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Pro Perspectives 7/18/24

 

 

 

 

 

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July 18, 2024

I had an email issue yesterday, so no note.  Unrelated, but worth noting again, with the election approaching the big email services are tightening up security features (more like suppression features, related to key words), which can make it more difficult for these emails to get to your inbox. 
 
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Now, let's talk about the lengthy and unsurprisingly slanted article from Bloomberg on the Trump policy agenda that has created some waves in markets. 
 
This article was from a sit down interview back in June. 
 
This was clearly an example of Bloomberg doing an interview to elicit quotes to support the story they already planned to write — very common in a media world that works with the objective of shaping public opinion rather than reporting.
 
To their credit, they published the transcripts of the interview.  So we can see what was actually said.
 
So, let's do a little compare and contrast, on an interview that triggered a nearly 3% sell-off in tech stocks, and a slide in the dollar yesterday. 
 
On the Fed …
 
Bloomberg said Trump "warned" the Fed "should abstain from cutting rates before the November election" as it would give the economy and Biden "a boost."  He said, it's something that they know they shouldn't be doing."  
 
The Financial Times, from that article, wrote this headline (as did many in major financial media) …
 
 
What did he actually say, from the transcript?
 
He said, "inflation is a country buster."  He talked about "old Germany."  And he says inflation "eventually breaks a country … and so you know, you can't" (lower interest rates right now).    So, he said the Fed has a "dream that they want to lower interest rates" but "they are in a very tough (spot) right now."   
 
He says he would focus on lowering costs.  Because if you lower costs, then you can lower rates.  His plan is to cut costs by focusing on energy, to offset (for the moment) the higher costs associated with interest rates.
 
So he said of the Fed, "they want to try and do it" (i.e. lower rates), and "maybe they will do it prior to the election" (in response to Bloomberg's question), but "it's something they know they shouldn't be doing."   So his statement that they "shouldn't do it" is in reference to the dangers of inflation.
 
While he may be talking his book (very likely), it wasn't about "warning" or trying to intimidate the Fed as the Bloomberg article suggested. 
 
He wouldn't even take the bait when the questioner continued by asking if he were reelected, if he would nudge the Fed to cut rates faster.  
 
Trump's response:  "Well, you have to get other costs down, you cannot suffer inflation."  
 
On Big Tech …
 
On tech stocks, the article noted that Trump "took aim at the U.S. tech industry" during his presidency, including launching "antitrust probes" into Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google.  It also noted that he signed an executive order "reducing legal protections" for the big platform companies under Section 230.
 
Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protects the big social media platforms from liability associated with the content posted by their users, but also protects them from liability associated with removing harmful content.
 
Trump's executive order in 2020 simply clarified that Section 230 was not intended to provide protection to these companies to censor viewpoints of national discourse. 
 
The Bloomberg article goes on to say that "Trump wants to personally dominate" the big tech companies.
 
Here's what he actually said in the interview transcripts. 
 
He said he wouldn't ban TikTok because Facebook needs competition. 
 
But he said, he's America first.  He "doesn't want to hurt" the American big tech companies.  He wants "our companies to be the big, strong companies."
 
On Taiwan …
 
The Bloomberg article says "he's at best lukewarm about standing up to Chinese aggression." 
 
In the transcripts, Trump was posturing.   He noted "they did take out 100% of our chip business." He also implied, that China doesn't have the incentive to "bombard" Taiwan, as "they don't want to lose all those chip plants" that they rely on, as does the rest of the world.
 
Keep in mind, he spent two years of his first term fighting to end China's multi-decade economic warfare that created the global imbalances that have delivered the frequent economic booms and busts (primarily driven by China's currency manipulation, which has enabled them to corner the world's exports).
 
Also keep in mind, the Trump administration called China "enemy number one."
 
The Biden administration has called China, all along, just a "strategic competitor." 
 

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