June 16, 2021
The Fed now sees growth this year coming in at 7%. It sees unemployment falling to 4.5% (historically a level considered to be "full employment"). And it sees inflation running at 3.4% (right around the long-term average).
All of this, and Jay Powell wasn't once questioned today on why the Fed is still (right now) running an emergency monetary policy program. This program is explicitly structured to promote lending and investing. Thanks to these policies, both investing and lending are at record levels. Goals achieved.
So, given the Fed's own projections on the economy for this year, and given the achievement of its goals on lending and investing, it should be exiting these emergency policies. Not in 2023. Not in 2022. But now.
So what did the Fed do today? They did nothing on the policy front. Of course, that is no surprise. But the consensus takeaway from the meeting and Jay Powell's press conference today was considered "somewhat hawkish."
My takeaway, "somewhat hawkish" doesn't cut it. This meeting only pours gasoline on the asset price fire. Given the economic scoreboard we listed above, every day that goes by that the Fed continues to keep the throttle wide open, the further the Fed gets behind on what will become an ugly fight against inflation.
With that, it has been a "buy everything" market since the Fed and Capitol Hill went all-in last year — flooding the economy with money, to inflate asset prices and deflate debt. The "buy everything" market continues.