As a refresher, Jerome Powell maintained the stance in his November press conference that a negative surprise in the labor market was the condition to cut rates faster.
This condition has been primarily focused on the rise in the unemployment rate.
They've been most concerned with the speed of the rise, not necessarily the level.
On that note, as you can see below, the peak was July, and we've since had three lower months. The rise has stalled.
With that, in the recent commentary from Fed officials we've heard the word "stablized" to describe the unemployment rate. And Jerome Powell recently said the economy was in "very good shape."
Add to that, based on their reaction to the 2016 election, it's fair to say that the Fed is already incorporating policies from the incoming administration into their outlook — policies which should be favorable to the labor market, and boost business confidence.
So, it seems likely that this labor market condition/reaction function for the Fed (which amounts to a "Fed put") has diminished at this point.
