Unfortunately, the influence Trump tried to wield late last year, is probably why the Fed hiked in December — just to prove to the world that they (the Fed) wouldn’t be politically influenced.
With that, we now have an economy growing at 3%+, stocks near record highs and subdued inflation. And yet we have a ten-year yield at 2.5%. It doesn’t fit. The interest rate market is still sending the message that the December rate hike was a mistake.
With that, if we did get a cut by this summer, I suspect the interest rate market would adjust to reflect a more optimistic economic outlook. By that, I mean, with a cut in the Fed funds rate, the long end of the yield curve (specifically, 10-year yields) would probably go UP not down –steepening the yield curve.