The Trump agenda continues to move at a rapid pace, across a variety of fronts.
He’s effectively fortified the Western Hemisphere in a matter of days, restoring American influence, and buttressing economic and national security.
Today, the Middle East: He called for maximizing economic pressure on Iran, to “drive Iran’s oil exports to zero.” He called for more Middle Eastern countries to sign the Abraham Accord, he hosted Netanyahu, and he floated a plan to take over Gaza and create a safe location to relocate Palestinians.
Russia/Ukraine: Trump demanded access to Ukrainian rare earths yesterday in exchange for America’s financial support. A day later, Zelensky said he would be willing to sit down for peace talks with Putin.
As for the EU, tariff threats have already been lobbed, and it’s probably more about restoring U.S. influence than it is balancing trade.
As you can see in this PEW Survey, China has gained significant influence over Europe, and largely stemming from its role in bailouts, following the sovereign debt crisis in Europe a little more than a decade ago.
So, the Trump agenda is moving quickly, and by necessity.
As we discussed yesterday, dealing with China is priority number one. But these other pieces need to be in place, because the Trump 2.0 trade war with China will likely require global participation (maybe putting China in the trade penalty box).
It’s a multi-front fight. It’s fighting to rebalance global trade, and weaken the global reliance on China (weaken China’s economic and political leverage).
And, related and very importantly, it’s fighting to win the AI arms race with China, which is a winner takes all.
The first to reach artificial general intelligence (AGI/human intelligence with autonomy), will likely set international standards, rules, and ethical guidelines around AI use and governance. Much like with the internet and social media, early technological dominance gives the leading nation the ability to influence frameworks on how the technology is used, regulated, and adopted globally.
It (the winner) will probably be the difference between AI that serves humanity, or AI that controls humanity (serving the interest of the Chinese Communist Party).