Following the announcement yesterday of the AI infrastructure investment (promise) by Softbank, Trump did some Q&A with the press, and said tariffs could come as early as February 1.
It's unlikely to happen before Howard Lutnick (his Secretary of Commerce nominee) is confirmed. And it looks like Lutnick's hearing will be next Wednesday.
And Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary nominee, is expected to be confirmed next week.
In his Senate hearing, Bessent said he was "100 percent on board for taking sanctions UP" on Russia, to bring them to the negotiating table.
And with that, Trump lobbed this threat today …
So, given the confirmation timelines for Lutnick and Bessent, it looks like the first half of February will be less friendly for markets.
For oil, the Biden administration on the way out of the door ramped sanctions described to be "the most significant yet" on Russia's energy sector, and oil prices spiked 9% in four days.