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| October 13, 2023
The Yom Kippur War started on October 6, 1973. It began by a surprise attack on Israel by Egypt and Syria. Almost 50 years to the day (50 years and one day), Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel (last Saturday). The similarities to that period don’t stop there. In 1973, U.S. inflation was hot at the time. The U.S. President was facing the threat of impeachment. And U.S. superpower status was being challenged by the Soviets (now by China). What happened days into the Yom Kippur War? An oil embargo. As leverage against the Western world’s support for Israel (namely, the United States’ support), OPEC banned the sale of oil to Western countries. Oil prices did this … Will this history rhyme? Keep in mind, over the past eight years, the Western world has explicitly colluded to kill fossil fuels, which is the historic life blood of OPEC member economies. With that, as we’ve discussed here in my daily notes, we already have this dividing line from the global climate agenda, where the Western world’s war on fossil fuels has pushed Middle East, Russia and China closer together. The dividing line between the Western world and OPEC is now more clear, with the events of the past week. Could we see a retaliatory oil embargo? |