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Pro Perspectives 4/2/25

 

 

 

 

 

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April 02, 2025

After the market close, the President revealed details on broad-based tariffs.
 
It starts on April 5th, with a blanket 10% on all countries.  
 
And if no movement, the escalation would be on April 9th where largely the "reciprocal" tariff plan calls for an amount that's about half of what's currently being charged on U.S. imports.
 
Excluded from tariffs are copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, bullion, energy and other critical minerals.
 
So, as Trump said in the Oval office a couple of days ago, the tariffs wouldn’t be of equal scale, but rather they would be “very nice by comparison,” and “lower than what they’ve been charging us."
 
Even so, not surprisingly, the tariffs are toughest on China.  China gets 34% and it seems to be on top of the existing 20% (the blanket China tariff was doubled from 10% to 20% early last month) — so, 54% for China.
 
Given that these details were delivered AFTER the market close, you get a reaction in thin, after-hours markets.  That means big moves.  And in this case, it was stocks down, yields down, dollar down.
 
Now, following the announcement event, Scott Bessent said this would be the high-water mark, assuming no retaliation.
 
So, we should expect plenty of countries to come to the deal table between now and April 5th, and more into the April 9th escalation date.  And with the "high-water mark" in mind, the incremental news should be in the direction of lowering tariffs. 
 

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