Billionaire's Portfolio

Crude oil closes the week near three-month highs.  This one looks like a run back to the $70s is coming.  Like the last runup from the $40 to the $70s in oil, people are (again) starting to convince themselves that there is a supply glut and that demand somehow isn’t strengthening with global economic growth near the best levels in a decade.  A U.S./China deal is a catalyst for a lift-off in commodity prices, including oil … 

The most important chart is this one…

With the Fed now in a ‘wait and see’ position, we’ve had the most important interest rate market in the world (the U.S. 10-year yield) back off from 3.25% to 2.66%.  With inflation tame and economic data solid, the interest rate market has gone from a headwind to a tailwind (for global risk taking) within just the past six weeks.

That makes this next chart (of Emerging Market stocks) one of the most compelling.  We have a big technical breakout this year, though the EM index has been relatively quiet this week, despite a very strong U.S. stock market.  This may be the chart to watch next week…