The February inflation report this morning showed core inflation falling to the slowest rate since April of 2021.
As you can see in this chart, the disinflation trend remains well intact.
That said, this number continues to be propped up by stale rent data, known in the CPI report as "Owners' equivalent rent" (OER).
OER represents more than one-third of the year-over-year headline CPI reading, and yet the data on the current rent climate show a national median asking rent in decline for the better of part of the past two years.
And the Fed has acknowledged the lagging features, or "base effects," in the data (when it suits them). Which means, not only do they have the most restrictive policy stance among the major central banks, they are actually more restrictive than this chart reflects …
And not too surprisingly, with the highest real rates among major central bank peers, the Fed's policy stance is delivering the lowest stock market returns among the group (since the launch of respective easing cycles).
