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The purple line in this chart is the 10-year yield. This is the benchmark market-determined interest rate, which is the basis for setting many consumer rates.
As you can see, market interest rates (purple line) have moved in the opposite direction of the Fed (orange line), through the past few rate hikes. So, as the Fed was (and still is) projecting 5.1% as the ultimate stopping point for the Fed Funds rate, the 10-year has traded as low as 3.32% over the past month.
Keep in mind, as the bond king, Bill Gross, has pointed out, historically the 10-year yield trades, on average, 90 basis points ABOVE the Fed Funds rate. On that note, the bond market is thought to be the "smart money." Does that mean it's right on the recession forecast?
If the bond market were that "smart" why didn't the 10-year yield trade north of 9% when inflation was brewing in 2021?
Why? Because the government bond markets have been highly manipulated by central banks, globally — suppressing market interest rates. It's safe to assume that's the only reason, at this stage, the benchmark 10-year yield trades in this 3%-4% range.
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