Billionaire investor, Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, has one of the best investing track records in the world.
When you add back fees, Ackman has returned 1,199% since starting his fund in 2004. That compares to 119% in the S&P 500 for the same period. That’s ten times better than the S&P 500.
His short position on Herbalife has been very well documented. In his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, he said “it will” go to zero, and he confidently said his fund is “very short.” This comes after the stock has halved since July of last year.
A billionaire face-off on Herbalife started early 2013, following a presentation by Ackman at the Ira Sohn investment conference in New York, where he made the case for his Herbalife short. It included the accusation that Herbalife was running a ponzi-scheme. At that time, the stock was trading the mid $30s. Months later, billionaires Dan Loeb and Carl Icahn both took shots at Ackman’s thesis, and took long positions in the stock, attempting to squeeze Ackman. It worked, for a while. The stock ultimately ran up to $81 in January of 2014.
Ackman says they “bought a lot of put options” on that run up, “in the $70s and $80s.” Now HLF shares are trading back in the $30s, and Ackman says it’s a race to the bottom. He thinks the stock will either hit zero or the government will step in before that, and shut them down.
At this point, Ackman’s campaign against Herbalife is looking quite good.
Love him or hate him, Ackman is one of the best performing investors on the planet, and for average investors, his portfolio might be one of the easiest to replicate. We know about his Herbalife position. Here’s a look at the seven publicly reported core holdings of Ackman’s $18+ billion Pershing Square fund, as of its recent SEC disclosures. These are positions where Pershing owns more than 5% of a company:
Allergan AGN NaN% (AGN) – AGN represents 34% of his portfolio. He has a $6 billion stake in the company.
Air Products & Chemicals APD +0.72% (APD) – APD represents 17% of his portfolio. He has a $3.1 billion stake.
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP) – CP represents a 14% of his portfolio. He has a $2.6 billion stake.
Burger King Worldwide, Inc. (BKW) – BKW represents 8.5% of his portfolio. He has a stake worth $1.1 billion.
Platform Specialty Products Corp (PAH) – PAH represents 5% of his portfolio. He has a stake worth about $940 million.
The Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC) – HHC represents 3% of his portfolio. He has a stake of $510 million.
Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) – ZTS is a relatively new addition to his portfolio. According Pershing’s recent 13d filing, it has a stake representing about 10% of the Pershing portfolio, or a position valued at about $1.8 billion.
Ackman’s Pershing Square fund also holds small stakes in Fannie and Freddie Mac, as well as at least two undisclosed small positions. But Ackman has more than 75% of his fund’s money in just four stocks – long positions. That shows extraordinary conviction, and it also means he can’t afford to lose. That conviction and confidence is present only because he has the ability to gain control of, and influence on, the companies he invests in.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012.
These days everyone is familiar with big-brand activism, led by billionaires Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman.
Icahn has often made a splash in the media in the past year, using his influence and voice to push for change in big companies. And it works. He has made a huge impact for shareholders in Apple and Netflix. But even though both Icahn and Ackman continue to produce tremendous returns, they have limitations on what activist campaigns they can pursue.
They have size constraints, too. Both run multi-billion dollar portfolios, which all but rules out their ability to participate in smaller company investments. And that’s where smaller funds have an advantage.
One of the best, smaller, and lesser-known activist hedge funds we follow in The Billionaires Portfolio is Becker Drapkin. Becker Drapkin is a $300 million small cap activist hedge fund with an outstanding record of selecting big winners. Their average activist campaign (i.e. stock investment) has returned 130%.
Below are the top four stocks in Becker Drapkin’s portfolio. In each case, the fund owns 5% or more of the stock, which gives them a controlling interest in the company. Plus, one of the biggest determinants of success in an activist campaign is the board seat, and Becker Drapkin has at least one seat on the board of directors at each of these companies.
1) Emcore (EMKR)- This is one of Becker Drapkin’ biggest positions. They own 10% of Emcore, with board seats.
2) Fuel Systems (FSYS)- Becker Drapkin owns more than 9% of FSYS, and has board seats.
3) Comverse (CNSI) – Becker Drapkin has more than 10% of their fund’s assets in this stock, with a board seat.
4) Intevac (IVAC)- Becker Drapkin owns more than 9% of this stock, and has board representation as well.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012, beating even Carl Icahn’s record for the same period.
One of the most profitable ways to piggyback the world’s best billionaire investors and hedge funds is by following their newest positions.
Over the past two weeks there has been significant buying from billionaire investors and hedge funds, which is usually a bullish sign for stocks. Let’s take a look at some of the most recent transactions:
1) Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – Legendary billionaire activist Carl Icahn recently added to his already large position in Chesapeake last week, buying 6.6 million shares at average price of $14.15. That gives Icahn an 11% stake. Chesapeake looks cheap at 9 times earnings, with a dividend yield of 2.5%, and selling at just two thirds of its book value of $21 a share.
2) Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) – Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, of Pershing Square, recently upped his stake in Valeant from 4.9% to 5.7% — at an average price of $196.72. Valeant has been a high flyer. It’s up 38% in 2015 and 54% over the past year. It’s hard to argue with Ackman’s timing. Almost every stock he has purchased over the past 2 years has gone straight up.
3) Manitowoc Company Inc. (MTW) – Billionaire hedge fund manager Larry Robbins, of Glenview Capital Management, initiated a new 6.3% position in Manitowoc — at an average price of $20.41. Manitowoc also happens to be owned by billionaire Carl Icahn. Icahn recently forced the company to split into separate companies, which could potentially unlock $10 of hidden value in this stock according to many wall street analysts.
4) EXA Corporation (EXA) – Billionaire George Soros recently purchased 1.26 million shares of EXA, or 9% of the company, at an average price of $10.10. EXA is small cap software and services company to the automotive industry that has been rumored to be an acquisition target at $16 to $20 share. That would be a 30% to 60% premium from its share price today.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012, beating even the great Carl Icahn’s record for the same period.
Despite the powerful recovery in stocks, the rally has had few believers. All along the way, skeptics have pointed to threats in Europe, domestic debt issues, political stalemates, perceived asset bubbles — you name it. As it relates to stocks, they’ve all been dead wrong.
The S&P 500 is now more than 200% higher than it was at its crisis-induced 2009 lows, and 34% higher than its all-time highs. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is still shy of its March 2000 high of 4816. That creates a scenario for an explosive rise still to come for the Nasdaq.
For those that have been cautious about the level of stocks, many have argued that the economy is fragile. The bond market disagrees. The yield curve may be THE best predictor of recessions historically. Yield curve inversions (where short rates move above longer-term rates) have preceded each of the last seven recessions. Based on this yield curve analysis, the Cleveland Fed puts the current recession risk at just 5.97% — a level more consistent with economic boom times.
With this economic backdrop in mind, our research at BillionairesPortoflio.com shows that stocks will continue to march higher, likely a lot higher.
Consider this: If we applied the long-run annualized return for stocks (8%) to the pre-crisis highs of 1,576 on the S&P 500, we get 2,917 by the end of this year, when the Fed is expected to start a slow process toward normalizing rates. That’s 38% higher than current levels. Below you can see the table of the S&P 500, projecting this “normal” growth rate to stocks.
In addition to the above, consider this: The P/E on next year’s S&P 500 earnings estimate is just 17.1, in line with the long-term average (16). But we are not just in a low-interest-rate environment, we are in the mother of all low-interest-rate environments (ZERO). With that, when the 10-year yield runs on the low side, historically, the P/E on the S&P 500 runs closer to 20, if not north of it. A P/E at 20 on next year’s earnings consensus estimate from Wall Street would put the S&P 500 at 2,454, or 16% higher than current levels for stocks.
What about the impending end to zero interest rates in the United States? Well, guess what? Asset prices are driven by capital flows. Barron’s reports a $1.63 trillion spread between bond-fund inflows and equity-fund outflows from January 2007 to January 2013, said to be the widest spread ever. Over that period, $1.23 trillion flowed into bond funds and $409 billion exited equity funds. This means, an official end to zero interest rates should mean a flood of capital leaving bond markets and entering equity markets.
Now, how might all of this bode for the Nasdaq? In March 2000 when the Nasdaq traded at its all-time highs, the index traded at well over 100 times earnings. And the ten year yield was 6.66%. As an investor, you could exit a market with record high valuations and get a risk free, nearly 7% return on your money in Treasuries. Today, the Nasdaq has a price/earnings multiple of just 21. And the ten year yield is a paltry 2%. This dynamic continues to underpin demand and capital flows favoring stocks.
With that said, here are the top four constituents in the Nasdaq 100, their current valuation and the equivalent investment option in the year 2000, when the Nasdaq last peaked.
1) Apple (AAPL) – Apple trades at just 15 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Microsoft (MSFT), the biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 57 times forward earnings.
2) Google (GOOG) – Google trades at 19 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Cisco (CSCO), the second biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 127 times forward earnings.
3) Microsoft (MSFT) – Microsoft trades at just 16 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Intel (INTC), the third biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 43 times forward earnings.
4) Facebook (FB) – Facebook trades at 39 times next year’s earnings estimates. Back in 2000, Oracle (ORCL), the fourth biggest constituent company of the Nasdaq traded 103 times forward earnings.
BillionairesPortfolio.com helps average investors invest alongside Wall Street billionaires. By selecting the best ideas from the best billionaire investors and hedge funds, our exited stock investment recommendations have averaged a 31% gain since 2012, beating even the great Carl Icahn’s record for the same period.
First, let me say this: Most people lose money trading options.
It’s a very difficult game. But if you can find an edge, the returns can be huge. One of the best option-trading hedge funds in the business, Cornwall Capital, has averaged 51% annualized over the past 10 years. That turns a mere $20,000 investment into $1.2 million, in less than 10 years.
Two of the best option strategists that have ever worked on Wall Street are Keith Miller, formerly of Citigroup, and John Marshall, of Goldman Sachs. Both Miller and Marshall happen to be Blue Jays (i.e., Johns Hopkins University grads), like me. If you can ever find any of their research studies, print them out and examine them closely. They are excellent — and will give you an edge.
Below are the rules the best hedge funds use when trading options:
Rule #1
Options are like a coin toss; you’ll be lucky if half your option trades are profitable. That is why you have to make sure you get paid for the risk you take.
Only trade an option if your projected return is a triple or better. To do this you will have to buy an out-of-the-money option. And you should go out at least two months, preferably longer. Now, here’s the math:
Let’s say you make 40 option trades a year. Odds are at best you will only make money on 50% or half of these trades. Therefore, if you had 40 options trades and 20 of those trades expired as worthless, and the other 20 option trades averaged a triple or more, you would still make 50% a year. For example, on a $40,000 account taking 40 trades a year, if 20 option trades lose everything and the other 20 trades give you an average return of 200%, your account would be worth $60,000, giving you a 50% return.
So $20,000 would go to zero on the option trades that expired worthless. The other $20,000 would go to $60,000 on a 200% return.
Rule #2
Price predicts a stock’s earnings and fundamentals 90% of the time. According to Keith Miller of Citigroup, a stock will start to move one to two months ahead of its earnings date, in the direction of the earnings report. This means if a stock starts trending higher or breaks out higher before the company reports earnings, the earnings report will be positive 90% of the time.
Rule #3
When you are buying options on a stock, make sure the stock is owned by an influential investor or activist. These investors, such Carl Icahn, Barry Rosenstein of Jana Partners and the rest, are always working behind the scenes to push the companies to unlock value; this can come in the form of incremental positive change or big one-time catalysts. This positive announcement or catalyst usually emerges after the stock has moved up in price. So when you see an activist-owned stock breaking out, or trending higher, there is usually a good chance change is coming. Thus, you’ll want to buy calls on this stock immediately.
Rule #4
Only trade an option if there is an event or catalyst that will reprice the stock. This could be an earnings announcement, a company’s Investor Day or an annual meeting.
Rule #5
Only buy options when both implied volatility and historical volatility are cheap. Be a value buyer of options. Watch volatility. Buy volatility only when it’s cheap.
A perfect example of an option trade that fits all of the above criteria is Walgreens ($WAG).
> Jana Partners, run by billionaire Barry Rosenstein — one of the top 5 activist hedge funds on the planet — owns more than $1 billion of Walgreen’s stock. That’s more than 10% of the fund’s overall assets invested in Walgreen’s (Jana has $10 billion under management). Even better, they just added to their position last week, buying $77 million more during the market correction.
> Walgreen (WAG) just broke out of a consolidation pattern, and it looks like it is ready to make a big run (see chart below).
> Walgreen reports earnings on December 22nd. So whichever way the stock moves over the next month or two will predict whether the company’s earnings are positive or negative. Based on the stock’s current price momentum, the report will be positive.
> The Walgreen $65 calls are cheap, especially since they expire only two days before the company reports earnings. You can buy the Walgreen December $65 calls for just $1.10. That means, at $66.10 or higher, you will make money on this option. My price target for Walgreen, based on its recent breakout, is $69. That also happens to be where Walgreen gapped previously.
> If Walgreen stock trades just 10% higher to $69 by December 20th, you will more than triple your money on this option in less than two months. This is the risk-reward profile you want when trading options. Your goal should be to make 50% a year.
Bill Ackman, in his most recent quarterly letter to his investors, just divulged a secret we have been telling our subscribers for almost three years now: If you want to get rich, piggybacking the trades of the world’s best billionaire investors and hedge funds could help you attain this goal.
Ackman stated the following in his most recent quarterly letter to his investors: “In 26 out of 30 of our activist commitments, the day-after price was still a bargain versus the ultimate price achieved from our involvement with the company.”
This means if you bought every stock Bill Ackman bought the day after it was announced, you would have made money on 26 out of 30 stocks (87%). More important, you would have made 21 times your money. That turns $100,000 into $2.1 million, or $50,000 into more than $1 million.
Over the past week, I received hundreds of emails concerning Carl Icahn’s announcement that he took an 8% position in Hertz (HTZ). We know Icahn has already publicly stated he wants to actively engage with Hertz management and its CEO, but there has been no word about Icahn pushing Hertz to merge or sell itself.
Here is why: First, regulators would never approve a Hertz-Avis merger. The two entities represent too large a share of the industry. It would essentially be a monopoly. So a merger with Avis isn’t happening — at least in my opinion.
Though, given the quick 25% run up in Family Dollar (FDO) last month after Icahn forced a merger with Dollar Tree (DLTR), it’s easy to see why investors are hoping for a similar result. Clearly, people don’t want to miss out on the next FDO. On that note, you can read some great analysis of the Family Dollar deal, where my partner and I predicted the merger and picked the bottom in Family Dollar stock (read that here).
But again, this is not going to happen with Hertz. Icahn and numerous other investors are long Hertz. Hertz is actually one of the most popular stocks owned by top billionaire hedge fund managers, because it’s a pure play on the improving economy, and rental car companies have lagged airlines in terms of raising their prices.
So many hedge funds are betting on Hertz increasing its prices, like the airlines did last year, and they are betting that demand will continue to improve with the recovery in the economy. It’s that simple.
Also, this is not a classic Icahn play. He typically comes into a deeply depressed stock selling near its 52-week low or multi-year lows. Icahn purchased Hertz near the stock’s all-time high.
But what Icahn is doing is playing his “change” card. He has recently laid out his evidence, based on his history as an activist investor, of how replacing a CEO is a powerful catalyst for producing shareholder wealth creation. And one of his fellow shareholders in Hertz is already at work on that strategy: Fir Tree Partners is pressuring the board to oust the CEO.
