Pro Perspectives 6/26/20

June 26, 2020

Yesterday we talked about the context around the rising virus cases.
 
Again, we are beginning to see the degree to which positive tests are asymptomatic. It's early.  It's not surprising. 
 
Remember, in New York, back in April, they did an antibody study on 3,000 people across the state of New York. They found that 14% had the antibodies.  In New York city, it was 21%.  These are people that didn't know they had been infected.
 
That would extrapolate out to as many as 1.7 million people walking around New York City (prior to the lock down) that were asymptomatic.  That would mean 2.7 million people statewide.  How many have tested positive so far?  Now, through June,  New York has 415,000 cumulative cases.  That's a factor of 6.5. 
 
The CDC now estimates that there's more like 10 asymptomatic cases walking around for every 1 positive symptomatic case.  
 
So, what's different today, relative to April, when New York did this study?  The difference, young people are getting tested.  Why?  Assumably, as socialization has increased with economies opening, they may have come in contact with someone that has tested positive. They may be required by employers to return to work.  They may be required by schools to return to school. 
 
But don't underestimate the likelihood that politics are involved. Remember, we've talked a lot about mail-in voting.  As we discussed back in April, mail–in voting will likely be the determining force in the November election (mail–in or walk-up voting).  It will dramatically increase voter participation, which is a direct benefit for the Democratic party.
 
The Democrats lost traction on it, when the trajectory of the health crisis improved and economies started opening up.  Their case, that people would be risking their lives to go to the polls, was weakened dramatically. 
 
Now, with "spikes in cases" and with talks of another round of stimulus in the works, as we discussed last week, they are looking for a way to cram "mail–in voting" into the bill.  That would probably seal the election for them.  But as we also discussed last week, the Republicans would then have no choice but to outright block another package.