February 11, 2022
Risk aversion hit markets this afternoon on the White House comments about the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Without speculating on the likelihood, let's just take a look at the information to be gleaned from the market response.
First, the 10-year yield completely (and quickly) reversed the move from yesterday. So, a day after a 7.5% inflation number, and chatter of 100 basis points of rate hikes by July, global capital plowed IN to U.S. Treasuries. This signals a "flight to safety," even in the face of likely depreciation in the value of Treasuries, given the rate outlook.
Another signal of flight to safety: Gold. Gold screamed higher on the White House/Ukraine news.
What didn't perform like a safe-haven asset? Bitcoin. Gold went up almost 2%. Bitcoin went down more than 2%.
For something thought to be supplanting gold, it didn't perform as such (at least today).
With the jawboning of war, what happened to oil prices? Oil was up 4.5% today. Given the global agenda to destroy fossil fuels, the underinvestment in oil exploration has led to an undersupply-meeting-pent-up-demand dynamic, which already has oil prices on path for triple-digits. Now, add in the possible effects of "wartime," and against a country that is the third largest oil producer in the world.