Pro Perspectives 8/2/19

August 2, 2019

We have global monetary policy now pointing south (including the Fed). And the perception of an indefinite trade war, feeds the market's belief that global central banks will do more (maybe a lot more).

That puts gold back into the crosshairs. Gold was among the biggest movers yesterday.

As you can see in the chart, gold has broken out of this sideways range of the past six years.

We're still about 35% away from the 2011 highs. Those highs were, of course, induced by fears that QE would lead to runaway inflation. Inflation didn’t materialize. And the price of gold was nearly cut in half over the next few years. Following massive global QE, deflation remains the bigger risk.

But now money is moving into gold as a general store of value in a time of heightened global tensions and economic risk. As I've said, gold is sold as a hedge against inflation, but it's really a hedge against the worst-case scenario.

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