G20 leaders are meeting in Brazil, and we start the week with another World War III flashpoint.
Yesterday afternoon the U.S. authorized the use of its long-range missiles, by Ukraine.
Keep in mind, Putin explicitly said, months ago, that U.S. and Nato would be "at war" with Russia if authorization were given to Ukraine to use Western long-range missiles to strike inside Russia.
So, now we have a provocation that could ignite a global war, in just two months before the Trump administration enters office. Of course, entering office in a world war would likely postpone the execution of the Trump agenda, which is to radically reform the U.S. government and withdraw from the globally coordinated energy transformation agenda.
An important team member in either scenario is the Treasury Secretary. And Trump's pick for this position has swung from what looked like a done deal last week, to a four man race.
The betting market now has Kevin Warsh as the likely nominee. He was a candidate Trump considered for Fed Chair in 2018.
This is a strange one, in that Warsh has a well-documented history of skepticism on the use of tariffs, which has been a key part of the Trump agenda, primarily to leverage against China's currency manipulation/unfair trade practices. Warsh believes in cooperation and out-competing China.
The other candidate, Scott Bessent, understands China is enemy #1.
He says the best thing Trump did in his first term was to wake everyone up to the wealth transfer to China — driven by decades of China's deliberate manipulation of the value of the yuan (keeping it cheap), in order to corner the world's exports.
This wealth transfer and transfer of economic leverage has led to the blackmail and bribery schemes the Chinese Communist Party has executed on Western world leaders — which has led us to our current state.
Bessent also understands the vulnerable position Yellen has left us, by financing the largest peacetime deficit with a substantial proportion of T-bills, which will have to be rolled over by the new administration, leaving us vulnerable to a financial event.
He also understands the tailwinds of AI, and the opportunity for a higher potential growth rate for the economy.