X

Pro Perspectives 12/22/22

Pro Perspectives 12/22/22

Please add bryan@newsletter.billionairesportfolio.com to your safe senders list or address book to ensure delivery.  

 
December 22, 2022
 
We are nearing the end of the year, with a negative return for stock investors.  And a negative return for bond investors.
 
Remember, we looked at this chart below back in October, for perspective on how this year compares to history.  
As you can see, it has been an outlier year for the the trusty 60% equity/40% bond portfolio.   The only good news is that it has improved since October (when I made this chart) — now down 23%.  It's no longer the worst year on record.
 
Let's take a look at how stocks have fared, historically, coming out of years that have shared the following two features:  a negative 60/40 return, contributed to by a negative annual return for both stocks (s&p 500) and bonds (t bond)
 
It's a small universe.  It happened four times, dating back to 1929. 
 
>It happened in 1931.  That was followed by a negative return year for stocks (down 9%) and a positive return year for bonds (up 9%).
 
>It happened in 1941.  That was followed by a positive year for stocks (up 19%) and a positive year for bonds (up 2%).
 
>It happened in 1969.  That was followed by a positive year for stocks (up 4%) and a positive year for bonds (up 16%). 
 
>It happened in 2018.  That was followed by a positive year for stocks (up 31%) and a positive year for bonds (up 10%).
 

Categories: Latest
Bryan: