflationary vortex.
They have the perfect attributes for a mass scale currency printing campaign. Not only can it work for their domestic economies, but it serves as the liquidity engine and stability preserver for the global economy.
In normal times, the rest of the world wouldn’t stand for a country outright devaluing their way to prosperity. But in a world where every country is in economic malaise, everyone can benefit – everyone needs it to work. It can be the solution for returning the global economy to sustainable growth. We wouldn’t be surprised to see USDJPY return to the levels of the mid-80s (versus the dollar)in the not too distant future. That would be 250+. Currently, 103 yen buys a dollar.”
On cue, this week, due to fallout from Brexit, Japan announced they will be rolling out a large spending package, after Abe’s party secured a super majority in the upper house over the weekend. The package is said to be about $200 billion dollars in fiscal stimulus this year alone, or about 4% of Japan’s GDP! This is huge news. Japanese stocks are already jumping sharply on the news and the yen has been weakening sharply.
And the Japanese government has also just dramatically downgraded both its growth and inflation projections for this year and next. That’s more ammunition for more action.
In Japan, bad news is good news for global markets, because it forces the BOJ and the Abe administration to do more. As we’ve said, we think the grand solution will be a massive devaluation of the yen.
The BOJ meets at the end of the month, and the table has been set for the most powerful response yet – a combination of fiscal and more, bolder monetary stimulus. Japan has no choice but to keep the pedal to the metal. And they have the right formula to use their currency as a tool to solve a lot of problems – both for their domestic economy and the global economy.
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Earlier this week we talked about the disconnect between yields and stocks.
The move lower in German yields, given the contagion risk in Europe that people have feared from Brexit, as we’ve discussed, has also dragged down U.S. yields. With that, the U.S. 10 year yield, post-Brexit, has traded to new record lows.
So we have record highs in U.S. stocks, and record lows in U.S. yields.
For people looking for the next reason to be worried, this is where they are hanging their hats. But is the uneasiness associated with this divergence warranted?
Let’s take a look at the chart…
Sources: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Now, you can see from the chart, we recently breached the record lows of 2012 in U.S. yields (the green line).
For a little back-story: Back in 2012, Europe was on the verge of a sovereign debt defaults that would have blown up the euro and the European Union. The ECB stepped in and promised to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, which included the threat of buying unlimited Italian and Spanish government bonds (the real threatening spot in the crisis). That sent bond market speculators, which had been running up the yields in Spanish and Italian debt to unsustainable levels, swiftly hitting the exit doors. At the height of that threat, global capital was pouring into U.S. government debt, which sent the 10 year yield to record lows. Still, U.S. stocks at the time were in solid shape, UP nearly 8% on the year in the face of record low bond yields.
What happened when the ECB stepped in and curtailed the threat? U.S. yields bounced aggressively. And U.S. stocks went even more sharply higher, finishing the year up 16%. In fact, the U.S. 10 year yield more than doubled (to as high as 3%) over the next seventeen months, and the S&P 500 added to 2012 gains, going another 32% higher in 2013.
So we have a very similar scenario now — and the drag on U.S. yields is, again, Europe and the threat to the euro and European Union.
And again, U.S. yields have hit new record lows, and stocks are putting up a solid year, as of July (the same month the tide turned in 2012).
We would argue, for the many reasons we’ve discussed in our daily notes, that stocks are in the sweet spot. As long as a global economic shock doesn’t occur, which is what central banks have proven very capable of managing over the past seven years, U.S. stocks should continue to benefit from the incentives of record low interest rates. And when market rates/yields rise, it’s only because the clouds of uncertainty clear. That’s very good for stocks too.
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As we said last week (and back in May), we think the second half of the year will be big for stocks.
Contrary to popular opinion, the world is not falling apart. In fact, the ratcheting down of expectations has set the table for positive economic surprises, which is powerful fuel for stocks.
Consider this: If you awoke today from a decade-long slumber, and we told you that unemployment was under 5%, inflation was low, gas was $2.15, mortgage rates were 3.5%, you could finance a new car for 2% and the stock market was at record highs, you would probably tell us the outlook for the economy looks really, really good.
Those are the conditions we have, yet most think the sky is falling.
As we’ve discussed, the central banks are in control, and they have been since the depths of the financial crisis. Say what you will, but they have (led by the Fed) orchestrated a global economy recovery (albeit much slower than typical post-recession recoveries) and have produced and preserved economic stability along the way. Playing a key role, in the face of intense scrutiny from the “run-away inflation” theorists, they have pinned down interest rates which have warded off a deflationary spiral and created the framework of incentives to hire, spend and invest.
With the above said, we think we could be on the precipice (if not the early stages) of an economic boom.
As for stocks, within that context, today we want to revisit some of our previous analysis on where stocks can go from here…
1) History
The long-run annualized return for the S&P 500 is 8%. If we applied that number to the pre-crisis highs from 2007 of 1,576 on the S&P 500, we get 3,150 by the end of this year. That’s 47% higher than current levels. That’s what it would take to make up for the nine years that stocks have been knocked off path — just to simply get the S&P back in line with historical norms.
2) Valuation
In addition to the above, consider this: The P/E on next year’s S&P 500 earnings estimate is just 16.9, near the long-term average (16). But we are in a very low interest rate environment. In fact, we are in the mother of all low-interest-rate environments (still near ZERO). With that, when the 10-year yield runs on the low side (it’s very low), historically, the P/E on the S&P 500 runs closer to 20, if not north of it.
If we multiply next year’s consensus earnings estimate for the S&P 500 of $126.76 by 20 (where stocks to be valued in low rate environments), we get 2,535 for the S&P 500 by next year — 18% higher.
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Over the past few weeks we said the decision by the UK to leave the European Union could actually end up being a net positive for the global economic recovery.
Why? Because it could finally invoke some much needed global fiscal stimulus – a piece of the policy puzzle that has been missing. As central banks have been manufacturing a recovery from one of the worst global economic crises in history, they’ve had no help from the politicians on the fiscal side. Governments have been unwilling to combat the fallout from a debt crisis with more debt. It’s has been politically unpalatable. In fact, most have been belt tightening. For Europe, the strategy sent them back into recession and into another fight with deflationary pressures.
But on cue (following Brexit), Japan has now announced they will be rolling out a “big, bold” spending package, after Abe’s party secured a super majority in the upper house over the weekend. The package is said to be about $200 billion dollars in fiscal stimulus this year. That’s about 4% of GDP.
As we’ve said, if we look back through history, the meaningful turning points in markets have been triggered by intervention. We’ve seen plenty examples in the bottoms made along the path of the recovery in stocks from the 2009 lows (including the coordinated central bank intervention that put in the ultimate bottom in the post-Lehman stock market crash).
Today, Japanese stocks have jumped 4% on the news. The yen has done an about face against the dollar, weakening by more than 2%. And U.S. stocks have broken out to new record highs.
So what’s lagging or not following the message being sent by U.S. stocks? Japanese and German stocks had been the laggards going into the end of last week. Both are perhaps beginning the road of catch-up today.
But yields remain the big disconnected market.
German yields touched near record lows this morning, before finishing higher (record low was -20 basis points on the 10-year German bund). And U.S. 10-year yields, which traded as low as 1.32% last week, are moving higher, following the broader positive sentiment of the day.
With that, as we’ve said, we think Europe has an excuse to greenlight fiscal stimulus for constituent EU countries as well. With contagion remaining the big risk associated with Brexit, government spending packages in Europe can be the relief valve for all of the pressure of rising nationalist movements in Europe and overall discontent that underpins the ‘leave’ spillover risk.
The Japanese news might be a good kick starter for cementing the bottom on this Brexit influence on global markets, but it may take Europe to follow their lead, with fiscal stimulus, before the storm is fully passed.
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Earlier this week we said the Brexit drama would likely be dethroned, by Friday, as the dominant market narrative. Why? Because it’s jobs week.
As we’ve said in the past, this (non farm payrolls/job creation) is the data point that market participants and the media have been trained for decades to over analyze/over-emphasize. As you might recall, last month the number was a big negative surprise. For a payroll number that’s been averaging about 200k jobs a month, the number in June came in at 38k – a huge miss on expectations (which was revised even lower today). Still, the S&P 500 opened that day at 2104 and closed at 2099, not far off of record highs.
Today the S&P 500 came in very near from where we left off the day of the last jobs report. This time, the number was a huge positive surprise (+287k new jobs). And stocks have come within ticks of the record highs set in May of last year.
Source: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
You can see in the chart above, the events of the past year, and sharp recoveries stocks have made in every case.
As we’ve said, central banks are in control. They are in the business of maintaining stability, and with stability comes the restoration of confidence. And with confidence comes investment, hiring, spending. Stocks play a big role in that. Central banks need stocks higher — they want stocks higher.
If we look back at the path of the S&P 500 since late 2012 (when the Bank of Japan telegraphed its massive QE and reform plans), and the many potential crises that have come and gone along the way, in all cases, stocks have come back to new highs. And in most cases, the recovery has been very quick.
We had eight declines of close to 5% or more in the S&P 500 from late 2012 to late 2014. In each case, the decline was fully recovered in less than two months. In most cases, the decline was recovered inside of one month. This is an amazing fact, yet many people have continued to focus on trying to pick a top or purging at the bottom, rather than preparing to buy the dip.
The most recent drawdown for stocks, which can be measured from the May 2015 high, has been a solid 15% correction and is on the verge of fully recovering now, after a nearly 14 month duration.
But the sharp declines, within this longer drawdown period, have also been quickly recovered along the way (the Brexit, within just weeks). This has been crucial. Why? The quick recovery time for stock market declines in the world’s key market barometer (the S&P 500) has contributed greatly to the stability of global confidence, which has kept the global economic recovery on the rails. What Stocks Should You Buy? Follow The Lead Of Great Investors Like Warren Buffett In Our Billionaire’s Portfolio
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Remember when China devalued the yuan back in August of last year? The world went into a frenzied panic. Was China going to do a massive one-off devaluation? That was the fear that quickly triggered selling across global stock markets and bids in safe-havens (like bonds and gold).
Like the Brexit, not many could tell you why they were afraid of a yuan devaluation. In fact, most didn’t even know that it was a relatively minor adjustment (that day), and that the devaluation of the yuan had already been underway since early 2014.
For some context, it’s important to understand that China had been, since 2005, slowly allowing their currency (the yuan) to appreciate — mainly versus the dollar.
It was China’s weak currency policy (i.e. manipulation) that was a large contributor to the credit bubble and burst, and the mass global capital and trade imbalances that remain as a major structural flaw in the global economy that feeds cycles of credit booms and busts.
The currency was their tool to corner the world’s export market — to be the exporter to the world. They did it very successfully, and with little pushback for more than a decade. And they ascended to one of the largest economies in the world in the process, stockpiling the world’s largest currency reserves.
With that, back in 2005, the leading economies in the world, led by the U.S., finally began threatening China with draconian tariffs IF they didn’t abandon their unfair currency policies.
It was at that point that China finally made a concession, to ward off the political and economic backlash. They agreed to slowly allow the yuan to appreciate by abandoning their peg to the dollar, and creating a trading band around (primarily) the dollar.
In the chart below, you can see the peg (the straight line on the left side of the chart). And you can see the policy change – the declining line represents the dollar falling in value vs. the Chinese yuan.
Source: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
Who determines where the yuan trades in that band? China. So for 10 years, China allowed its currency to climb by only a meager 3% a year against the dollar. That was enough to keep all of the protectionist threats at bay. Meanwhile, their economy was growing at a double digit pace on average – which was a net big win, and that kept their global market share grab growing. Even in the early stages of the global economic crisis, people thought China could take the torch and carry on with breakneck economic growth (Wall Street was telling us to pour our money into China and other emerging markets). But soon China was exposed as heavily reliant on a healthy developed market world. A healthy global consumer and a weak currency happened to be the magic formula after all. And they’ve since been growing at about half the rate they were in the mid 2000s, which feels like recession, if not depression, in the Chinese economy.
Here’s a look at Chinese GDP growth …
Source: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters
So now, with the Chinese economy in a rut, the Chinese have tried a variety of monetary and fiscal stimulus measures but none have reversed the decline in growth. Chinese growth at these levels is a real threat to
social stability – something the government is always very mindful of.
With that, enter the reversal of the yuan appreciation program of the past decade. As of today, the yuan is 10% cheaper against the dollar than it was in early 2014. Now, this path has been widely viewed as a signal of potential danger, raising such questions like: 1) Are things worse than we think in China? Or 2) Will this provoke more protectionist actions from Chinese trading partners and geopolitical tensions?
But it could actually be quite positive for the global economy, at least near term. If China devalues in a slow and orderly way, and it gets their economy going, it could be a much needed spark plug for global growth. If so, maybe it’s time to finally buy Chinese stocks. You can see in the chart below, a weaker yuan tends to mean higher stocks in China.
Source: Billionaire’s Portfolio, Reuters What Stocks Should You Buy? Follow The Lead Of Great Investors Like Warren Buffett In Our Billionaire’s Portfolio
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On Friday we looked at four key market charts that suggested the worst of the Brexit storm may be behind us.
As of Friday afternoon, the bookmakers had the odds of the UK staying in the Eurozone at 64%, versus 36% leaving. And as we looked across the prices of gold, oil and stocks, all were suggesting, at least technically, that the peak of fear, regarding a Brexit, had passed.
Gold was rising sharply early last week. Oil began to slide. These are two very important barometers of global risk appetite, and those moves were clearly demonstrating fear and uncertainty in markets.
But on Thursday, gold put in a key reversal signal. So did oil, on Friday. Those reversals continued today. Additionally, a very key bond market in Germany (the German 10 year bund yield), which traded into negative yield territory at one point last week, has been clawing back into positive territory since Friday (trading above 5 basis points today – positive 5 basis points).
Why? Because of this chart…
Above is an update of the bookmaker odds on a Brexit. The chances of a leave have now dropped from 44% to 25%, since Thursday.
That’s why global markets are aggressively taking back the hedging and selling from last week.
The UK vote is this Thursday. We’ve said months ago, that despite the speculation of a UK exit, it was not going to happen, given where the oddsmakers were pricing the risk (at about 70/30 in favor of staying for much of the way), and given the scale of the “fear of the unknown” in the voter’s eyes. Adding to that, we expected that the warnings from big public figures would come in hot and heavy as the date approached. Type in the words “Brexit” and “warning” into Google and you get almost 7 million results.
Already, everyone has weighed in with draconian warnings in an attempt to influence the decision: from the UK Prime Minister, the head of the Bank of England, the head of the IMF, to the ECB, to the Fed and the U.S. President. Now UK employers have been latest, directly writing their employees to warn of the business damage from a ‘leave’ vote.
If the Brexit risk continues to abate, and the referendum comes and goes on Thursday, with a ‘stay’ vote, that should clear the way for broad global stock market rallies and a sharp bounce back in yields, as the focus will quickly turn to a July Fed rate hike.
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Last week we talked a lot about the German bund yield, the most important market in the world right now. Today we want to talk about how to trade it.
The best investors in the world love asymmetric bets (limited downside and virtually, if not literally, unlimited upside). That’s the true recipe to building huge wealth. And there is no better asymmetric bet in the world right now than the German 10-year bund.
With that in mind, in recent weeks, we’ve revisited Bill Gross’ statement last year, when the 10-year government bond yields in Germany were flirting with zero the first time. He called it the “short of a lifetime” to be short the price of German bunds – looking for yields to bounce back. It happened. And it happened aggressively. Within two months the German 10 year yield rocketed from 6 basis points to over 100 basis points (over 1%). But even Gross himself wasn’t on board to the extent he wanted to be. The bounce was so fast, it left a lot of the visionaries of this trade behind.
But over the past year, it’s all come back.
Is it a second chance? German yields are hovering just a touch above zero — threatening to break into negative yield territory for one of the world’s most important government bond markets.
As we said on Friday, the zero line on the German 10-year government bond yield is huge psychological marker for perceived value and credibility of the ECB’s QE efforts. And that has huge consequences, not just for Europe, but for the global economy.
Given the importance of this level (regarding ECB credibility), it’s no surprise that the zero line isn’t giving way easily. This is precisely why Bill Gross called it the “short of a lifetime.” With that, let’s take a look at the incredible risk/reward this represents, and a simple way that one might trade it.
There is a euro bund future (symbol GBL) that tracks the price of the German 10-year bund. Right now, you can trade 1 contract of the German bund future at a value of 164,770 euros by putting up margin of 3,800 euros (the overnight margin at a leading retail broker). If you went short the bund future, here are some potential scenarios:
If you break the zero line in yield, the euro bund future would trade up to about 165.50 (it currently trade 164.77). If you stopped out on a break of zero in yield, you lose 730 euros (about $820 per contract). If the zero line doesn’t breach, and yields do indeed bounce from here, you make about 1,500 euros for every 10 basis point move higher in the German 10-year bund yield.
For example, on a bounce back to 32 basis points, where we stood on March 15th, the profit on your short position would be about 4,600 euros (or about $5,200). If German bund yields don’t breach zero and bounce back to 1%, where it traded just a year ago, you would make about 15,000 euros ($16,900) per contract on your initial risk of $820 – a 20 to 1 winner. Of course, there are margin costs to consider, given the holding period of the trade, but in a zero rate world, it’s relatively small.
If you’re wrong, and the German 10-year yield breaches zero, you’ll know it soon.
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In the middle of June we have perhaps the two biggest events of the year. On June 15 the Fed will decide on rates. And hours later, that Wednesday night, the Bank of Japan will follow with its decision on policy.
This is really the perfect scenario for the Fed. The biggest impediment in its hiking cycle/”rate normalization process” is instability in global financial markets. Market reactions can lead to damage to consumer sentiment, capital flight and tightening in credit—all the things that can spawn the threat of a global economic shock, which can derail global recovery. Clearly, they are very sensitive to that. On that note, the Brexit risk, while a hot topic in the news, is priced by experts as a low probability.
So, the Fed has been setting expectations that a second hike in its tightening cycle could be coming this month. But the market isn’t listening. The market is pricing in just a 23% chance of a hike in June. But as we’ve said, markets can get it wrong, sometimes very wrong. We think they have it wrong this time. We think there is a much better chance. Why? Because they know the BOJ is right behind them. If they do hike, any knee jerk hit to financial markets can be quelled by more easing from the BOJ.
Remember, as we’ve discussed quite a bit in our daily notes, central banks remain in control. The recovery was paid for by a highly concerted effort by the world’s top economic powers and central banks. And despite the perceived hostility over currency manipulation, the powers of the world understand that the U.S. is leading the way out of recovery, and that Europe and Japan are critical pieces in the global recovery. The ECB and BOJ have been passed the QE torch from the Fed to both fuel recovery and promote global economic stability. And playing a major role in that effort is a weaker euro and a weaker yen.
The Bank of Japan is operating with one target in mind, create inflation. Now three years into their massive program, they haven’t posted a positive monthly inflation number since December. Inflation is still dead, just as it has been for the past two decades. So, not only do they have the appetite and global support to do more, but the data more than justifies more action.
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